Thursday, 25 June 2015

Forecasting the Future


by IPCC Expert Reviewer Dr Vincent Gray

JUNE 24th 2015


My latest book with the above title is now available free on the website of that name at

However, if you try to put the title in Google you will be told it is forbidden.

So you had better read it now before they have found a way to suppress it altogether. If you have any trouble I am happy to supply a draft copy by Email one Chapter at a time, or by dropbox.

The book is currently being considered for publication


Forecasting is difficult particularly about the future. This saying is variously ascribed to Mark Twain, Neils Bohr, Zhou Enlai, Yogi Bear and the US baseball player Yogi Berra.

Genuine climate scientists make genuine weather forecasts which contain genuine estimates of their reliability.

Their origin is told in a recent book by Peter Moore: The Weather Experiment . 

The originator was Robert Fitzroy, former Governor of New Zealand and an outstanding mariner. Although he had no formal scientific training he established the basic scientific principles which apply today. He committed suicide when he was convinced he had failed but his ideas survived after all.

Climate Change pseudo scientists do not make forecasts. They make projections -none of which have ever been successful. They try to claim that they can make backforecasting but this has also failed completely since the globe is no longer warming, the ice is no longer melting and the sea level is not rising.

This does not stop environmental activists, politicians, United Nations officials Government leaders and even popes claiming the most extreme of the IPCC projections will undoubtedly happen unless we destroy our current energy supply arrangements.

These Forecasts do not include any information about the sort of world that is likely to arise if they happen. The recent meeting of G7 leaders thought that the whole world would be decarbonised by the end of the century, but none would say what it would be like without power stations, cars,or home heating.

Since it is no longer possible to dispute the results of pseudoscience business people are already ignoring them completely.

For example the BP Review of World Energy 2015 has now been published at and Energy-economics/statistical-review-2015/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2015-full-report.pdf

They have also provided a foredast of energy usage up to 2035 at

Their forecasts might be considered surprising. Here are some examples:

So the Chinese will rescue the world by using coal that the others try to stop using.


You would think that the economists who support the Global Warming theory would be busy trying to assess the economic damage it has already done and try to scare us with what we may expect. But no, it seems they are following BP and getting real instead.

The first example cones from a publication of the Victoria University of Wellington School of Government, Policy Quarterly. This excellent publication is available free and can be downloaded from their website at 

The magazine often has articles supporting the climate change doctrine, including a special number. The February number is different as it features income inequality and has a fine article by Geoff Bertram who is a climate change supporter, but this time on how the claim of global income inequality by Thomas Piketty applies to New Zealand. Brian Easton shows that it is because the previous Labour Government lowered taxes on the rich. Other articles are on gender inequality and the poverty trap of solo mothers. 

The current (May) issue on Global Development in the Twenty-first Century is even more impressive. The key article is by Ross Garnaut who is notorious in Australia as the author of a key survey of climate change for Kevin Rudd in 2011.

Although he pays lip service to this he ignores it completely with a monumental survey of current economic trends. Here are some of his graphs:

He shows that that world economies have applied a super Keynesian policy of printing money and low interest rates to recover from the 2009 bank meltdown. This policy has worked, but only if it is ultimately rescued by future technology, The rescue has partially happened in the US with fracking. 

They are now an oil exporter instead of an importer. But their debt has escalated and the ordinary people are worse off. Many who lost their homes are now in trailer parks. House prices and stocks have escalated. The US Federal Reserve is already planning return to sensible interest rates when New Zealand is planning to go down even further.

Obama is making token pretence on climate change to encourage the Europeans to founder. Their banks are faced with paying out ever more printed money to baijlots where the likelihood of repayment is zero.

Garnaut dismisses the population explosion by plotting only fertility in developed countries, he argues that they will revert downwards in Africa when they become prosperous. In the meantime, we must endure the refugee crisis.

In the same issue Geoff Bertram puts in further support for Piketty.

Then, on top of all this we have another reformed global warmer, none other than Gareth Morgan who has an economics article in the New Zealand Listener June 27-July 3rd.

He tells a very similar story to Garnaut. He is more forthright and he emphasizes several New Zealand mistakes, such as the over emphasis of investment in property instead of
in profitable enterprise. He even ventures forecasts which ignore any consideration of cutting carbon emissions.

All the economists agree that the system is about to break down. Could the European banks really afford to throw yet more money at Greece, Ukraine, who else? Piketty expects a revolution. We all sit and wait while the climate crisis becomes more and more irrelevant.

Vincent Gray
Wellington 6035
New Zealand


  1. have your read the replies to vincent yet geoiff ?

    1. Notice that you have still not learned about Capitals and Punctuation. Notce also that you still don't sell-edit before you hit the submit button.

      To what replies to Vincent are you referring Joihn?


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