Wednesday, 8 April 2015

Monckton: No Global Warming for 18 years and 4 months

Global temperature update: no warming for 18 years 4 months
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Since December 1996 there has been no global warming at all (Fig. 1). This month’s RSS temperature – so far unaffected by the most persistent el Niño conditions of the present rather attenuated cycle – shows a new record length for the ever-Greater Pause: 18 years 4 months – and counting.
This result rather surprises me. I’d expected even a weak el Niño to have more effect that this, but it is always possible that the temperature increase that usually accompanies an el Niño will come through after a lag of four or five months. On the other hand, Roy Spencer, at his always-to-the-point blog (, says: “We are probably past the point of reaching a new peak temperature anomaly from the current El Niño, suggesting it was rather weak.” I shall defer to the expert, with pleasure. For if la Niña conditions begin to cool the oceans in time, there could be quite some lengthening of the Pause just in time for the Paris world-government summit in December.

Read More at Climate Depot - HERE
Key facts about global temperature
  • The RSS satellite dataset shows no global warming at all for 220 months from December 1996 to March 2014 – more than half the 435-month satellite record.
  • The global warming trend since 1900 is equivalent to 0.8 Cº per century. This is well within natural variability and may not have much to do with us.
  • Since 1950, when a human influence on global temperature first became theoretically possible, the global warming trend has been equivalent to below 1.2 Cº per century.
  • The fastest warming rate lasting ten years or more since 1950 occurred over the 33 years from 1974 to 2006. It was equivalent to 2.0 Cº per century.
  • In 1990, the IPCC’s mid-range prediction of near-term warming was equivalent to 2.8 Cº per century, higher by two-thirds than its current prediction of 1.7 Cº/century.
  • The global warming trend since 1990, when the IPCC wrote its first report, is equivalent to below 1.4 Cº per century – half of what the IPCC had then predicted.
  • Though the IPCC has cut its near-term warming prediction, it has not cut its high-end business as usual centennial warming prediction of 4.8 Cº warming to 2100.
  • The IPCC’s predicted 4.8 Cº warming by 2100 is well over twice the greatest rate of warming lasting more than ten years that has been measured since 1950.
  • The IPCC’s 4.8 Cº-by-2100 prediction is almost four times the observed real-world warming trend since we might in theory have begun influencing it in 1950.
  • The oceans, according to the 3600+ ARGO bathythermograph buoys, are warming at a rate equivalent to just 0.02 Cº per decade, or 0.2 Cº per century.
  • Recent extreme weather cannot be blamed on global warming, because there has not been any global warming to speak of. It is as simple as that.
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  1. From Gary in Dubbo, NSW. Ph 0418 240 806

    I'm no scientist but I have a theory on some of the "climate change events" - not global warming.
    Please use your imagination here.
    Suppose you put a line around a ping pong ball with a texta colour. If this was the earth, you could call that line the equator. Let's also put a small black spot about a half inch below the centreline (Equator) & let's also call this "spot - Australia."
    Now let's put that ping pong ball on a record players' turntable with the "equator line" parallel to the turntable & turn the turntable on so that it rotates at 33rpm - just like you are playing a record.
    Let's now set up a stand located just off the side of the turntable.
    On this stand, we mounted a "Laser pointer" that was turned on & the red laser light was shining on the texta mark (or Equator line) on the ping pong ball.
    Let's keep rotating the turntable as though we are playing a record and keep the red laser light shining on our equator line. (I know, we really need to rotate the whole setup around the red laser line but like I said - use your imagination.)
    Now someone thumps the table that the turntable is sitting on & this causes our ping pong ball to move very slightly. The response is the "laser light" is now shining slightly off the "Equator line" on the ping pong ball but is still going around in "roughly" the middle of the ball. The only difference is now, is the laser light is now shining slightly closer to the black dot than it was before the thump.
    Let's call the thump, the earthquake that happened in 2004. Apparently it caused the earth to move slightly on its own axis.
    Using the above example, wouldn't the climate slightly change at the "black spot level - Australia" because the sun (our laser pointer) is now shining slightly brighter in a different spot on our ping pong ball. (The Earth)
    Just curious - what are your thoughts?


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