Thursday, 7 May 2015

Climate Scientist on: "The Manufactured 97% Consensus"

Climate Scientist Prof Judith Curry gives testimony on the state of the science of climate change before the House committee on the 15th April, 2015.

This video from 1000frolly of Judith Curry contains of highlights of that testimony, including:

  • Concerned that the Climate Change Problem and its solution have been vastly oversimplified;
  • the central issue is extent to which the recent and future warmings is cased by human caused GHG emissions vs natural climate variability;
  • recent data calls into question  whether humans are the dominant cause;
  • reduced estimates of the sensitivity of climate to carbon dioxide;
  • climate models that predict much more warming than has been observed so far;
  • hypothesised climate tipping points are extremely unlikely in the 21st century;
  • the climate models are running way too hot compared with the actual data;
  • extreme statements have come from the White House without justification;
  • Wind and Solar Energy are not up to the challenge;
  • A Manufactured Consensus that we are all supposed to follow
The chairman brings up the point that President Obama keeps linking extreme weather events with climate change. Is he right?

The IPCC, who I regard as a little bit on the alarmist side, frankly, even they acknowledge in their special report on extreme weather events and climate change published 2012, that there is essentially no connection between human caused climate change and extreme weather events.  
This is pushed for reasons of pure politics.

Senator Palmer asked Judith Curry to explain how the administration claims that 2014 is the warmest year on record.

OK. There's about a half dozen different groups doing these analyses and all but one of them found that 2014 was right at the top. But, if you look at the uncertainty in these measurements, most of them found that 2014 was in a statistical tie with two other years, 2005 and 2010, and the UK group with a far more realistic assessment of the uncertainty found 2014 was tied with nine other years. You really couldn't distinguish them statistically. That however was NOT how all this was communicated to the public.   
A long non question from Representative Beyer, ending in "climate change is real...."was answered:
Scientifically the term "climate Change" means "a change in climate," and it's changed for the last 4 billion years or so. This whole issue of human caused climate change is a relatively recent notion.  
So climate is always changing and is going to change in the future. The issue is how much of the change is caused by humans. We don't know. We don't know what the 21st century holds. Climate change may be really unpleasant and that may happen independently  of anything humans do.

When Beyer again brought up the debate about the warmest year, Dr Curry replied:
The climate has been warming since the 1700s, since we came out of the Little Ice Age. We don't know what's causing that warming. 
In the 18th century and the 19th century it's not attributed to humans, so there are other things going on in the climate system that have been contributing to warming over several centuries. We can't blame all of this on humans. And we don't know how all of this is going to play out in the 21st century. We just don't know.
John Moolenaar asked about statements like "the debate is over;" "scientists unanimously agree..."
Whenever I despair of what's going on in the climate field, I look at the recent collapse of the consensus on cholesterol and heart disease......these things, if they're not correct will eventually collapse. Scepticism is one of the four norms of science. It is absolutely essential for scientific progress. It's our job to question the evidence and re-assess conclusions. That's what we're supposed to do. However, in the climate field, there's this manufactured consensus that we're all supposed to step in line and follow. It's rather bizarre. It's disagreement and debate that moves science forward. 
A short half hour video.

Global Temperatures Plateau now 18 years and 5 months

Every time the GWP (Global Warming Plateau) is mentioned, the shrill alarmists try to deny that the plateau exists.

For example, ABC's Environment reported Michael Mann of the fraudulent "Hockey Stick" saying:
"There certainly has not been a hiatus in global warming — global warming hasn't stopped, even though you still hear those contrarian talking points."

Why, if the plateau didn't exist, would the Shrill need to come up with 66 different excuses to explain the cause of the  temperature plateau?

            66 excuses for the 18-26 year 'pause' in global warming (Hockey Shtick)

Now, Climate Depot and Christopher Monckton report the latest data from RSS. (LINK)
'Since December 1996 there has been no global warming at all...A new record length for the Pause: 18 years 5 months.' 
'It remains possible that el Nino-like conditions may prevail this year, reducing the length of the Great Pause. However, the discrepancy between prediction and observation continues to widen.'
The least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface
temperature anomaly dataset shows no global warming for 18 years 5 months since December 1996.
The hiatus period of 18 years 5 months, or 221 months, is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a sub-zero trend.
The divergence between the models’ predictions in  2005 (below), - the observed outturn continues to widen.

Lord Monckton reports the following key facts about global temperature:
  • The RSS satellite dataset shows no global warming at all for 221 months from December 1996 to April 2015 – more than half the 436-month satellite record.
  • The global warming trend since 1900 is equivalent to 0.8 Cº per century. This is well within natural variability and may not have much to do with us.
  • Since 1950, when a human influence on global temperature first became theoretically possible, the global warming trend has been equivalent to below 1.2 Cº per century.
  • The fastest warming rate lasting 15 years or more since 1950 occurred over the 33 years from 1974 to 2006. It was equivalent to 2.0 Cº per century.
  • In 1990, the IPCC’s mid-range prediction of near-term warming was equivalent to 2.8 Cº per century, higher by two-thirds than its current prediction of 1.7 Cº/century.
  • The global warming trend since 1990, when the IPCC wrote its first report, is equivalent to below 1.4 Cº per century – half of what the IPCC had then predicted.
  • Though the IPCC has cut its near-term warming prediction, it has not cut its high-end business as usual centennial warming prediction of 4.8 Cº warming to 2100.
  • The IPCC’s predicted 4.8 Cº warming by 2100 is well over twice the greatest rate of warming lasting more than 15 years that has been measured since 1950.
  • The IPCC’s 4.8 Cº-by-2100 prediction is almost four times the observed real-world warming trend since we might in theory have begun influencing it in 1950.
  • The oceans, according to the 3600+ ARGO bathythermograph buoys, are warming at a rate equivalent to just 0.02 Cº per decade, or 0.23 Cº per century.
  • Recent extreme weather cannot be blamed on global warming, because there has not been any global warming to speak of. It is as simple as that.