Tuesday, 29 May 2018

Significant work that contradicts the claims of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Hollow Models? 
The long writing career of British logician and philosopher Bertrand Russell covered a period of marked change in science. The term natural philosophy was giving way to the term physical science and extensive divisions were occurring into branches such as physics, chemistry, etc. Already, it had been shown that long-held beliefs needed continuing empirical verification. For example, European philosophers long held the view that knowledge can be logically deduced from generally held beliefs, or propositions, such as: all swans are white; if it is a swan, it is white. This logical view was broken when the premise was falsified with the discovery of black swans in Australia in 1697. The occurrence has been used to demonstrate that logic alone is not sufficient to demonstrate a proposition has meaning in the physical world (truth). [Stock market investor Nassim Nicholas Taleb developed an investment (speculation) strategy based on unlikely events, which has different meaning.]

Previously, it was held that mathematics, the language of science, conveys empirical meaning. Euclidian geometry fit well with Newtonian Mechanics. However, Brownian Motion, discovered in 1827, did not. Further, Quantum Mechanics, advanced at the beginning of the 20th century by Max Planck, Einstein, and others, does not fit into a Euclidian scheme. Mathematics alone is not sufficient to advance knowledge, meaning, of the physical world. Empirical verification is necessary.

Recently, we have seen significant work that contradicts the claims of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and others, that carbon dioxide is causing dangerous global warming. As John Christy, Roy Spencer, and others with the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville have published, the bulk atmosphere is not warming as projected by a multitude of models used by the IPCC. Using the Canadian Climate Model Run 3, as an example, they show that the incorrectly termed “distinct human fingerprint”, the tropical “hot spot” between about 20ºN and 20ºS, does not exist in 38 years of atmospheric temperature data.

In its latest Assessment Report (AR5, 2013 & 2014), the IPCC no longer claims a tropical hot spot, but such a condition is necessary if water vapor is to amplify the slight warming produced by an increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) shown in laboratory experiments, as speculated in the 1979 Charney Report, published by the National Academy of Sciences. Thus, the IPCC and its followers such as the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), with 13 US government participating agencies, are in a difficult situation. They have no empirical basis for declaring that greenhouse gases, particularly CO2, are causing dangerous global warming.

Over one hundred years ago, it was shown that mathematics and logic, alone, are not sufficient for establishing meaningful knowledge about the physical world. Reliance on mathematical models, without empirical verification, is an empty science. The global climate models being used are hollow. 

From: SEPP - The Week That Was: 2018-05-26

Tony Abbott to Give AEF Lecture

Tony Abbott to Give AEF Lecture: Melbourne CBD, 3 July 2018 

28 May 2018

Bob Carter Commemorative Lecture at CQ Functions from 5:30pm
On Tuesday evening, 3 July 2018, the Hon. Tony Abbott—the former PM and current MHR for Warringah in NSW—will speak on "Climate Change and Restraining Greenhouse Gas Emissions".

This event will be the second in a series of lectures that AEF has  established to commemorate the life and work of Professor Robert (Bob) Carter, a former Director and Scientific Adviser. The AEF Bob Carter Memorial Fund is financing the lectures.

Mr Abbott's address will conclude with a question and answer session.

Dr Peter Ridd will move the vote of thanks. Peter was a former colleague of Bob Carter at James Cook University and was recently sacked for criticising colleagues' research on climate change—something for which Bob Carter had previously been sanctioned.

Light refreshments will be served before and after the formalities. During this time, attendees may purchase drinks from the bar..

We hope to see you there!  Please invite your friends and colleagues to join us.  

CQ Functions
113 Queen Street
Melbourne VIC 3000

Date & Times:
Doors open at 5:30pm, Tuesday, 3 July 2018.
Refreshments served from 5:30pm.
Lecture commences at 6:00pm.
Event concludes at 7:30pm sharp.

Tickets must be booked online through the Eventbrite platform.

Early bird tickets are available at $35 per person until 4 June 2018. From 4 June 2018, the ticket price will be $35 for AEF members and $42 for others. All prices include GST but exclude the Eventbrite booking fee.

Hon. Tony Abbott MP, Member for Warringah, NSW
Tony Abbott has been the Member for Warringah in the House of Representatives since 1994.

In 2013 he was elected Prime Minister and served for two years. In this time his Government repealed the carbon and resource rent taxes; finalised bilateral trade agreements with China, Japan and Korea; and halted people smuggling to Australia.

Mr Abbott was Opposition Leader from 2009 to 2013.  
From 1996 to 2007 he was a member of the Howard Government and held positions of parliamentary secretary, minister, and Leader of the House of Representatives. He variously served as Minister for Health, Workplace Relations, and Employment Services.

Before entering Parliament, Mr Abbott was a journalist with The Australian, a senior adviser to Opposition Leader, John Hewson, and Director of Australians for Constitutional Monarchy.

He has economics and law degrees from the University of Sydney and an MA from Oxford which he attended as a Rhodes Scholar.  He is the author of three books.

Since 1998 Mr Abbott has convened an annual bike ride that has raised more than $4 million for medical research, indigenous health scholarships and Carers Australia. He does surf patrols with the Queenscliff Surf Life Saving Club and is a former deputy captain in the Davidson Rural Fire Brigade.
Professor Robert (Bob) Carter 1942-2016
Bob Carter was born in England and grew up in New Zealand.

After graduating with a BSc in geology from Otago and a PhD from Cambridge, Bob taught at Otago and then James Cook University (JCU), where he was a Professor and Head of Earth Sciences for 17 years.

This was followed by appointments as an adjunct research professor at the JCU Marine Geophysical Laboratory, then as a visiting research professor at the University of Adelaide. 
Bob's published research is diverse.  It encompasses palaeontology, palaeoecology and paleoclimatology, as well as the Great Barrier Reef and sea-level and climate change.

As a consequence, Bob became one of the world’s leading authorities on the science of climate change and a staunch critic of poor science and of public policy based on poor science.

Bob helped found the NZ Climate Science Coalition and served as a scientific advisor to think tanks around the world on climate change. They included the Institute of Public Affairs (Australia), the Heartland Institute (US), the Science and Public Policy Institute (US), and the International Climate Science Coalition.

At the time of his death Bob was a long-serving Director of AEF and its Scientific Adviser.