Tuesday, 3 March 2020

Summers are getting Longer says the Australia Institute

by Anthony Cox

It’s official, using BoM data the  Australia Institute (AI), a left-leaning think tank which is just another alarmist ginger group, has declared that compared to 1950-1969, Summers are getting longer. In its press release is this dire graph:


Looks bad, doesn’t it? Fortunately, it’s just the usual cherry-picking of already adjusted BoM data.

What the AI has done is compared an El Niño dominated period, a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with a negative PDO, dominated by La Niña. El Niño, which gives the world warmer and drier conditions, and La Niña, which gives cooler and wetter conditions, clump together into 30+ year periods. There was a positive PDO at the beginning and end of the 20thC continuing into the 21stC, with a negative PDO in the middle. So, the last 120 years or so have been dominated by El Niño conditions which in itself is sufficient to explain the temperature increase:

As shown the PDO phase changes from El Niño to La Niña along with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation explains the 20thC temperatures.

In addition, the temperature increase during the first El Niño period at the beginning of the 20thC is almost identical to the temperature increase during the second El Niño  period at the end of the 20thC as Judith Curry explains:

But the La Niña period from 1940-1976 featured cooler and wetter conditions. During this wet and cooler period, seasons were much more demarcated. During the El Niño periods, spillage of warmer temperatures into Spring and Autumn occurs. The AI’s comparison is simply based on a false premise between 2 different, naturally occurring climate patterns.

But despite this cherry-picking by the AI, their own figures are incorrect. The AI report says this:
The beginning of each season is defined by reference to the historical daily average temperature on the first day of the season. Seasons are defined as per the traditional seasonal calendar:

• summer starts 1 December,
• autumn starts 1 March,
• winter starts 1 June, and
• spring starts 1 September.

For each weather station, the average temperature on each of these dates in 1950-1969 is the temperature that marks the beginning of the season. The dates on which these benchmark temperatures were reached over the last twenty years are the dates on which the seasons are said to now begin.

The report then gives examples. Page 35 of the study states that the starting temperature for Autumn in Hobart is 16.5C and Autumn in 1999-2018 starts on 18 March whereas it used to start on 1 March in 1950-1969. Chris Gillham has done a quick analysis of the IA’s conclusions which are based on the already adjusted BoM temperatures:

I know this isn’t their technique but I thought I’d average all the 18 March in 1950-1969 and 1999-2018, and compare their mean temperatures ...

RAW 1950-1969 : 16.85C
RAW 1999-2018 : 16.70C

ACORN 2 1950-1969 : 17.10C
ACORN 2 1999-2018 : 16.80C

Okay, so 18 March is now their official start to autumn despite the fact that on that particular date - since they want to be fussy - the day is cooler over 1999-2018 than 1950-1969 in both adjusted and unadjusted. The mean temp of March 18 is pretty close to their starting temperature, but not quite.

In both the raw and heavily adjusted ACORN 2 figures the base period of 1950-1969 is warmer than the modern period! Chris admits he didn’t use the AI’s methodology, instead using a much more reasonable and accessible averaging technique.

Like their adjusted data the alarmists’ technique is suspect and designed for one thing: to support the narrative that it’s getting hotter.



Energy & Environmental Newsletter: March 2, 202

By  

 March 2, 2020

The Alliance for Wise Energy Decisions (AWED) is an informal coalition of individuals and organizations interested in improving national, state, and local energy, environmental, and education policies. Our premise is that technical matters like these should be addressed by using Real Science (please consult WiseEnergy.org for more information).
A key element of AWED’s efforts is public education. Towards that end, every two± weeks we put together a newsletter to balance what is found in the mainstream media about energy and the environment. We appreciate MasterResource for their assistance in publishing this information.
Some of the more important articles in this issue are:Study: Green New Deal would cost $75K per household in first year
Sorry Virtue Signalers, a Carbon Tax Would Have No Impact on Climate
14± million trees felled in Scotland for wind development, 2000–2019
Why Some Families Living Near Wind Facilities Contemplate Vacating Their Homes
The Misguided Green Virtue-Signaling of Solar Panel Mandates
Surprising Disadvantages of Using Solar Energy
Don’t like CO2? Advanced nuclear power is the answer
Recycled Nuclear Waste Will Power a New Reactor
Radical hydrogen-boron reactor leapfrogs current nuclear fusion tech
Natural Gas Is Crushing Wind and Solar Power
The Obvious Reality Of More U.S. Oil And Natural Gas
Fracking has reduced carbon emissions
Good News: FERC critics cry bailout by another name
Cuomo wants more state control of solar, wind energy permits
N.Y.’s plan to fast-track renewables could get ‘ugly’
NYS Towns’ opposition to new renewable energy project rules
Report: Onshore wind faces slowdown without a ‘game changer’
Why the U.S. faces a steep path to a CO2-free grid
Fossil Fuels Advocacy Alarms Environmental Alarmists
The looming German capacity crunch
Report: The Greatly Exaggerated Threat of Man-made Warming
More Deadly Than Coronavirus: Green Ideology
Excellent video: Greta Thunberg Incorporated: The Exposé
The Real Western Civilization Emergency
House Republicans Roll Out their Climate Change Bills
Video: Climate Change Mass Indoctrination, Corruption of Science 2020
Dr. Curry: Plausible scenarios for climate change: 2020-2050
Study: Empirical evidence of declining global vulnerability to climate hazards
Trump vs. Democrats on Higher Education
The Philosophical Force Driving the Fight to Rewrite History
To prepare climate strikers for the future, we need to rewrite the history books
What Is Socialism?
Socialism Always Fails
Video: The History of Socialism in the US
If Bernie Sanders Is So Progressive, Why Is The Green New Deal So Regressive?
Bernie Sanders’s Rise is Like Death Knocking on America’s Door
Communist Citizen Body County To Date = $150+ Million
Live graphic showing all Coronavirus cases, worldwide
China Coronavirus: Confucianism vs Communism
Coronavirus Appears Far Less Deadly Than Flu, But Some Keep Promoting Panic
Short powerful video: Paul Harvey’s Warning to America
It’s Time the Right Got Its Act Together
How Democrats are using multiculturalism and immigration to destroy America
Environmentalism Today Is Infected with Urban Smugness
Causes and consequences of the climate science boom
Europe’s Anti-Science Plague Descends On Africa
Miscellaneous Energy News:Report: Onshore wind faces slowdown without a ‘game changer’
Why the U.S. faces a steep path to a CO2-free grid
Fossil Fuels Advocacy Alarms Environmental Alarmists
The looming German capacity crunch
Conflict between FAA and State Law regarding Siting Turbines
The looming collision between electric vehicles and green energy
Racial preferences in Virginia energy law are unconstitutional
New Book:  A Question of Power: Electricity and the Wealth of Nations
Re Energy Matters: Vermont is Going to Hell in a Hand Basket
EPA Proposes Additional Amendments to the Regulations for Coal Residuals
China and India rejecting renewables for coal-fired futures
Biomass, Like So Many Other Renewable Scams, Can’t Make It on Its Own
Video: Virtue Signaling To Destroy The Environment
Africa Energy Situation and Future Suffers from NGO Condescension
Manmade Global Warming — Miscellaneous:The Real Western Civilization Emergency
House Republicans Roll Out their Climate Change Bills
Video: Climate Change Mass Indoctrination, Corruption of Science 2020
Dr. Curry: Plausible scenarios for climate change: 2020-2050
Study: Empirical evidence of declining global vulnerability to climate hazards
“RepublicEN” astroturf group launches character attack on Princeton physicist
Prominent physicist and climate change skeptic Freeman Dyson dies at 96
Why and how China secretly supports climate hysteria
Trump Administration Begins Work on Next National Climate Report
Oregon House Republicans join Senate Republicans in walkout over climate bill
Video: Dr Ball provides a comprehensive overview of the origins of CO2 alarmism
Short video: Norwegians say No to Climate Hysteria
Merkel: Germany must put Carbon Capture back on the table
Could global cooling silently become a reality?
Jeff Bezo$ goes really big on climate
German teenage ‘anti-Greta’ speaks at Republican CPAC convention
For Newsletter Archives, go here.