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Sun is cooling. Are we heading for another Little Ice Age? Or Worse: Back to Ice Age?

Graph of average yearly sunspot numbers showing the 11-year solar cycle.
Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc.

In a journal of the American Astronomical Society, The Astrophysical Journal Letters,  an article:
Ultraviolet Flux Decrease Under a Grand Minimum from IUEShort-wavelength Observation of Solar Analogs  (link)
 and : 


We have identified a sample of 33 Sun-like stars observed by the International Ultraviolet Explorer(IUE) with the short-wavelength spectrographs that have ground-based detections of chromospheric Ca ii H+K activity. Our objective is to determine if these observations can provide an estimate of the decrease in ultraviolet (UV) surface flux associated with a transition from a normal stellar cycle to a grand-minimum state. The activity detections, corrected to solar metallicity, span the range $-5.16\lt \mathrm{log}{R}_{{HK}}^{{\prime} }\lt -4.26$, and eight stars have log ${R}_{{HK}}^{{\prime} }\lt -5.00$. The IUE-observed flux spectra are integrated over the wavelength range 1250–1910 Å, transformed to surface fluxes, and then normalized to solar B − V. These normalized surface fluxes show a strong linear relationship with activity ${R}_{{HK}}^{{\prime} }$ (R 2 = 0.857 after three outliers are omitted). From this linear regression we estimate a range in UV flux of 9.3% over solar cycle 22 and a reduction of 6.9% below solar cycle minimum under a grand minimum. The 95% confidence interval in this grand-minimum estimate is 5.5%–8.4%. An alternative estimate is provided by the IUE observations of τCet (HD 10700), a star having strong evidence of being in a grand-minimum state, and this star's normalized surface flux is 23.0 ± 5.7% lower than solar cycle minimum.

What does it mean?
The Encyclopædia Britannica explains:


  1. But all the funniest comedians agree that Climate Change is a great danger. All the best actors, too! Who are we to argue with them?

  2. Nobody wants to be labeled as a heretic. While a scientist may not be burned at the stake or imprisoned (although some of the warmists want to punish heretics), a scientist has to acknowledge the Church of Global Warming or he or she threatens their career. So by not challenging the dogma of the one true church and by including that dogma in their presentation, the scientist is free to publish actual research.


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