NASA:GISS: Recent Warming driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases.

Anthony Watts at WUWT  and his correspondent Nick have uncovered a paper published by Dr. James Hansen (and the GISS team) in PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences).

Hansen with egg on face: C3 Headlines

Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario

  1. Valdar Oinas*§
Anthony writes:
No, this isn’t a joke, it isn’t a fake document, and it isn’t a misinterpretation. In the paper (published in 2000, but long since buried) they make these two bold statements (emphasis mine):
..we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols..
If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change.
Read more at WUWT and also at C3 Headlines


  1. It isn't a fake and but it is a misinterpretation and it is a cherrypick.
    This paragraph is from the same paper.
    "Climate forcing by CO2 is the largest forcing, but it does not dwarf the others (Fig. 1). Forcing by CH4 (0.7 W/m2) is half as large as that of CO2, and the total forcing by non-CO2 GHGs (1.4 W/m2) equals that of CO2. Moreover, in comparing forcings due to different activities, we must note that the fossil fuels producing most of the CO2 are also the main source of aerosols, especially sulfates, black carbon, and organic aerosols (4, 23). Fossil fuels contribute only a minor part of the non-CO2 GHG growth via emissions that are not essential to energy production."

    When one reads the entire paper, one understands it and is less likely to draw the wrong conclusions from just reading the abstract.

  2. moresensethanu5 June 2012 at 13:41

    Perhaps u should read the summary -


    Business-as-usual scenarios provide a useful warning about the potential for human-made climate change. Our analysis of climate forcings suggests, as a strategy to slow global warming, an alternative scenario focused on reducing non-CO2 GHGs and black carbon (soot) aerosols.

    1. Nice wordplay on the monika. A little juvenile but still clever. As for the rest, I prefer to read the entire paper. You should try it sometime. Helps you get the whole picture.

    2. moresensethanu6 June 2012 at 02:03

      mon·i·ker or mon·ick·er. n. Slang. A personal name or nickname.

      monika. n. a presidential desk accessory.

    3. moresensethanu7 June 2012 at 17:47

      Obviously my moniker (not MONIKA) has moresensethan your moniker. You had no come-back.

      It is a pity that you have no come-back on the science data.

      There has not been EVEN ONE paper to show that increased (MAN-MADE) CO2 emissions are causing runaway global warming.

      We can show that the hypothesis has been falsified.

      Can you produce ANY data that shows CO2 emissions are causing runaway global warming?

      I will pre-empt your answer....


  3. Geoffrey doesn't have email notification of follow up comments and as a working scientist I actually have to go out in the field and collect data so can't dedicate my time to responding to a comment that was essentially a spellchecker. I am more than happy to answer your questions and carry on the discussion at my blog. In fact I might make a special little blog all about you. How about that?

  4. Well done, moresensethanu.

    Looks like you asked too hard a question and got the troll uknowispeaknonsense to go back to his burrow.

    If he ever can find the causative link between carbon dioxide and runaway warming, perhaps he will come back.


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