Tuesday, 7 January 2014

An icebreaker gets stuck in the ice, Stephan Lewandowsky tries to mislead

The Spirit of Mawson or
The start of a scientific grant?
Stephan Lewandowsky has written a piece for the Conversation trying to excuse the farcical voyage of the Ship of Fools aka The Spirit of Mawson.

As the world knows, this ill-conceived voyage set out to Antarctica in order to push global warming alarmism and show that Antarctica was melting.

So where does Lewandowsky start his comical tale? Down in Antarctica? Whoooooops! Not up in the arctic area. Hello?
No one could look at the graph below, which shows the extent of arctic ice during the past 1,450 years, without realising that the polar ice cap has been melting at a rapid and wholly unprecedented rate over the past few decades.

Well this graph is not Lewandowsky's 1,450 years but it does cover the last 30 or so years. No one could look at this graph and think that "the polar ice cap has been melting at a rapid and wholly unprecedented rate over the past few decades."

As the Uni of NSW holiday Jaunt was going through their last preparations, there were headlines re Arctic Ice:

Global warming? Satellite data shows Arctic sea ice coverage up 50 percent!

It appears that Lewandowsky is guilty of the "distortion and misrepresentation when it comes to climate reporting" of which  he accuses others.

But forget the Arctic. It is not relevant. What was happening down-under from us down-under? What was happeining in the Antarctic? (Below from an item: "Ice-bound scientists get first-hand global warming lesson.")

The dramatic display of increasing Antarctic sea ice provides an opportunity to highlight the many predictions that have not come to pass. For instance, the 2007 Climate Change Synthesis Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected sea ice would shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic, with Arctic late-summer sea ice almost entirely disappearing by the latter part of this century. 
But ice surrounding Antarctica set a new record high this year, reaching its annual winter maximum in September. Sea ice extended over 19.47 million square kilometers according to NASA, breaking the previous record of 19.44 million square kilometers set the year before.

Lewandosowsky continues: "How much is Antarctica melting?" And then gives a graph of the combines Antarctic and GREENLAND Ice. Hey, Professor Lewandowsky, Antarctica is at the bottom of the Southern Hemisphere? Artic - Northern! Greenland - Northern Hemisphere! Get it?

 And then another diversion from Lewandowsky - "a bronzed Aussie swimmer in his budgie smugglers..." who was at Bondi, not in the Antarctic.

Pictures and graphs can inform when they present scientific data.

Or they can be used to mislead.
The actual data, meanwhile, paint another picture about global sea level rise: a steady increase in mean sea level over the past two decades.

Yep! A rise of ~ 60mm in twenty years; 300mm per century at that rate. Although, as the professor fails to point out, sea level changes can happen for various reasons.

From Taxing Air
Sea-level rise is one of the most feared impacts of any future global warming. But public discussion of the problem is beset by poor data and extremely misleading analysis,which leads to unnecessary alarm.A proper understanding of the risks associated with sea-level change can only be attained by maintaining a clear distinction between changes in global sea-level (often also called eustatic sea-level) and changes in local relative sea-level.
Change in local relative sea-level is commonplace along coasts, and has been observed by mankind for millennia.A rising sea-level can adversely impact on local communities, and even give rise to legends, like that of Atlantis.As well, and even at the same time as sea-level is rising in one place, a fall in relative sea-level can occur in other places.That this is so relates to the fact that tectonic move- ments of the Earth’s crust differ from place to place, in some places sinking and in others rising. Coast lines are also eroded landwards by wave action, and else- where extended seawards as river deltas grow through sediment deposition.
In many places, historically, appropriate human engineering responses have been made to changing sea-level. For example, sea-level rise has been combatted by the building of sea walls and protective dykes. In applying such measures, the Dutch have sensibly based their coastal planning on scientific knowledge of locally observed rates of shoreline and sea-level change.
Gee, get really scared and start building dykes.

How Big? Well make them 300mm (about 1 foot) for now and we can assess it again in 50 or so years!




The Spirit of Mawson Film titles


The world has poured scorn on the ill-conceived Spirit of Mawson episode; an excursion wanting to prove Antarctica was melting.

The French for example:
Under these conditions, and based on the synopsis of the expedition, as well as the accounts of a more than festive ambiance on board, one is entitled to wonder about the real scientific character of this adventure.”
“An obvious amateurism…obstinacy and naivety”
- See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2014/01/04/damning-french-analysis-of-turneys-expedition-debacle-was-caused-more-by-an-obvious-amateurism/#sthash.oIqjxjki.dpuf
Under these conditions, and based on the synopsis of the expedition, as well as the accounts of a more than festive ambiance on board, one is entitled to wonder about the real scientific character of this adventure.”
“An obvious amateurism…obstinacy and naivety”
- See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2014/01/04/damning-french-analysis-of-turneys-expedition-debacle-was-caused-more-by-an-obvious-amateurism/#sthash.oIqjxjki.dpuf
Under these conditions and based on the synopsis of the expedition, as well as the accounts of the more than festive ambiance on board, one is entitled to wonder about the real scientific character of this adventure. An obvious amateurism...obstinacy and naivety.
As ABC TV reported before the holiday jaunt:
MARGOT O'NEILL, REPORTER: Here in hot, dusty Queensland, scientist Chris Turney is training for the icy desolation of Antarctica. He and his team must learn how to drive this all-terrain vehicle, because if sea ice collapses under them, this vehicle will float.
Oh! how they would later wish that the sea ice would collapsed.
The research stakes are high. Antarctica is one of the great engines driving the world's oceans, winds and weather, especially in Australia. But there's ominous signs of climate change. 
Go, ABC! Push the falsified hypothesis of (man-made) climate change.

MARGOT O'NEILL: Professor Turney and his co-leader Dr Chris Fogwell are selecting PhD students for the expedition to help record thousands of measurements, assessing signs of climate change on the frozen continent

I wonder if they read this report before they left. Then again perhaps not!

Antarctic sea ice still at record high — where is springtime melt?

Meanwhile the twittersphere is having fun with these buffoons by creating film titles for the failed University of NSW holiday jaunt.

Go to twitter: #spiritofmawsonfilmtitles. Some of the suggestions:
  • The Good Ship, the Bad ‘Scientist’, and the Ugly Scam of AGW;
  • Carry on Cruising;
  • Raiders of the Lost Antarctic;
  • The Taking of Iceberg B09B;
  • AN Inconvenient Truth; 
  • Help;
  • On Cruised into the Penguins' Nest;
  • Mission Impossible starring Tom Pleasure Cruise;
  • The Nutty Professor;
How about:
  • A Midsummer Night's Nightmare;
  • Turney's Ragtime Band;
  • All About Eve Ice;
  • All that Jazz Ice;
  • Bound for Glory Ridicule