Wednesday, 10 June 2015

Climate Pause Plateau

After careful consideration this website has made the following policy decision. (Our Inspiration - Climate Change Predictions.)
Given the overwhelming weight of scientific evidence in favour of the 18 year hiatus in global warming, the 18 Plus Years plateau in the warming of our planet,  this website will no longer give coverage of the views of climate pause deniers.
This announcement will remain in place for a few days. Future articles will examine whether climate pause denialism should be regarded as a form of psychological pathology.

Pope Ponders Paganism.

Another Issue of "Carbon Sense” prepared for The Carbon Sense Coalition by 
Viv Forbes 
and volunteer helpers. Please help us by spreading this around.
10 June 2015
Not since the rule of Emperor Constantine, during the Roman Warm Era, have pagan gods been tolerated in Rome.

Source: Steve Hunter Cartoons

Before Constantine, Romans worshipped 12 main gods including Apollo (the Sun), Diana (the Moon), Flora (the plants), Uranus (the sky), Ceres (the crops), Gaia (the Earth) and of course Bacchus (wine), Venus (love) and Mars (war). Some of these gods demanded tribute and sacrifice.

Christianity, the worship of one forgiving God, slowly absorbed or eliminated its pagan rivals. The Popes in Rome came to lead a Catholic empire of Christians.

In modern times, the old Greek/Roman goddess, Gaia, has been resurrected by the world green movement.

Pope Francis seems to seek an alliance with these nature worshippers.

Unfortunately the Green wolf will never lie down with the Christian lambs.

Christians promote care for humanity especially the weak and the poor. The Gaia worshippers have subordinated humans to “nature” and their attitude to other humans ranges from contempt to deep hatred. Under their extremist Agenda 21, the priests of Gaia would sacrifice humans by restricting their access to land, oceans, food, minerals and energy, and then concentrate the survivors in soul-destroying dormitory cities and food factories. Greens want all descendants of Adam and Eve expelled from our Gardens of Eden.

Christians generally value individual freedom and private property. The Green priesthood will not rest until there is a world government in which there is no private property and all humans are numbered, controlled and planned. They are using climate alarmism to achieve these goals.

Priests and Pontiffs have no place in dictating questions of science and engineering. Climate forecasts and energy policy should be determined by scientific enquiry and sound engineering, not by high-priests dabbling in politics.

An Open letter to Pope Francis on Climate Change:

It is not just the Pope – most religions now see climate concern as a way to restore their appeal to our impressionable youth:

14 May 2015

Global Warming Is a Religion 

"Manmade global warming, for many, is an Earth-worshipping religion. The essential feature of any religion is that its pronouncements are to be accepted on the basis of faith as opposed to hard evidence. Questioning those pronouncements makes one a sinner. No one denies that the Earth's temperature changes. Millions of years ago, much of our planet was covered by ice, at some places up to a mile thick, a period some scientists call "Snowball Earth." Today, the Earth is not covered by a mile of ice; a safe conclusion is that there must have been a bit of global warming. I don't know the cause of that warming, but I'd wager everything I own that it was not caused by coal-fired electric generation plants, incandescent light bulbs and SUVs tooling up and down the highways." 

Dr Walter Williams

Victims of Climate Wars seek Asylum in Asia.

People migrate when they are starving, fearful or oppressed.

Industries are the same.

At the same time that unhappy people are flooding towards Europe and Australia, the climate wars in those same countries are sending struggling business refugees to Asia. They are migrating as government promotion of expensive intermittent energy (wind and solar) and government taxes on hydro-carbon energy cause soaring electricity costs and falling profits.

The sad results of Europe’s infatuation with wind and solar energy toys are clear. Without Russian gas, French nuclear, Scandinavian hydro, North Sea oil, Iceland geothermal and German and Polish coal, the European green zone would freeze in the dark every winter. Green energy is not the solution – it is the problem.

Denmark is a wind energy poster-child. When the wind blows, electricity prices go into free-fall and surplus Danish power is exported to Scandinavia - at discounted prices. Then when the wind drops, the canny Swedes send hydro power back to the Danes - at peak prices. So, Danish wind power does indeed deliver cheap energy (at times) – but to Sweden. Scotland is treading a similar road and its last reliable coal-fired generator was closed last week.

At the height of the solar energy bubble, the sunny Mediterranean countries spent their credit-worthiness in subsidising solar and wind energy. From Spain to Greece, they are now facing bankruptcy, and their industries are migrating.

German politicians illustrate the full spectrum of energy foolishness. They dream of closing their efficient nuclear and coal generators, while also becoming independent of Russian gas and banning shale gas exploration. No wonder their real industries are migrating.

German Government in Crisis over escalating cost of climate policy:

German industry investing outside Germany:

Australia is following Europe, just more slowly. Already much of our industrial base has migrated to Asia or plans to: metal smelting and refining, steel making, oil refining, car and tool manufacturing, weapons and equipment making, food processing and so on.

And, as green doomsters in developed nations also advocate dumping shares in hydro-carbon producing companies, smarter people are picking up these shares at bargain prices, so control and management is also fleeing from the climate wars to Asia.

At the same time, scarce capital in the green war zone is being frittered on UN schemes to inflict green energy on the third world.

Future generations will look back in wonder at this futile expulsion of our capital, industry and jobs. It will not reduce CO2 emissions – just moves them elsewhere with not the slightest effect on Earth’s climate or biosphere.

29 May 2015

Will Better Batteries save Solar Energy?

Tesla boss, Elon Musk (whose companies have received $4.9 billion in government subsidies for his electric cars) is now claiming that his batteries will allow solar energy to power the world: “You can basically make all electricity generation in the world renewable and basically solar  ...” 

This is, at best, pure puffery.

Everyone who owns a car, truck, tractor, quad bike, bobcat, forklift or other mobile machine is hoping that the fortune being wasted on green energy may produce just one real benefit – better batteries. We want batteries that are cheap, light weight, charge quickly with no losses, last forever and store a large quantity of energy. Nothing close is on the market yet.

But better batteries will not make solar energy a competitive source of uninterrupted grid power.

The solar power received at any point on Earth’s surface varies continuously from zero at dawn, peaks at mid-day, and falls back to zero by dusk. It varies from summer to winter and can fall suddenly at any time if clouds, dust, bird poop or snow obscure the sunlight or the panels.

On a clear cloudless day, solar energy can be collected at varying rates over about ten sunny hours, starting with zero as the sun rises, rising in an S curve to the maximum at noon, and then falling again to zero as the sun sets. To use solar alone to produce 24/7 steady grid power, batteries must supply power for the 14 hour shadow zone (which often covers peak demand) as well as smoothing variations during the sunny zone. Assuming no losses in the charging/discharging process and no clouds, solar energy plus batteries will deliver a steady supply of less than 20% of peak generating capacity over a 24 hour period. This means that over 80% of energy collected during any sunny window must be devoted to charging the batteries and is not available for immediate consumption.

However there are also cloudy days, sometimes several in a row. To cover this possibility many more batteries (and solar panels) will be needed for the same guaranteed steady output. And even on an apparently clear day, barely visible high level cloud, dust, haze or smoke can significantly reduce the solar energy that reaches the surface collectors. 

Better batteries can never change this.

Of course green enthusiasts will say: “We’ll charge the batteries using excess power from wind turbines and solar collectors when it’s available, and use the stored energy to smooth out the natural fluctuations.” This may work on the doodle pad of some green academic, but imagine the complications, costs and losses in all these AC/DC conversions, and the risks of grid failure when trying to meet power demand schedules by combining two variable, unreliable intermittent energy producers. And because of the dilute nature of solar/wind energy, huge areas of land must be blighted to collect significant quantities of energy.

If we had perfect batteries, it would be cheaper and simpler to use cheap base-load coal, nuclear, gas or hydro power to charge them, and then use the charged batteries - instead of expensive peaking generators - to handle peak power.

Or with perfect batteries, a householder could use off-peak power to charge his batteries and then use battery power at peak-price times. With widespread use, this could allow all electricity to be supplied cheaply from low-cost reliable base-load generators.

Better batteries are worth striving for, but they will never make solar energy grid-ready. 

4 June 2015

Rethinking Green Power

The sweeping victory of the conservatives in UK has brought swift changes in the fortunes of the subsidised wind industry. The British Prime Minister has stated that in England and Wales there is no longer any subsidy for onshore windfarms that are not already approved, and that future applications will be decided by the local authorities (ie Councils). (But the silly sods still support producing expensive electricity by burning wood cut from American forests and shipped to Britain, and are also spending one billion pounds building an absolutely useless tidal power generator.)

In America, the republican controlled House has removed funding for the Green Climate Fund, the Clean Technology Fund, the Strategic Climate Fund and also for the UN centre for climate alarmism, the IPCC.

And in Australia, the Senate is conducting another enquiry into wind turbines.

The Carbon Sense Coalition made a detailed submission to this enquiry entitled “Why Wind Won’t Work.”

Alert readers will notice that this is the same report as was submitted to yet another enquiry in 2011. Nothing has changed - wind is still variable, dilute, intermittent, costly and environmentally destructive.

Viv Forbes testified to the committee when it sat in Cairns. The testimony is found at page 47:

See the link below for an informative illustration of the activities involved in constructing a wind turbine. Notice the massive amount of hydrocarbon fuels consumed in this process: diesel fuel for all that mobile equipment, and coal for the production of steel, copper, cement and reliable electricity.

There is no doubt that wind energy is losing political puff. No doubt wicked coal will be blamed for this too.

The Last Word.

There are signs of desperation in the global warming camp. For years now, they have been discredited because the global heat-age they confidently predicted has not occurred. So they have tried to divert attention from their failing forecasts by inventing reasons for the failure, changing the alarms from “warming” to “climate change”, “extreme weather”, “rising seas”, “more typhoons”, “droughts”, “floods”, and every other unusual natural event. All caused by wicked human industries of course.

Now, after spending nearly 20 years inventing reasons for the lack of warming, they are now busily fiddling the figures to restore a warming trend (of hundredths of a degree).

And every day now, some unelected international political body such as IMF, UN, EU, G7, G20 the World Bank etc chimes in with dire predictions that hydrocarbon fuels have no future in their brave new carbon-free, freedom-free world.

We must make sure that NOTHING is achieved in Paris. Keep the pressure on your local federal MP and Senators of all parties. Tell them: 

“No binding Agreement in Paris 
and a ‘Get Out’ clause on anything agreed”.

Back in the days when Rome and Carthage were deadly enemies, it was obligatory in the Roman Senate that every speech should end with the words : 

“And Carthage must be destroyed”.

We must show similar dedication and resolve, repeating every day until the Paris Party in December:

“And NOTHING must be signed in Paris”.

Viv Forbes

Disclosure: Viv Forbes has tertiary qualifications in geology, chemistry, physics, maths and soil science, and post graduate studies in economics, politics and climatology. He has worked in earth sciences, mining and financial analysis for governments and several private companies. He is currently occupied with his wife in raising cattle and sheep, and is a non-executive director and small shareholder in a small Australian coal exploration company.
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