The Cat's out of the bag! The science does not exist to make detailed forecasts for temperature.

The UK Met Office, as a partner in the Strategic Science Group (SSG) of the JWCRP: Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme wrote in a preparation (link)
Science strategies are being developed by the SSG;
  • Weather: To reduce the consequences of high impact weather in the UK and globally through provision of more accurate, more detailed, and longer lead time forecasts to the public and government agencies.
  • Monthly to Decadal: To enhance the skill and reliability of near term climate predictions through research into drivers on timescales out to a decade.

And also

Science plans developed over the year :

Mathematical formulation of weather and climate prediction models
This all sounds good, because the UK Met Office is a contributor to the forthcoming IPCC Assesment Report 6.
BUT! The UK Met Office has let the cat out of the bag. On the Met Office’s own news blog (link)
The science does not exist to make detailed forecasts for temperature and snowfall for the end of this month, let alone for December or even the winter as a whole with these types of forecasts only able to provide an indication of how our weather might change

H/t Tom Nelson


  1. This does not mean science cannot predict climate change. The above comment speaks about forecasting weather, which is an entirely different thing from climate modelling. It is indeed not possible to predict the exact temperature of, say London, this or next January. What is possible is measuring and modelling patterns in overall climate i.e. changes in mean winter temperatures.


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