To get a better idea of how climate change can worsen conflict there, GlobalPost spoke with three experts on the topic: Drew Sloan of energy efficiency company Opower, Marshall Burke of the University of California, Berkeley and Josh Busby of the University of Texas at Austin.
Their short answer? It's complicated, but climate change is making things harder for those who live in a politically unstable and economically challenged region.NCTCS blog wonders if this is before the 17+year stall in the global warming. They asked the three experts:
What role is climate change playing in conflicts across the Sahel?Drew Sloan:
“When you and your family have been living off the same land for generations and all of a sudden that becomes impossible, the first impact is relocation. But there’s a limited amount of land in the world so we’re going to see more and more skirmish zones.”
Well, our home-grown (and sometime alarmist) CSIRO has stated that "Deserts (are) 'greening' from rising CO2 (link)
Refering to the above report, Science Daily has announced that
Increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) have helped boost green foliage across the world's arid regions over the past 30 years through a process called CO2 fertilisationEven "Our" ABC reported that:
Rising levels of carbon dioxide have increased vegetation growth in the world's deserts by as much as 11 per cent over the last 30 years.SO, does Drew's argument hold up or is Al Qaeda looking for any excuse to attack the West?
Later, the Global Post asked:
Is the situation getting worse or better?Why not ask in the order better or worse? Was that a loaded question?
“The climate situation is almost surely getting worse. We know that temperatures are going up, and that soon they will be on average much warmer than anything the region has experienced and this is likely to increase the incidence of conflict.”But Burkey, old chap, according to the Skeptical Science Trend Calculator, temperatures this century are declining. Eg
GISTEMP 2001 to date: Trend: -0.047±0.278ºC/decadeSo, do you mean, by getting worse, the deserts are getting colder?
NOAA 2002 to date -0.032±0.165ºC/decade
HadCruT4 2002 to date -0.037±0.186ºC/decade
RSS 2002 to date -0.074±0.300ºC/decade
Why is it then that these people are blaming man made global warming for the increase in Islamic Terrorism? Is it perhaps because, in January 2010, bin Laden blamed the United States (and indirectly Australia) for Global Warming? (link)
Usama bin Laden sought to draw a wider public into his fight against the United States in a new message Friday, dropping his usual talk of religion and holy war and focusing instead on an unexpected topic: global warming.The Al Qaeda leader blamed the United States and other industrialized nations for climate change and said the only way to prevent disaster was to break the American economy, calling on the world to boycott U.S. goods and stop using the dollar.
"The effects of global warming have touched every continent. Drought and deserts are spreading, while from the other floods and hurricanes unseen before the previous decades have now become frequent," bin Laden said in the audiotape, aired on the Arab TV network Al-Jazeera.