Thursday, 22 August 2013

Lack of Warming Doesn't Matter - Trenberth's new view.

"The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't." 

This is an oft-quoted line by Kevin Trenberth as revealed in the ClimateGate emails.

It seems now, at least to Mr Trenberth a senior scientist in the climate analysis section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, temperature is not important to Global Warming.

From Bloomberg (discussing the forthcoming IPCC 5AR)
“There are other signs of warming that are abundantly clear,” Trenberth said in an interview. “Those are some of the messages that I think might end up coming out of this report. It’s really strong in areas other than just the global mean temperature or even regional temperatures around the world.” 
So, don't worry about the lack of warming, there are factors other than temperature that show the world is warming.....


  1. Average global temperature history since 1975 is like a hill. We went up the hill from 1975 to 2001 where the average global temperature trend reached a plateau (per the average of the five government agencies that publicly report average global temperature anomalies). The average global temperature trend since 2001 has been flat to slightly declining but is on the plateau at the top of the hill. Claiming that the hill is highest at its top is not very profound. The temperature trend has started to decline but the decline will be slow; about 0.1 K per decade for the planet, approximately twice that fast for land areas.

    A licensed mechanical engineer (retired) who has been researching this issue (unfunded) for 6 years, and in the process discovered what actually caused global warming and why it ended, has four papers on the web that you may find of interest. They provide some eye-opening insight on the cause of change to average global temperature and why it has stopped warming. The papers are straight-forward calculations (not just theory) using readily available data up to May, 2013.

    The first one is 'Global warming made simple' at It shows, with simple thermal radiation calculations, how a tiny change in the amount of low-altitude clouds could account for half of the average global temperature change in the 20th century, and what could have caused that tiny cloud change. (The other half of the temperature change is from net average natural ocean oscillation which is dominated by the PDO)

    The second paper is 'Natural Climate change has been hiding in plain sight' at . This paper presents a simple equation that, using a single external forcing, calculates average global temperatures since they have been accurately measured world wide (about 1895) with an accuracy of 90%, irrespective of whether the influence of CO2 is included or not. The equation uses a proxy which is the time-integral of sunspot numbers (the external forcing). A graph is included which shows the calculated trajectory overlaid on measurements.

    Change to the level of atmospheric CO2 has had no significant effect on average global temperature.

    The time-integral of sunspot numbers since 1610 which is shown at corroborates the significance of this factor.

    A third paper, ‘The End of Global Warming’ at expands recent (since 1996) measurements and includes a graph showing the growing separation between the rising CO2 and not-rising average global temperature.

    The fourth paper exposes some of the mistakes that have been made by the ‘Consensus’ and the IPCC

  2. So what do you have to say about this

    1. As the youtube says....CROCK!

      It,s not sixteen years, it's at least 17 years as agreed by IPCC chief Rajendra Pachauri.

      Have you noticed how close the words "crock" and (John) Cook are.....hmmmm

    2. What dont you understand about the video?

    3. And...although the stupid vid tries to claim that it is still warming, have you ACTUALLY read the post?

      It is Kevin one of the alarmists who admits there is no warming.


  3. I don't understand how anyone can be taken in by a paid misinformation site like UNSkeptical Science, I don't understand how some-one from an Australian University can mis-spell sceptic, I don't understand how, even some-one from a paid misinformation site can argue that although the real world data show no warming for 17-23 years, they still rely on flawed models, I don't understand how, even though the IPCC, was set up to find CO2 guilty, during their existance they have still found no evidence, I don't understand why, although all scientists agree that the rise in atmospheric CO2 FOLLOWS the rise in temperature, the alarmist scientist still, for political - not scientific - reasons, purport to support the exact opposite.... Gee, I could go on for hours.....

    1. The video is based on this peer reviewed paper

    2. Peer-reviewed er....make that Pal-reviewed.

      That paper is lisred in the 10 worst AGW papers at No 4.

      4. Global Temperature Evolution 1979-2010. By Grant Foster and Stefan Sahmstorf. Published in Environmental Research Letters, 2011.

      Continuing the theme of meaninglessness Foster and Ramstorf’s 2011 paper was meant to be the last word on climate sensitivity to CO2 increase. They removed all the natural factors which may have contributed to temperature increase and were left with a range of 0.014 to 0.018 K yr−1 as the ‘pure’ AGW forcing. This rate was constant from 1979. This should have set the alarm bells ringing for a start since CO2 was increasing exponentially during this period; if the dominant forcing factor was increasing the AGW temperature effect should also have been increasing. But it seems that their methodology was flawed as well as Bob Tisdale notes. Bob was mainly concerned with showing ENSO was not exogenous and could not be excluded as Foster and Rahmstorf [F&R] did but his 2 regression equations derived from F&R’s paper produced some astounding comments, particularly from ferd berple. Ferd uses some algebra and substitution and shows in his own words:

      “F&R have proven that Climate Change is fully explained by the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), the Total Solar Irradiance (PMOD), and the Volcanic Aerosol Optical Depth data (AOD).In other words, F&R have proven that CO2 has no role in climate change.”

    3. You reference an opinion piece from a blog as your rebuttal?

    4. DId you read the rebuttal?

    5. If the paragraph long opinion piece from a blog is not published as a comment to the Journal it cant even be referenced in a high school paper.

  4. The Arctic death spiral is taking a break this month. With 2 days left in the month, Eureka, deep in the Arctic on Ellesmere Island is well on its way to reporting the coldest August in their 67 year historical record (1947-2013). The temperature dropped below freezing on 13 August where it has remained throughout the remainder of the month. Since the 13th nearly every daily maximum temperature has been below the normal daily minimum temperature:
    Nine daily minimum temperature records have been set this month in addition to establishing a new monthly low temperature record of -12.9 C (9 F).


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