Wednesday, 6 July 2016

Grand Glorieuse Growing Gradually: New Peer reviewed paper.

Map of shoreline changes on Grande Glorieuse Island between 1989 and 2003
illustrating the highly dynamic nature of this reef island.
Source: Testut et al. (2016)
There has been no mass migration from Pacific Islands being flooded due to the alleged rise in the oceans. The Maldives, who held the world's first  (and only?) underwater cabinet meeting (in 2009) to highlight the supposed effects of climate change (SLR), approved four new (underwater?) airports by 2012.

A real threat? An attempt to grab UN grants?

The Maldives government has recently awarded the Saudi Binladin group a massive project to construct a new passenger terminal at the Ibrahim Nasir International Airport.

Looks like the rising oceans scare from the alarmists has been busted.

Grand Glorieuse Growing Gradually

According to the "great source of knowledge" Wikipedia, The Glorieuses or Glorioso Islands are a group of French islands and rocks totalling 5 square kilometres (1,200 acres), at 11°33′S 47°20′E, in the Indian Ocean about 160 kilometres (99 mi) northwest of Madagascar.

Peer reviewed paper published in 
Acta Oecologica 72: 110-119: 
Testut, L., Duvat, V., Ballu, V., Fernandes, R.M.S., Pouget, F., Salmon, C. and Dyment, J. 2016. Shoreline changes in a rising sea level context: The example of Grande Glorieuse, Scattered Islands, Western Indian Ocean. (LINK)


This paper provides baseline data on absolute and relative sea level variations and shoreline changes in the Scattered Islands region of the Indian Ocean, based on aerial image analysis, satellite altimetry and field observations and in situ measurements from the 2009 and 2011 TAAF scientific expeditions. The analysis shows the importance of regular observations and monitoring of these islands to better understand reef island responses to climate stressors. We show that Grande Glorieuse Island has increased in area by 7.5 ha between 1989 and 2003, predominantly as a result of shoreline accretion: accretion occurred over 47% of shoreline length, whereas 26% was stable and 28% was eroded. Topographic transects and field observations show that the accretion is due to sediment transfer from the reef outer slopes to the reef flat and then to the beach. This accretion occurred in a context of sea level rise: sea level has risen by about 6 cm in the last twenty years and the island height is probably stable or very slowly subsiding. This island expansion during a period of rising sea level demonstrates that sea level rise is not the primary factor controlling the shoreline changes. This paper highlights the key role of non-climate factors in changes in island area, especially sediment availability and transport. We also evidence rotation of the island, underscoring the highly dynamic nature of reef islands. (bold added)

CO2 Science reviewed this paper.

Introducing their study, Testut et al. (2016) write that reef islands are widely thought to be highly vulnerable to climate change, in particular to sea level rise and to extreme climate events, such as tropical and non-tropical cyclones, while further noting that sea level rise is often perceived as casting doubt on reef islands future habitability. And it was against this backdrop of pessimism that the seven European scientists went on to assess the likelihood -- or not -- of these several negative contentions actually occurring in the real world of nature. 
More specifically, Testut et al. acquired baseline data on both absolute and relative sea level variations and shoreline changes in the Scattered Islands region of the Indian Ocean, based on aerial image analysis, satellite altimetry, field observations and in situ measurements derived from the 2009 and 2011 Terres Australes et Antarctiques Francaises (or TAAF) scientific expeditions.

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