Thursday, 16 April 2015

An Honest Climate Scientist: Hans von Storch.

Anthony Cox

In an interview with Spiegelonline, Hans von Storch says:
Der Spiegel
So far, no one has been able to provide a compelling answer to why climate change seems to be taking a break. We're facing a puzzle. Recent CO2 emissions have actually risen even more steeply than we feared. As a result, according to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years.) 
That hasn't happened. In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) -- a value very close to zero. This is a serious scientific problem that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will have to confront when it presents its next Assessment Report late next year.

A serious scientific problem? Not really; if the theory is contradicted by the facts the theory must be wrong.

On the models: 
SPIEGEL: Do the computer models with which physicists simulate the future climate ever show the sort of long standstill in temperature change that we're observing right now? 
Storch: Yes, but only extremely rarely. At my institute, we analyzed how often such a 15-year stagnation in global warming occurred in the simulations. The answer was: in under 2 percent of all the times we ran the simulation. In other words, over 98 percent of forecasts show CO2 emissions as high as we have had in recent years leading to more of a temperature increase. 
If the models can’t get this basic fact right then everything they do must be problematic.

On the climate scientists: 
Unfortunately, some scientists behave like preachers, delivering sermons to people. What this approach ignores is the fact that there are many threats in our world that must be weighed against one another. If I'm driving my car and find myself speeding toward an obstacle, I can't simple yank the wheel to the side without first checking to see if I'll instead be driving straight into a crowd of people. Climate researchers cannot and should not take this process of weighing different factors out of the hands of politics and society.
This is why climate scientists are activists: the facts contradict them and their models do not work. The only thing left for them is to subvert the democratic process by suppressing scepticism.

Hans is an honest man:
SPIEGEL: What could be wrong with the models? 
Storch: There are two conceivable explanations -- and neither is very pleasant for us. The first possibility is that less global warming is occurring than expected because greenhouse gases, especially CO2, have less of an effect than we have assumed. This wouldn't mean that there is no man-made greenhouse effect, but simply that our effect on climate events is not as great as we have believed. The other possibility is that, in our simulations, we have underestimated how much the climate fluctuates owing to natural causes.

Unfortunately the hysteria and distortion of resources which the other climate scientists advocate dominate the honest scientists like von Storch.

AGW is a failed theory and the 100s of billions wasted on this failed theory will not only not be recovered but further waste will occur until our politicians and media take notice of the honest scientists and ignore the activists.