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All Scientists are Sceptics ~Professor Bob Carter

“Climate is and always has been variable. The only constant about climate is change; it changes continually.” ~Professor Tim Patterson

Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the science of climate change is the lack of any real substance in attempts to justify the hypothesis ~Professor Stewart Franks

A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf

Saturday, August 30, 2014

Climate Change and Renewable Energy Target Scheme

Des Moore

Director - Institute of Private Enterprise

Cartoons by Josh
The adoption by the Abbot government of one of the two alternative recommendations in the Renewable Energy Target (RET) Review of policy on subsidising the production of energy from renewables (wind and sun) would involve:
  • either eliminating subsidies to new investment in renewables;
  • or limiting subsidies to 20 per cent of actual electricity demand in 2020 instead of an estimated 26% under existing policy (it is now about 17%).

The Abbott government’s decision on RETs is as important as the decision to repeal the carbon tax because a continuation of subsidies would imply acceptance of dangerous global warming. Indeed, no matter which of the alternatives is used to continue subsidies that would risk locking Australia into having a continued high proportion of energy from a highly inefficient source –either 17 or 20%. Of course, the postponement of any substantive scheme to reduce subsidies would avoid the almost certain political need to provide now some program of compensation to power producing businesses for their “lost” investment. But it would miss an opportunity unlikely to readily re-appear of establishing a scheme which over time eliminates or reduces subsidies.

The need to go further than the RET Review proposes is highlighted by the enormous cost imposed by the use of renewables, either reflected in electricity prices or in the cost to taxpayers of financing the subsidies which reduce the effect on prices. The review itself estimates that if subsidies continue under the existing scheme an additional $22 billion would have to be provided on top of the $9.4 billion already provided. Alternatively, to the extent that the costs are passed on in higher electricity prices, they will reflect the estimate by expert Alan Moran that the cost of electricity from wind mills is 2-3 times more than from fossil fuel plants and the cost from solar is much higher even than wind mills.

Relevant to this is the outdated basis of the policy of subsidising of renewable energy. That is based on the belief that continued usage of fossil fuels (coal) will cause temperatures to increase to dangerous levels. But since the subsidies were started under the Howard government, uncertainties about the dangerous warming thesis have increased to the point where there is now no justification for retaining policies which aim to reduce fossil fuels usage. That signal needs to be sent.

My letters published today (see below), which suggest that temperatures have almost certainly risen by much less than the BOM has published, provide only one example of the uncertainties. A policy which starts to phase out the provision of subsidies to investments in renewables would indicate that the government is moving away from policies involving the reduction of emissions.


Importantly, The Australian continues its lone wolf role in exposing apparent deficiencies. It is reported, for example, that while a review panel in 2011 cleared the BOM as having world best practice, that organisation has not carried out the panel’s decision to clearly explain its adjustment technology.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

BOM temperatures need a second opinion (Letter published in AFR, 29 August, 2014)

Important questions arise in addition to those posed by scientist Jennifer Marohasy regarding the adjusted (“homogenised”) temperatures published by the Bureau of Meteorology

Comparing the bureau’s adjusted temperatures for Melbourne and Laverton (about 18 kilometres away), for example, shows that the minimum temperature for Melbourne increases over time at a much faster rate than it does for Laverton (0.22+/-0.04 degrees C per decade faster).

This means the warming effect from Melbourne buildings close to recording thermometers is overlooked by BOM.

Excessive reductions by BOM to Darwin’s temperatures before 1941 (when the recording shifted to the airport) have also created an unwarranted upward bias.

Unsurprisingly, international temperature databases do not use the BOM adjusted figures for Darwin.

Arguably, the BOM should also at least draw attention to the reason for the 0.4C jump in adjusted temperatures between the average for 1910-1978 and subsequent periods. This jump is clearly due to natural rather than human influences.

There is a strong case for an independent inquiry into the adjustment methodology used by BOM.

Des Moore (Statistician)  & Tom Quirk (Physicist)
Melbourne Vic

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 


BOM’s method doubts (Letter published in The Australian, 29 Aug 2014. Square bracketed bits deleted by Ed)

In responding to David Karoly’s rejection of [scientist] Jennifer Marohasy’s research suggesting the adjusted [(homogenised)] temperature records published by the Bureau of Meteorology have an upward bias,  Michael Asten draws attention to adjusted temperatures for two weather stations which seem to confirm that (Letters, 28/8).

But comparing BOM adjusted temperatures for Melbourne and Laverton (about 18 kilometres away) suggests the same bias. Such a comparison shows that the minimum temperature for Melbourne increases over time at a much faster rate than it does for Laverton [(0.22+/-0.04 degrees C per decade faster)]. This means the warming effect from Melbourne buildings close to recording thermometers is overlooked.

It is surprising that [neither Environment Minister Hunt nor] the BOM have explained the adjustment procedures and why they suggest an upward bias. There is a strong case for an independent inquiry into BOM’s methodology.
Des Moore, South Yarra, Vic  

Thursday, August 28, 2014

When Global Warming Stopped....

Chris Dawson
Chief Executive Officer and Director
Lord Monckton Foundation

Image: WUWT
Where Global Warming stopped 18 years ago, in preparing for Natural Climate Change ‘going forward’, are we looking at Global Cooling as a possibility? If not, why not?

What happens to our democratic public policy debate when 99% of journalists and 99% of politicians are scientifically illiterate?
“.…to restore the primacy and use of reason in science and public policy worldwide, especially insofar as they may bear upon the rights of the people fairly and fully to be informed, openly and freely to debate, and secretly by ballot to decide who shall govern them, what laws they shall live by and what imposts they shall endure….”
When Global Warming stopped, did anyone ask why the settled science wasn’t working?

When Global Warming stopped, did anyone ask about the basis and the source of the two core tenets of the Global Warming faith, as indelibly and unquestioningly imprinted in the minds of journalists and politicians, namely that:

  1. 97% of scientists said they were very concerned about Global Warming; that it was happening, that it was dangerous, that it was unprecedented, and that we must act now.
  2. The Catastrophic Man-Made Global Warming science is settled and the general scientific consensus (over 97% of all scientists) says a) human carbon dioxide emissions are the main cause of, b) increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide which is the main cause of, c) our current global warming which is unprecedented, accelerating and dangerous and which is the main cause of, d) melting ice caps, rising sea levels, increasing storms, droughts, floods and extreme weather events and, e) if we don’t act now by reducing carbon dioxide emissions and paying large amounts of cash to third world dictators and UN bureaucrats we will reach an unstoppable unimaginable catastrophic tipping point.

The ‘97% of scientists’ is pure fabrication and the ‘Settled Science is clearly unSettled by an absence of warming’. Few journalists or politicians ever questioned these tenets of faith. Why?

Suppose a journalist, perhaps even you, received a copy of an internal Secret Government Report via Wiki-leaks or an A4 envelope from a senior public servant containing information on the most expensive and disruptive Public Policy Program Australia (or any western democracy) has ever seen. What would you do with it?

And suppose the Report stated categorically and with convincing supporting evidence, that in addition to the failure of the so called Settled Science Models (SSM) to match reality, that no proper Due Diligence has ever been conducted by any Australian Government Agency or any government agency anywhere, on said Public Policy, you would at least examine and check out the key points wouldn’t you?

However, the fact of the matter is that 99% of our politicians and 99% of the fourth estate are scientifically illiterate and we are therefore vulnerable as a Nation, as Eisenhower warned in his farewell address as he stepped down from the US presidency. In that same speech, where he famously warned of the danger of the Military Industrial Complex, he made one other powerful prescient warning that now haunts all western democracies:
“…..In this revolution, research has become central, it also becomes more formalized, complex, and costly. A steadily increasing share is conducted for, by, or at the direction of, the Federal government. 
Today, the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop, has been overshadowed by task forces of scientists in laboratories and testing fields. In the same fashion, the free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery, has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research. Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity. For every old blackboard there are now hundreds of new electronic computers. 
The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present – and is gravely to be regarded.Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.”
I’ll repeat and underline the last statement, “…..we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.

The most expensive and disruptive Public Policy ever perpetrated on the western world by a small clique of activist alarmist scientists, politicians and green carpet-baggers, a scientific and technological elite if you will, is that of Catastrophic Anthropogenic (man-made) Global Warming (CAGW).
As the Scottish journalist Charles Mackay in 1841 in his book, ‘Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds’ illustrated, sometimes an ill-informed political elite and a propaganda prone crowd can believe almost anything. In propaganda terms, tell the Big Emotional Lie loud enough and often enough and You Will be believed.

In our First Journalistic/Scientific Experiment/Observation we will look at the 97% of all Scientists myth.

97% of ALL SCIENTISTS AGREE that CAGW is happening. Now where does this widely cited statistic come from?

Even though Science works on the basis of empirical evidence, many journalists and politicians are influenced by consensus and so if 97% of all SCIENTISTS AGREE that CAGW is happening, then a journalist or politician isn’t going to need to look at the scientific evidence is she? Who am I to argue with 97% of all scientists, is the catch cry!

The hypothesis that a consensus of 97% of ALL SCIENTISTS AGREE that CAGW is happening, is therefore a very POWERFUL public relations line and fits the narrative that almost all scientists around the world are so concerned about CAGW that we must do something now before it is too late.
But does the evidence support the hypothesis?

You can read one source of this 97% powerful PR myth in Cook et al (John Cook, Dana Nuccitelli, Sarah A Green, Mark Richardson, Bärbel Winkler, Rob Painting, Robert Way, Peter Jacobs and Andrew Skuce) 
AbstractWe analyse the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11,944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. In a second phase of this study, we invited authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. For both abstract ratings and authors' self-ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW marginally increased over time. Our analysis indicates that the number of papers rejecting the consensus on AGW is a vanishingly small proportion of the published research.
Read the paper HERE

The second line of this abstract alone (….We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW), itself destroys the paper’s very dubious 97% conclusions.

Our contention is that:

  • the paper had erroneously and gravely over-claimed 97.1% “scientific consensus;
  • the authors had tried to conceal that they had categorized only 64 abstracts out of 11,944 as explicitly endorsing the “scientific consensus” as they had defined it;
  • even then, the authors had miscategorised 23 of the 64 abstracts as endorsing that “scientific consensus” when the 23 had not in fact endorsed it;
  • the authors had failed to disclose that their effective sample size was not 11,944 nor even 4014 papers but just 119, rendering the entire exercise meaningless;
  • on the basis that one of the authors now says was intended, that author says they had meant 87% consensus (not 97%) among just 73 abstracts (not 4014);
  • the true “scientific consensus”, after correcting an obvious error in the newly-asserted (and still strange) basis for calculation, would be 34% of just 119 abstracts;
  • the authors had failed to admit that only 1% of the 4014 abstracts they marked as expressing an opinion had endorsed the “scientific consensus” as they had defined it;
  • the authors had failed to disclose that only 0.3% of all 11,944 abstracts had endorsed that “scientific consensus”;
  • the authors had not adhered to a single definition of “scientific consensus”; and
  • that one of the authors, in a public scientific forum, continues in defiance of the truth to assert that 97.1% had “said that recent warming is mostly man made”, when very nearly all of the abstracts had neither stated nor implied any such thing.
Read our background notes HERE


In the next day or so we will send you a detailed, evidence based discussion on point 2, the collapse of the CAGW hypothesis, above.

Should anyone wish to follow up on any of the actual science in more detail or if any journalist or politician wishes to interview Lord Monckton on any of the above or anything else for that matter, for example during his Visit to Australia between the 10th September and the 1st October 2014, please feel free to contact me.

Christopher Monckton is in Australia to catch up with friends and to meet with any journalists, politicians or business leaders who wish to be brought up to date with the latest trends in international climate research and climate policy.

Regards

Chris


“…The Lord Monckton Foundation shall conduct research, publish papers, educate students and the public and take every measure that may be necessary to restore the primacy and use of reason in science and public policy worldwide, especially insofar as they may bear upon the rights of the people fairly and fully to be informed, openly and freely to debate, and secretly by ballot to decide who shall govern them, what laws they shall live by and what imposts they shall endure.”

Chris Dawson
Chief Executive Officer and Director
Ph: 03 9878 3333 - Int’l: (+61) 3 9878 3333 - Mobile: 0409 805 425
PO Box 14, Nunawading LPO, Nunawading VIC Australia 3131


Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Climate

 NZCLIMATE TRUTH NEWSLETTER NO 334

by IPCC Expert Reviewer Dr Vincent Gray

AUGUST 26TH  2014

CLIMATE

The Free Dictionary says
CLIMATE 
“The meteorological conditions, including temperature, precipitation, and wind, that characteristically prevail in a particular region.”

Dictionary.com says 
the composite or generally prevailing weather conditions of a region, as temperature, air pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunshine, cloudiness, and winds, throughout the year, averaged over a series of years.”

The Oxford English dictionary has
“The weather conditions prevailing in an area in general or over a long period.”
The common feature of all these definitions is that CLIMATE is essentially local and is confined  to a particular region or area.

A region or area may be quite small (there is even such a thing as a microclimate) but in order to have a climate the region or area must be fairly uniform. Local climates can be very different and it is not possible to provide a meaningful global average. There is no such thing as a GLOBAL climate.

Climate involves an interrelationship with a large number of meteorological and geological influences. It is very difficult, even in a more or less uniform region, to derive a scientifically or mathematically acceptable average. Climate observations hardly ever comply with  requirements for uniformity and symmetry which are needed to make use of standard statistical models.  The observations are often irregular, bimodal or skewed. Attempts to apply the popular normal distribution often claim a false uniformity or run into problems with rare events for which there are too few samples to assess regularity. The term average, therefore, often applies only to a “range” or to an opinion as to what is typical, normal, or unusual.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Glossary AR5WGI) defines “Climate” as follows:
Climate
 “Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months, to thousands or millions of years. The classical period for averaging these variables is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization. The relevant quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, Precipitation and wind.”
But then we have the following
“Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system.”
This concept of climate is different from the dictionary definition and accepted meteorological practice. It is also claimed to include a statistical description.

The Climate System is defined by the IPCC as follows (Glossary AR5WGI)
“Climate system
The climate system is the highly complex system consisting of five major components: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the lithosphere and the biosphere, and the interactions between them.
The climate system is actually a heat engine, The sun supplies radiant energy. the exhaust system is radiation to outer space, It provides yhe means for life on earth and changes to the five major components of the IPCC definition: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the lithosphere and the biosphere, and the interactions between them .

No part of this climate system is ever in equilibrium. It can be considered to consist of a very large number of three dimensional infinitesimal elements, each with an array of climate properties which change perpetually. Such a system could not possibly be provided with an overall statistical description, either transitory, or as an average, for any period,  from  current technology..

Meteorologists already provide the best that can be done in supplying a statistical description of individual localities from numerical models for each individual area, locality, or region which is used to forecast future behaviour. Its success is limited by the reliability of the physics, and the effects of chaos and complexity, to only a few weeks ahead with a very limited accuracy.

The climate system, as defined and operated by the IPCC cannot possibly equal the best of the current essentially local meteorological procedures.

It follows that no scientific or mathematically acceptable statistical description or potential future forecast is possible from the IPCC global Climate System

Cheers

Vincent Gray
Wellington 6035
New Zealand

Sunday, August 24, 2014

Alarmists' Irrational Numbers

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi is WeatherBell Analytics LLC's Chief Forecaster. In his spare time he is a body builder so is not someone to mess with.

Joe has written a piece for The Patriot Post:

Rational Thinking About Irrational Numbers

I am drawing this reference from this article from someone who I look
up to and admire – Dr. Roy Spencer. 
In the last 100 years, the amount of CO2 in the air has increased from three molecules per 10,000 molecules of air, to four molecules out of 10,000 molecules of air. 
Which means we are being asked to believe the increase of one molecule of CO2 out of 10,000 molecules of air in the last 100 years is causing catastrophic climate change that threatens mankind.
Joe then addresses  US Secretary of State John Kerry’s comments on the immense threat of a catastrophe based on out of control climate. This blog has previously addressed Kerry's flawed outspraying on AGW, eg Here and Here:
Kerry:"if it turns out that they’re wrong, then we are risking nothing less than the future of the entire planet." Surely, as your Warmists are trying to lower atmospheric CO2, you are risking nothing less than the future of the entire plane. 
CO2 is greening the planet (link, link) and, in fact, too little carbon dioxide will destroy the Earth. 
Do you realise, when you say: Ninety-seven percent of the world’s scientists tell us this is urgent,” you are quoting very flawed studies? See link, link, link. Surely you were aware that these studies were flawed, falsified fables? 
Bastardi says that a greater threat to the planet comes from the Islamic extremists. Chris Kenny agreed, he wrote in the weekend Australian:
SO if we pretend the nasty, beheading Islamist extremists aren’t really there, they’ll just go away. Right? 
Like toddlers learning to play hide and seek, we can just cover our eyes and proclaim that if we can’t see them, they must not be able to see us. The denial is that silly. 
The liberal Left in the Western world are the “useful idiots” of the Islamist extremists, encouraging us to see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil. Just weeks ago they were marching in the streets and boycotting coffee shops because Israel’s deadly self-defence killed not only Hamas extremists but hundreds of the Palestinian civilians with whom they had surrounded themselves. 
Yet the protesters fall mute when thousands of Muslims are slaughtered by the Islamic State in deliberate displays of bloodlust. 
Bastardi:
How does that hook into CO2? Which is a bigger threat to global stability: an organization like Hamas or ISIS, or the increase of one molecule of CO2 out of 10,000 molecules of air in the last 100 years? Why would anyone be even thinking about the latter, given the example of the former, unless of course the absurdity of blaming Middle East problems on climate change is the goal? (Better tell that to Jacob and Ishmael, and everyone that followed.) 
But let’s really put this whole CO2 scare (scam) in perspective, okay? 
After addressing the Mann's fraudulent hockey stick graph, Joe turns to CO2 statistics:
It is estimated that the U.S. has averaged 20% of the CO2 input from man over the last 100 years . Assuming all the increase of CO2 is man-made, that would mean in 50,000 molecules of air, the U.S. has added one molecule of CO2 in the last 100 years, while the global GDP skyrocketed. 
How much is that a year? Well we have to divide the figure above. One molecule per 50,000 in the last 100 years means we have averaged one molecule of CO2 for every 5,000,000 molecules of air per year. So we are asked to believe that is changing the climate? 
But wait, let’s think locally to act globally (I have a sweatshirt that says that). 
300,000,000 people. How many molecules of CO2 does the average American add to the atmosphere every year?
One molecule of CO2 out of every 1,500,000,000,000,000 molecules of air each year.
Joe then finishes his piece with some great wit. Hypocrite Leonardo DiCaprio gets a serve.

Read more at the Patriot Post - LINK.


BBC Alarmists admit the Global Warming Slowdown.

The BBC had its start as an eco-propaganda unit for the Global Warming Alarmist's campaign after 30 key BBC staff’ and ‘30 invited guestsattended a seminar. The Daily Mail reported that the BBC tried to hide this for  6 years:
The BBC has spent tens of thousands of pounds over six years trying to keep secret an extraordinary ‘eco’ conference which has shaped its coverage of global warming,  The Mail on Sunday can reveal. 
The controversial seminar was run by a body set up by the BBC’s own environment analyst Roger Harrabin and funded via a £67,000 grant from the then Labour government, which hoped to see its ‘line’ on climate change and other Third World issues promoted in BBC reporting. 
At the event, in 2006, green activists and scientists – one of whom believes climate change is a bigger danger than global nuclear war  – lectured 28 of the Corporation’s most senior executives. (link)
Seems like someone has taken the Kool-Aid (or is it FOOL-Aid?) from the BBC's watercoolers because this week they not only acknowledged the warming hiatus, but have raised the possibility that the

Global warming slowdown 'could last another decade'

The hiatus in the rise in global temperatures could last for another 10 years, according to new research. 

Saturday, August 23, 2014

Taking the "warming" out of Global Warming.

Didn't Tim Flannery say it would never rain again?
Image: The Australian
This blog reported on a recent address by Dr Jennifer Marohasy to the Sydney Institute on the "homogenisation" of Australia's  temperature data. (Link

Previously Jennifer had requested Verification of 2013 Temperature Record from the BoM after they had claimed that 2013 was the hottest year on record in Australia. (link)
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology takes a revisionist approach to history, changing the historical temperature record so that it accords with the theory of anthropogenic global warming. This process of homogenisation is explained in ‘Modelling Australian and global temperatures: what’s wrong? Bourke and Amberley as case studies’ (link)
On that night, the Executive Director of the Sydney Institute Gerard Henderson said that the Institute would give the Bureau of Meteorology's Manager of Climate Monitoring and Prediction, Dr David Jones an invitation for the Right of Reply. So far as this blogger knows, there has been no acceptance of that invitation.

The Environment Editor of the Australian has picked up the story
Heat is on over weather bureau ’homogenising’ temperature records
Global Cooling turns to warming 
Marohasy began researching the temperature records noted in historic

Monday, August 18, 2014

IPCC Wrong (yet again) - Professor Fred Singer


Fred Singer, American physicist and emeritus professor of environmental science at the University of Virginia, has written a piece for American Thinker with the title:


Climate Science Does Not Support IPCC Conclusions

where he addresses the two main science issues of general concern:

  1. future temperatures
  2. future sea level rise (SLR)
Global average surface temperature (GAST)
....the concern seems to be to remain below 2 deg. It should be recognized that this limit is entirely arbitrary. There is no established scientific basis for assigning special significance to it; it just happens to be the “Goldilocks” number. Here is what I mean: If one were to choose 0.5 deg, people will say “we’ve already seen that and nothing has happened.”  However, if we were to choose 5 deg, people will say, “we’ll never see that much warming -- hence of no significance.” That is why 2 deg may have become the alarmists’ choice. 
After discussing Climate Sensitivity (CS) and how,  according to the IPCC CS dropped from 4.5 to about 2.5 deg,  Professor Singer arrives at the conclusion: