Saturday, 1 August 2015

Global Warming to Global Cooling - A Paradigm Change

Fred Singer, writing for American Thinker has a piece under the banner:

A Paradigm Change: Re-directing public concern from Global Warming to Global Cooling

He begins:
I want to change public concern from Global (GW) to Global Cooling (GC).  Presented here are three arguments in favor of such a drastic shift -- which involves also a drastic shift in current policies, such as mitigation of the greenhouse (GH) gas carbon dioxide.
Now, as there is NO empirical evidence that (man's emissions of) carbon dioxide are causing GW, the first leg is already established.

My main argument relies on the fact, backed by historical evidence, that cooling, even on a regional or local scale, is much more damaging than warming. 
Again, Fred is just pointing out an obvious reality. In May this year, The esteemed medical Journal - The Lancet -published:

Cold weather kills far more people than hot weather

Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries. The findings also reveal that deaths due to moderately hot or cold weather substantially exceed those resulting from extreme heat waves or cold spells. (bold added)
Fred Singer continues:

The key threat is to agriculture, leading to failure of harvests, followed by famine, starvation, disease, and mass deaths.
Yes, cold is bad for agriculture. However, although global temperatures have plateaued, ever increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide is greening the planet - see  peer-reviewed papers - here, here and here

Fred then addresses the history of our planet's warming and cooling (glaciation and interglacial) cycles:
Our planet has experienced some 17 (Milankovitch-style) glaciations in the past 2 million years, each typically lasting 100,000 years, interrupted by warm inter-glacials, typically of around 10,000-yr duration. The most recent glaciation ended rather suddenly about 12,000 years ago.  We are now in the warm Holocene, which is expected to end soon. 
Yes, the shrill are telling you that we are all going to fry (by a warming of around 2ºC) but history tells you that we are all going to chill.  See above - Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather.

So, who is Fred Singer? 
S. Fred Singer is professor emeritus at the University of Virginia and a founding director of the Science & Environmental Policy Project; in 2014, after 25 years, he stepped down as president of SEPP.  His specialty is atmospheric and space physics.  An expert in remote sensing and satellites, he served as the founding director of the US Weather Satellite Service and, more recently, as vice chair of the US National Advisory Committee on Oceans & Atmosphere.  He is an elected Fellow of several scientific societies and a Senior Fellow of the Heartland Institute and the Independent Institute.  He co-authored the NY Times best-seller Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 years.  In 2007, he founded and has chaired the NIPCC (Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change), which has released several scientific reports [See].
Mr Singer said that the current warm period is expected to end soon.

A new paper by solar physicist by Habibullo Abdussamatov predicts the current lull in solar activity will continue and lead to a new Little Ice Age within the next 30 years.

For the Full Report in PDF Form, please click here.

Figure 1. Variations of both the TSI and solar activity in 1978-2013 and prognoses of thesevariations to cycles 24-27 until 2045. The arrow indicates the beginning of the new Little IceAge epoch after the maximum of cycle 24.

Dr Singer continues:
In fact, we may have already entered into the next glaciation -- as we can discover only in retrospect.  (Past cycles suggest a very gradual cooling initially -- with ice accumulation and a drop in global sea levels, a decrease in atmospheric CO2 into the cooling oceans and lowest temperatures occurring only much later in the cycle.)Archeological data show that the recent glaciation wiped out the Neanderthalers and much of the fauna that constituted their source of food.  Most of humanity may not survive the next, inevitable glaciation.
Remember, the shrill are telling you that we are all going to fry. And the shrill are dedicated to scaring you.

Quotes by H.L. Mencken, famous columnist: "The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed — and hence clamorous to be led to safety — by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."  
Quote by emeritus professor Daniel Botkin: "The only way to get our society to truly change is to frighten people with the possibility of a catastrophe. 
Quote by Al Gore, large CO2 producer: "I believe it is appropriate to have an over-representation of factual presentations on how dangerous it is, as a predicate for opening up the audience to listen to what the solutions are, and how hopeful it is that we are going to solve this crisis."
Dr Singer's conclusion:

In my opinion, there is little doubt that a near-term cooling is among the major calamities facing the population on our planet; concern about global warming is entirely misplaced.  A Little Ice Age (DOB cooling) may arrive within decades -- perhaps much sooner.  The end of our warm Holocene inter-glacial is rapidly approaching.  There is no time to lose in preparing for survival.  A paradigm change is essential.

Instead of fiddling with apportionment of CO2 quotas among different nations, we should face realities: CO2 forcing of climate seems largely offset by internal atmospheric negative feedback. In any case, CO2 forcing is largely saturated spectroscopically; there is little chance of exceeding or even reaching the artificial temperature goal of 2 degrees that politicians have adopted.

No effective quota system will emerge at the forthcoming climate conference in Paris in December 2015, as long as developing nations, like India, aim to overcome poverty by assuring their citizens of reliable, secure, and cheap energy from fossil fuels. 

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