Tuesday, 7 January 2014

An icebreaker gets stuck in the ice, Stephan Lewandowsky tries to mislead

The Spirit of Mawson or
The start of a scientific grant?
Stephan Lewandowsky has written a piece for the Conversation trying to excuse the farcical voyage of the Ship of Fools aka The Spirit of Mawson.

As the world knows, this ill-conceived voyage set out to Antarctica in order to push global warming alarmism and show that Antarctica was melting.

So where does Lewandowsky start his comical tale? Down in Antarctica? Whoooooops! Not up in the arctic area. Hello?
No one could look at the graph below, which shows the extent of arctic ice during the past 1,450 years, without realising that the polar ice cap has been melting at a rapid and wholly unprecedented rate over the past few decades.

Well this graph is not Lewandowsky's 1,450 years but it does cover the last 30 or so years. No one could look at this graph and think that "the polar ice cap has been melting at a rapid and wholly unprecedented rate over the past few decades."

As the Uni of NSW holiday Jaunt was going through their last preparations, there were headlines re Arctic Ice:

Global warming? Satellite data shows Arctic sea ice coverage up 50 percent!

It appears that Lewandowsky is guilty of the "distortion and misrepresentation when it comes to climate reporting" of which  he accuses others.

But forget the Arctic. It is not relevant. What was happening down-under from us down-under? What was happeining in the Antarctic? (Below from an item: "Ice-bound scientists get first-hand global warming lesson.")

The dramatic display of increasing Antarctic sea ice provides an opportunity to highlight the many predictions that have not come to pass. For instance, the 2007 Climate Change Synthesis Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected sea ice would shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic, with Arctic late-summer sea ice almost entirely disappearing by the latter part of this century. 
But ice surrounding Antarctica set a new record high this year, reaching its annual winter maximum in September. Sea ice extended over 19.47 million square kilometers according to NASA, breaking the previous record of 19.44 million square kilometers set the year before.

Lewandosowsky continues: "How much is Antarctica melting?" And then gives a graph of the combines Antarctic and GREENLAND Ice. Hey, Professor Lewandowsky, Antarctica is at the bottom of the Southern Hemisphere? Artic - Northern! Greenland - Northern Hemisphere! Get it?

 And then another diversion from Lewandowsky - "a bronzed Aussie swimmer in his budgie smugglers..." who was at Bondi, not in the Antarctic.

Pictures and graphs can inform when they present scientific data.

Or they can be used to mislead.
The actual data, meanwhile, paint another picture about global sea level rise: a steady increase in mean sea level over the past two decades.

Yep! A rise of ~ 60mm in twenty years; 300mm per century at that rate. Although, as the professor fails to point out, sea level changes can happen for various reasons.

From Taxing Air
Sea-level rise is one of the most feared impacts of any future global warming. But public discussion of the problem is beset by poor data and extremely misleading analysis,which leads to unnecessary alarm.A proper understanding of the risks associated with sea-level change can only be attained by maintaining a clear distinction between changes in global sea-level (often also called eustatic sea-level) and changes in local relative sea-level.
Change in local relative sea-level is commonplace along coasts, and has been observed by mankind for millennia.A rising sea-level can adversely impact on local communities, and even give rise to legends, like that of Atlantis.As well, and even at the same time as sea-level is rising in one place, a fall in relative sea-level can occur in other places.That this is so relates to the fact that tectonic move- ments of the Earth’s crust differ from place to place, in some places sinking and in others rising. Coast lines are also eroded landwards by wave action, and else- where extended seawards as river deltas grow through sediment deposition.
In many places, historically, appropriate human engineering responses have been made to changing sea-level. For example, sea-level rise has been combatted by the building of sea walls and protective dykes. In applying such measures, the Dutch have sensibly based their coastal planning on scientific knowledge of locally observed rates of shoreline and sea-level change.
Gee, get really scared and start building dykes.

How Big? Well make them 300mm (about 1 foot) for now and we can assess it again in 50 or so years!


  1. I think it is past time that your blinkered vision, for whatever purposes, is exposed. You should read the scientific explanation as to why the sea ice in the Antarctic is expanding (in one area, whilst fast melting in another). There is much detail that you deliberately fail to address. These climatic variations were forecast long ago,
    frighteningly now, they are occurring much more quickly than anticipated. Remember too, that the Poles melting will accelerate the warming, as there will not be as much reflection of the heat. Please read this article and don't just deny it as it doesn't suit your ambitions.

    1. My ambition is to rid the world of the wastage caused by fools bowing to the falsified man made global warming hypothesis; the idiots trying to kill off life on Esrth by reducing vital-to-life carbon dioxide (and deceptively calling it carbon.)

    2. Your link goes to a clown who uses the despicable term "denier" so normally I would read no further however he goes on

      Snow and ice are disappearing from the Arctic region at unprecedented rates Huh?

      As Lewandowsky said in the original article:

      The power of graphs and pictures, and the anecdotes they can evoke, are also powerful means by which people can be misled

      Look at the graphs above from Sea Ice. Unprecedented Rate?

      After more than 17 years with no global warming, all these crazy theories are coming out of the woodwork to try to explain the unexplainable.

    3. It always surprises to see that climate scientist go to the polar regions to study anything other than the CO2 captured in ice cores.

      Lacey "reflection of the heat" off the polar regions is a joke. There is an iota of the heat that scorches the equator. It's less that 2% of planetary warning.

      That's why it is so cold up / down there.


      Greater that 50% of the planets "heat" shines down on the tropics.

      Ever see an expidition of climate scientists heading for Singapore, Kinshasa, or Quito, Equador?

      Nah f**k, hell no it's dead boring there! Besides everyone can watch what you're doing.

      Well it's the tropical 'heat' driving the huge ocean's energy transfers across the vast uninterrupted Pacific ocean, as the primary driver, and that system draws in the trade winds into the HADLEY belt, and that set of systems is the primary driver of the world's weather (and over the ages - climate) systems.

      Note: Sea Ice has NEVER accumulated in the Pleistocene or Halocene - it is barely a few meters think. No significant Ice Cap in the arctic.

      Whereas over Greenland there are parts were the ice buildup is a few hundred meters thick.

      BUT the real build up of ice is in the Antarctic, which is many thousand meters thick (!) and has built up since the Triassic, which is millions upon millions of years ago.

      That's where the bulk of the ice is. Upwards of 90% of the planet's ice, and a few pegs above 80% of all the world's fresh water.

      Sea ice!!!

      Pfhhhwwt! Spare us the comedy.


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