|CO2 lags temperature|
When challenged, the government bases its claim that the benefits to the world exceed the costs to British taxpayers on the Stern review on The Economics of Climate Change -- on which Australia's Garnaut review was modelled.Mr Lilley says that he accepts the"science," but he concentrates on the economic questions.
Yet the Stern review has now been shown to be fundamentally flawed -- leaving all three parties that have defended this policy with a huge dilemma.
Their defence of climate change policy rests on two pillars -- scientific and economic.
NCTCS does not accept the science of the IPCC. CO2 LAGS Temperature, therefore CO2 cannot the cause. (See eg graph above and post Carbon is innocent.)
The economic pillar was always far flimsier since it relied on Stern -- a government economist, commissioned by the government, who produced the answer the government needed. Moreover, Stern's key conclusion -- that the benefits of reducing emissions would be five to 20 times the cost -- flatly contradicts the IPCC, which concluded: "costs and benefits are broadly comparable in magnitude" so it could not establish "an emissions pathway or stabilisation level where benefits exceed costs". Most environmental economists whose work Stern supposedly reviewed reached conclusions closer to the IPCC.GWPF: New Report: Government Cannot Rely On Stern Review To Justify Costly Climate Policies (Link)
Nonetheless, Labour ministers and their Conservative/Lib Dem successors cling with increasing desperation to Stern: albeit like the proverbial drunk -- more for support than illumination.
To provide that illumination I have undertaken a detailed study -- What is Wrong with Stern? The Failings of the Stern Review -- published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation. (GWPF)
The new study shows the Stern Review to depend critically on “selective choice of facts, unusual economic assumptions and a propagandist narrative – which would never have passed peer review”.
Describing it as “policy based evidence”, Peter Lilley argues the government can no longer rely on it to justify expenditure of many billions of pounds and calls for a return return instead to “evidence based policies”.Bishop Hill writes: (link)
Stern’s central conclusion that “If we don’t act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year now and forever” whereas “the costs of action – reducing greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst impacts of climate change – can be limited to around 1% of GDP each year” is found to be entirely fallacious.
Lilley’s study demonstrates that the benefits of curbing emissions now and henceforth will not be five times the cost of action, as Stern claims. “It is achieved by verbal virtuosity combined with statistical sophistry. In fact, even on Stern’s figures, the cumulative costs of reducing greenhouse gases will exceed the benefits until beyond 2100″, Lilley points out.
“If we continue to follow Stern’s advice, the principal losers, apart from British taxpayers and businesses, would be developing countries who cannot raise living standards without massively increasing their use of fossil fuels and will therefore be responsible for most of the growth of carbon emissions,” Lilley argues.
When you see wind farms covering every hill and mountain and most of the valleys too, you can blame Stern. If you can't pay your heating bills, ask Stern why this has happened. When children are indoctrinated and dissenting voices crushed, it is at Nicholas Stern that you should point an accusing finger. When the lights start to go out in a few years time, it's Stern who will have to explain why.When Australia's electricity fails due to the closing of cheap coal fired power stations closing down, point the finger at the Green Gillard Government.
Despite years of having mainstream economists pointing to the flaws in the Stern Review there has been an almost unanimous collective shrug from the media, more interested in climate porn than the wellbeing of their neighbours.
h/t Benny Peiser