Thursday, 23 July 2015

John Cook and his UQ Delusions

Self-confessed cartoonist and professional scrawler John Cook has come up with more tripe. One can only hope that he doesn't use any of this in his course at Uni of Qld's Denial 101X.

The course is titled "Making sense of climate denial." Does anyone deny climate?

The 5 telltale techniques of climate change denial

Climate has always changed. Would anyone deny climate change?

An examination of his 5 "Telltale Techniques.

1. Fake experts

This is Headed Fake Experts but is really about the fake 97% consensus. Of course, Scientific Consensus is an oxymoron.

Cook leaps into fiction right from the start mentioning Doran's Examining the Scientific Consensuson Climate Change (The Mythical 97% consensus)

Barry Woods writes that participants wrote, taken from the appendi of the MSc thesis:
“..scientific issues cannot be decided by a vote of scientists. A consensus is not, at any given time, a good predictor of where the truth actually resides..”
“..The “hockey stick” graph that the IPCC so touted has, it is my understanding, been debunked as junk science..” 
“..I’m not sure what you are trying to prove, but you will undoubtably be able to prove your pre-existing opinion with this survey! I’m sorry I even started it!..” (Doran/Zimmerman feedback)  
“..and I do not think that a consensus has anything to do with whether a hypothesis is correct. Check out the history of science…you will find that scientific discovery is generally made by ignoring the ‘consensus..’” (Doran/Zimmerman feedback 
..Science is not based on votes or consensus. Irrelevant question. Besides, which scientists do you regard as relevant?..” (Zimmerman feedback)
Read more HERE - 

Cook's next link:  Andregg et al's Expert Credibility in Climate Change.  Even the title of this paper is flawed and after reading the abstract it should be titled Expert Credibility in Anthropogenic Climate Change.

The paper has been debunked several time; eg Science Bits:
I recently stumbled upon one of the most meaningless papers I have ever seen, it is called "Expert credibility in climate change" by Anderegg, Prall, Harold and Schneider. The paper "proves" that the scientists advocating an anthropogenic greenhouse warming (AGW) are statistically more credible than the "unconvinced". Their main goal is to convince people that they should join the AGW bandwagon simply because it is allegedly more credible.  
In essence, the authors show that the AGW protagonists have more published papers in climate journals and more citations. The authors then carry on with an elaborate statistical analysis showing how statistically significant the results are. The first thing that popped into my mind is the story about a statistician who proved that 87.54% of all statistical research is meaningless... 
See more debunking by Doug L Hoffman, Anthony Watts.

Next Cook links to....surprise!!!  his own much derided paper. Another peer reviewed paper by Legates et al found that Cook's sloppy work created 97.1% but the actual per centage was found, from his own material, reduced that 97.1% to a very tiny 0.3%. Why does Mr Cook invite derision?

2. Logical fallacies

First sentence:
The reason why there's a 97% consensus is because....
Cookie, there is no consensus.
The most common fallacious argument is that current climate change must be natural because climate has changed naturally in the past.
But, the Shrill's most common fallacious argument is that man's emissions of vital-to-life CO2 is causing catastrophic anthropogenic global warming. The three legged chair falls over if one of the legs is broken.


CO2 Three legged chair:

  1. Rise in Global Temperature always precedes rise in atmospheric CO2;
  2. This century CO2  continues to rise while temperature has plateaued and is falling;
  3. IPCC reports do not examine natural changes to climate

3. Impossible expectations

While many lines of evidence inform our understanding of climate change, another source of understanding are climate models. These are computer simulations built from the fundamental laws of physics, and they have made many accurate predictions since the 1970s. Climate models have successfully predicted the loss of Arctic sea ice, sea level rise and the geographic pattern of global warming.

Please, there has been a 20 year plateau in global warming. The models didn't pick that.

Anthony Cox, in full sarc mode,  wrote in answer to Cook's SS "Myths:"

6 Models are unreliable. Completely and utterly. Even Gavin Schmidt thinks so.

Look at how the models have been betrayed  by real world data:

4. Cherry-picking

Signs of global warming have been observed all over our planet. Ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are losing hundreds of billions of tons of ice every year. Global sea level is rising.  Global sea level is rising. 

Mr Cook, if YOU want to cherry pick, why not pick factual cherries instead of creating fictional comic world cherries.

Ice sheets in Greenland losing hundreds of billions of tons of ice every year. 

I hope, before you start your Uni of Qld course, you will correct this whopper.

Greenland's current ice sheet growth is above average according to the Danish Meteorological Institute
Antarctica losing hundreds of billions of tons of ice every year


 Antarctic ice hits a new high

We know that the West Antarctic Peninsula, which juts northward from Antarctica - Hope Bay, at 63°23′S 057°00′W, is near the northern extremity of the peninsula, Prime Head, at 63º13'S, outside the Antarctic Circle.

The Antarctic Peninsula – a mountainous region extending northwards towards South America – is warming much faster than the rest of Antarctica. Temperatures have risen by up to 3ºC since the 1950s however a paper by Professor Don Easterbrook - Professor Emeritus of Geology at Western Washington University  explains why there is no need to worry:


The evidence above shows that:  The West Antarctic ice sheet is NOT collapsing, the retreat of these small glaciers is NOT caused by global warming, and sea level is NOT going to rise 10 feet.
Even the Arctic Ice is returning to pre 1980 levels. 

AND Now - Cookster's Last Stand:

5. Conspiracy theory

The global surface temperature record is constructed by teams across the world, each compiling their own independent record. These different efforts, each using their own methods, paint a consistent picture of global warming. Climate science deniers reject this coherent evidence with conspiracy theories.

DR Jennifer: Homogenised - no Wind, No Rain.

Yep!  And if the data doesn't fit the theory,  "homogenise the data."   See from Jo Nova: here and here; Dr Jennifer Marohasy - here, here, here and I could add Real Science, NotalotofPeople etc etc...or put the Weather Stations where they shouldn't be, or just cheat!

The University of Queensland should have a critical look at the cartoonist Cook- now called 
Climate Communication Fellow for the Global Change Institute at the University
This blog doesn't like to spend much time on ad hominems, preferring to rebut BS ( bad science ) with real science. However, why does the University of Queensland continue to support this self-confessed professional scrawler, with his much derided "97.1% consensus" paper and his debunked "SS Climate Myths"

Surely it also drags down the reputation of the University.

Al Gore sings Al Jolson

Al Gore Sings Jolson:

I’ve been hoaxing you a long time
I never thought so fooled you’d be,
Yet I made you feel the warming was real
Billionaire I wanna be.

The tills are ringing now,  it’s boom time
Send all your money to me
I made you feel, the warming was real
Billionaire I wanna be.


Money - - how I love ya, how I love ya 
My wads of money.
I’ll scare the world to be among the rich with I-P-C-C-Even
Though my money’s growing for me
Plateauing heat goes down so now let me
Tell folks that heat will increase more and more
As I spruik about that carbon war.

Jolson sings Swanee

I've been away from you along time
I never thought I'd miss 'ya so
Somehow I feel, your love is real
Near you I wanna be.

The Birds are singing it is songtime
The banjos strumming soft and low
I know that you yearn for me to 

swanee you're calling me


Swanee - how I love ya, how I love ya 
My dear old swanee. 
I'd give the world to be among the folks in D-I-X-I-E-ven though my mammy's waiting for me,
praying for me down by the swannee. 
The folks up north will see me no more
when I get to that swnee shore.

¶ Spruik (ˈspruːɪk) vb  (intrAustral to speak in public (used esp of a showman or salesman)