Thursday, 13 February 2020

The True Facts of Climate Change: Part 1

By M. Ray Thomasson and Lee C. Gerhard
Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences
First let us state that the authors are avid environmentalists. Every geologist we know loves nature and “The out-of-doors” and wants to protect and preserve our planet. Concern for the environment should not be confused with climate change. The popular media have been expounding on climate change for many years without considering the underlying data that could substantiate their presentation of the issue. 
The authors present a “CO2 is not the problem” approach to challenging the media about climate change, and look forward to a “CO2  is the problem” response. 
The Scientific Method is used in all scientific endeavors. It takes many shapes and forms, and involves three principal steps: After finding scientific data that suggest a particular outcome, the scientists:
1. Construct a Hypothesis. The scientists state both the hypothesis and the resulting prediction they will be testing.
2. Test the Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment. The experiment tests whether the prediction is accurate and thus the hypothesis is supported or not. In the absence of a laboratory experiment, historical observations must be used.
3. Analyze the Data and Draw a Conclusion. Once the experiment (observed data) is complete, collect measurements and analyze them to see if they support the hypothesis or not. If not, go back and create another hypothesis; if it does, you publish the findings so that others may test the hypothesis (replicate the experiment).
Point (1) above has been accomplished for climate change. What has been lacking in most of the Global Warming/Climate Change studies are (2) and (3). There is no substitute for objective, historical data. What follows is an attempt to refute newspaper, TV and radio opinions based on models that are badly flawed. We present a point by point discussion of what the DATA can tell us. Any statement not backed up by DATA is an opinion and may be true, false or misleading. Computer models are opinions. 
What the Media Commonly Says 
  • That temperatures are higher than they have been in the last 200 years: TRUE (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Temperatures have been rising from the last Little Ice Age for about the last 300 years. However, if history is to repeat itself, the temperature may well start falling as it did after both the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period. Modified from [1]. 
  • That temperatures are higher than they have ever been. FALSE (Figure 2).

Figure 2: We are in a glacial era and happen to be in a warmer interglacial time period. It has been much hotter most of the last 10 thousands years. We are in a general cold period. Modified and redrafted from [2,3].

That Global Warming has Caused:
  • Number of hurricanes to increase - FALSE (Figure 3).  
Figure 3: There has been no increase in hurricane frequency. Redrafted from National Hurricane Center 2015. 
  • There have been more droughts - FALSE (Figure 4).
  • There have been more wet seasons - FALSE (Figure 4).

Figure 4: There has been no change in the frequency of extreme and moderate drought. There has been no increase of moderate to extreme wet
areas. From National Climate Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA [4]. 
  • The number of violent hurricanes has increased – FALSE (Figure 5).

Figure 5: There has been no change in hurricane strength and frequency. Redrafted from [5].

  • That CO2 is the major greenhouse gas - FALSE (Figure 6).

Figure 6: This graph shows greenhouse gases’ contribution to greenhouse effect. Water vapor makes up 95% which swamps CO2 as a greenhouse
gas and dominates the greenhouse effect. CO2 makes up approximately 5% and human’s activity makes up only 0.4% of the total. Modified from [6].

  • That CO2  increases will drive temperatures to catastrophic temperature levels. FALSE (Figure 7).

Figure 7: Because of the inverse logarithmic relationship between CO2 and temperature (Arrhenius 1896), as more CO2 enters the atmosphere, each Part Per Million (ppm) has less of an effect on temperature. [7] suggest that doubling the current concentration of CO2 (now approximately 400 ppm) would raise temperature 1°C. We estimate that would take 190+ years. In that amount of time many of the other factors affecting temperature will have changed the global temperature pattern. Modified from [8].

  • That CO2 is the main driver of temperature increase - FALSE (Figures 8,9).

Figure 8: The apparent coincidence of the correlation of CO2 and temperature is shown. When Gore used this correlation to “Prove” CO2 drove
temperature the ice core research discussed below had already been done. Modified from [9].

Figure 9 a,b,c: These 3 figures depict termination of the three last glacial terminations. Dating younger to older warming periods Termination I begins at approximately 12,000 years Before Present (BP). Termination II began at about 126.000 years BP. Termination III started at about 238,000 years BP. Quoting from Fischer, “Atmospheric CO2  concentrations show a similar increase for all three terminations, connected to a climate-driven net transfer of carbon from the ocean to the atmosphere. The time lag of the rise in CO2 concentrations with respect to [previous] temperature change is on the order of 400 to 1000 years during all three glacial-interglacial transitions.”

Continued in Part 2 - HERE 

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