Monday, 1 June 2020

Climate News - June 2020

Alan Moran

A review and commentary on topical matters concerning the science, economics, and governance associated with climate change developments.
Alan Moran
1 June 2020
Developments in science and scientific observation
Armageddon postponed: The November 2020 Glasgow climate change conference now set for 2021.

Oxford University’s Roger Higgs finds the 3 pillars on which the IPCC base their human-induced warming claim are unscientific. The pillars are:
  • CO2 must have caused the post 1850 global warming (but there is no previous correlation or consistent trend);
  • Sun's weakening post-1991 has seen no temperature decline (this neglects 60 year lags for ocean temperature change);
  • 30 cm sea level rise since 1850 (but oscillations of 2 to 5 metres evident in the last 6,000 years).
Indeed, Patrick Moore and Caleb Stewart Rossiter demonstrate that there is no change in sea level rise.  According to the UN's most recent report, the current global rate of sea-level rise - about an inch a decade, or 3.2 millimetres per year - is the same as it was 100 years ago.

“This year, Norway has had the most amount of snow in 60 years. I can confirm.
I'm in the mountains and it's crazy amounts of snow. Is this what global warming looks like?”

Just to be sure, the Norwegian government has funded a new project to counter a projected global warming-induced shortage of snow.

The sun seems to have entered a low sunspot activity phase with no sunspots observed in 100 days of 2019.
Many scientists regard low sunspot activity as bringing a cooler climate – the medieval “little ice age” was characterised by low sunspot activity.

Patrick Michaels notes that a report by CSIRO's Vanessa Haverd and others corroborates evidence which shows the beneficial role caused by the fertilisation effect of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions being absorbed in land bringing about a greening of the planet.  Michaels also shows that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have been consistently less than models have predicted. Carbon dioxide emissions fell by 17 per cent in April, as illustrated in this Washington Postchart.  
Ole Humulm assembles statistics for this chart, based on Nature data, which shows an actual increase in measured CO2 in spite of 17 per cent decrease in human emissions in April 2020.   
Roy Spencer argues that annual variations have a negligible effect on measured atmospheric levels of CO2 because they are dwarfed by natural variability.
Politics and economics
Rupert Darwall rejects the calls of UK Deputy PM Dominic Raab for a renewable energy led recovery noting that because of renewable raising electricity costs “the last decade saw Britain rack up its worst productivity performance since the Industrial Revolution.  We cut (emissions) by exporting our industrial base”. This is a view shared by Australia's Senator Canavan, who maintains that Australia cannot have renewables and a vibrant manufacturing sector and advocates leaving the Paris Accord.

A contrary view is offered by a IEA sponsored report, which claims that renewable investments are highly profitable, but then adds that new funding is lagging due to uncertainties about the continuation of the subsidies they need.  In a similar vein, the “Energy Transitions Commission" business group calls for government “to build a healthier, more resilient, net-zero-emissions economy, that drives sustainable economic prosperity”. Signatories include Shell, BP, Rio, Alliance and HSBC. 

Euro NGOs are also calling for more green measures and new tariffs to prevent imports of carbon rich products. This would be welcomed by the EU Commission, which proposes €44 billion in spending to wean member states off fossil fuels - more than five times bigger than the €7.5 billion ‘just transition fund’ proposed in January. Its proposal needs approval from member states and EU lawmakers. One Government likely to support is Spain’s: its proposed climate legislation would ban all new coal, oil and gas extraction projects, seek a 35 per cent reduction in energy consumption through building renovation and “introduce climate change to the school curriculum”.

Bucking the “consensus” is Mexico. The president called wind turbines "fans", saying they didn't produce much energy and is ceasing support for them including grid connections where their intermittency brings risks.   

Every cloud …..  California is being forced to abandon its $12 billion green climate budget as a result of coronavirus revenue losses.  The State has seen its regulatory induced market for greenhouse gas permits collapsing with a 96 per cent fall in permit sales in the latest month. But twenty-three states and Washington, D.C. have sued the Trump administration over rules that weaken Obama-era fuel efficiency standards, which now require 1.5 percent annual efficiency increases through 2026 rather than the 5 percent previously mandated.

Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s biggest, has sold its 0.5 per cent stake in Australian gas and electricity supplier, AGL, and put BHP "on watch" over its exposure to thermal coal.  The fund owes its entire existence to oil production and continues to benefit from this.

Chris Kenny addresses ABC alarmism blaming climate change for bushfires and interviewed biased former bureaucrats without scrutinising the science. Noting the claim that this year will be a climate “tipping point”, he sardonically asks, “How many of them have we had now?”

In Planet of the Humans Michael Moore’s apostasy to the green left movement in demonstrating the high cost and unworkability of renewables has, predictably, led the green left to having the documentary removed from Youtube.
Joe Biden outsources climate change policy to John Kerry, Ocasio-Cortez and a group that also includes the youth-led champions of the Green New Deal.

But they have not, unlike CNN, said if Greta is an expert advisor on this or coronavirus.
With or without Greta’s assistance, the crusade by apparent child prodigies against climate changing “pollution” continues in the Florida courts.

And just to demonstrate any mention of climate change is a sure-fire way of getting a research grant, this study allegedly proves that it causes cancer.