Monday, 3 April 2017

Seven things that National Geographic is confused about Climate Change

National Geographic has a link:

However, it looks more like Seven things that National Geographic is confused about Climate Change.

NATGEO 1: Earth's temperature goes up and down from Year to year.....

Yes, so far, so good. However, they continue:

But over the past half century it has gone up a lot. 

Figure 1

Above is the lower troposphere temperature as produced from the RSS data set. Note the two peaks at 1998 and 2016 with much lower temperature between the peaks. This is definitely not shown in the
NatGeo's FAKE graph:

NATGEO Figure 2

The Wood For Trees graph (Figure 1) is from satellite data. Again National Geographic is wrong in saying:
Satellites probing the atmosphere have documented a clear warming trend.

A new report on the State of the Climate in 2016 authored by Professor Ole Humlum which is based exclusively on observations rather than climate models was published last month by the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF). (LINK)

Among the key findings of the survey are:
  • While 2016 was one of the warmest years on record, global temperatures dropped back at the end of the year to levels prior to the strong 2015/16 El Niño. This fact suggests that much of the global 2015–16 temperature peak was caused by a one of the strongest El Niños on record.
  • Since 2003, the global temperature estimate based on surface station measurements has consistently drifted away from the satellite-based estimate in a warm direction, and is now about 0.1◦C higher.
  • Much of the heat given off during the 2015–16 El Niño appears to have been transported to the polar regions, especially to the Arctic, causing severe weather phenomena and unseasonably high air temperatures.
  • Data from tide gauges all over the world suggest an average global sea-level rise of 1–1.5 mm/year, while the satellite-derived record suggests a rise of more than 3 mm/yr. This noticeable difference between the two data sets still has no broadly accepted explanation.
  • Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice extents since 1979 have developed in opposite directions, decreasing and increasing, respectively. In the Arctic, a 5.3-year periodic variation is important, while for the Antarctic a cycle of about 4.5 years duration is important. Both these variations reached their minima simultaneously in 2016, which explains the recent minimum in global sea-ice extent.
Prof Humlum said: 
“There is little doubt that we are living in a warm period. However, there is also little doubt that current climate change is not abnormal and not outside the range of natural variations that might be expected.”

NATGEO 2. Carbon Dioxide warms the planet and we've increased the amount in the air since the 1960s.  

NatGeo says CO2 forms a thickening blanket that traps heat at the Earth's surface.

IN the Laboratory this may be true, however, in the atmosphere, there is the logarithmic affect of CO2 (LINK)

As can be seen from the graph, the most warming comes from the first 60-80 parts per million. NatGeo says, and we have no reason to disbelieve them, atmospheric CO2 has increased from 316ppm in 1960 to 404 in 2016 (although an independent source tells me the current atmospheric level of CO2 is 397 ppm.)

NATGEO 3: We're sure. More than 9 out of 10 climate scientists agree.

Oh! NO. Not the old unscientific appeal to authority. And not the old discredited 97% of scientists (from several false studies) These figures have been debunked so many times (eg here, here, here) it is amazing that alarmists like NatGeo are not embarrassed to still include it in arguments.

NATGEO 4: Ice is melting fast

Really? As far as Antarctica is concerned, NASA (LINK) says this is not true.
A new NASA study says that an increase in Antarctic snow accumulation that began 10,000 years ago is currently adding enough ice to the continent to outweigh the increased losses from its thinning glaciers.
The research challenges the conclusions of other studies, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2013 report, which says that Antarctica is overall losing land ice.
What about melting Arctic Ice?


The Superhot Arctic Refuses To Melt!

We know that Arctic sea ice extent has been at relatively low levels this past winter. However, most of the deficit has been on the periphery, mainly in the Barents Sea, or way outside the Arctic anyway, areas which would soon melt away anyway. 
The natural consequence of this reduced ice coverage is that enormous amounts of heat have been escaping from the oceans during the Arctic winter, a phenomenon that is part of the Earth’s thermostat. 
However, largely as a consequence of this low ice extent, the spring melt has been slow to arrive. 
Normally, the Arctic reaches maximum extent on Feb 28th, yet this year extent was still above that day’s level on 13th March, and in the last week has actually been growing again.

OK, OK, I hear you say, what about Greenland?

Again from the above link to NOTALOTOFPEOPLEKNOWTHAT:

In the meantime, Greenland continues to blow away all records with the expansion of its ice sheet.


                                    NATGEO 5. Weather is wreaking Havoc.

Shame on you, National Geographic, Weather is not climate. And even NOAA said extreme weather events are not caused by man-made climate change.

As explained by James Taylor (link):

Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have demolished claims by global warming activists that global warming caused or worsened many extreme weather events last year.

According to NOAA’s new publication, Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective, there is no discernible connection between global warming and 2013 extreme weather events such as the California drought, Colorado floods, the UK’s exceptionally cold spring, a South Dakota blizzard, Central Europe floods, a northwestern Europe cyclone, and exceptional snowfall in Europe’s Pyrenees Mountains.

Coverage of Extreme Events in the IPCC AR5

  • “Overall, the most robust global changes in climate extremes are seen in measures of daily temperature, including to some extent, heat waves. Precipitation extremes also appear to be increasing, but there is large spatial variability"
  • "There is limited evidence of changes in extremes associated with other climate variables since the mid-20th century”
  • “Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century … No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin”
  • “In summary, there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale”
  • “In summary, there is low confidence in observed trends in small-scale severe weather phenomena such as hail and thunderstorms because of historical data inhomogeneities and inadequacies in monitoring systems”
  • “In summary, the current assessment concludes that there is not enough evidence at present to suggest more than low confidence in a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century due to lack of direct observations, geographical inconsistencies in the trends, and dependencies of inferred trends on the index choice. Based on updated studies, AR4 conclusions regarding global increasing trends in drought since the 1970s were probably overstated. However, it is likely that the frequency and intensity of drought has increased in the Mediterranean and West Africa and decreased in central North America and north-west Australia since 1950” 
  • “In summary, confidence in large scale changes in the intensity of extreme extratropical cyclones since 1900 is low”

NATGEO 6.  Extinction of Animal and Plants.

Wikipedia is not a very reliable source, however, their link on extinction of African species (link) reveals:
  • Mammals: Extinct before current warming -24; unknown date - 3;  during late 20th century warming - 1.
  • Birds: Extinct before current warming -40; unknown date - 3;  during late 20th century warming - 5.
  • Plants (from the Americas and Africa): Extinct before current warming -56;  during late 20th century warming - 11.
Nothing unusual happening here, folks, let's move on.

NATGEO 7. Renewables, the fastest growing energy source.

Well, it may be the fastest growing cost of energy. The only renewable energy source that can provide permanent base-load power is hydro. In Australia, lunatic devotion to wind and solar renewables has caused South Australia into periods of black-outs. The state of Victoria has this week closed down their last coal-fired power station and will follow South Australia into the era of power outages.

Sorry National Geographic. Your alarmist report has been exposed as flawed.


  1. The state of Victoria has this week closed down their last coal-fired power station and will follow...
    Really? So there are now NO coal fired power stations in Victoria whatsoever??
    Hint: Yallourn, Loy Yang

  2. #3. - The National Geo headline: More than 97% of climate scientists agree: Our carbon emissions are the 'main cause' of global warming."

    Note: 'Main cause?' For as flawed as Cook's analysis is, he didn't use the terms, main or most (or all - as some President's have claimed).

    "Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming." . . from Cook's "study."

  3. Rather surprised you didn't post my comment earlier (you can delete this one) as I would think that you would have appreciated it. Perhaps I was not clear, or you simply mis-interpreted it. Cheers.

    1. Sorry, it was 3:18 in the morning when it reached here. I was in a deep sleep.

    2. Ha - understood (now). cheers!


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