Thursday, 15 August 2013

Alarmists wrong...dare I say it?....Again!

John Ransom, writing for Town Hall.com has a great piece with the heading:

Global Warmers Get it Wrong on Arctic Ice, Haircuts

A reader last night posted an article via Reddit that dug back into the BBC archives from 2007. 
It was the journalistic equivalent of a high school yearbook photo of the Global Warming crowd sporting mullets in 1987, complete with high tops and black jeans. 
Well, that gets the wrong haircuts out of the way. He then continues, referring back to a BBC report from Wednesday, 12 December 2007 headed

Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013' 

Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice. 
Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years. 
John Ransom then says:
In what today would pass for a punch line of a good joke rather than serious science, the BBS, er, BBC concluded with this high point: “Former US Vice President Al Gore cited Professor Maslowski's analysis on Monday in his acceptance speech at the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony in Oslo.”   (see An Inconvenient Truth Revisited)
So, the BBC's 5-6 years from Dec 2007 leads us to, with the error bars, somewhere between Dec2012 and Dec 2013. So, what is the truth?

Two recent reports:

Arctic sea ice loss dramatically slows; record minimum unlikely in 2013

The (Arctic Sea Ice) blog notes Arctic sea ice actually expanded by 20,000 square kilometers for 10  days at the end of July. 
“That’s so crazy for this phase of the melting season that I barely have words for it,” the blog says. “It’s unique as far as the record goes.”
And the most recent report:

Arctic sea ice is increasing

Largest coverage in over 5 years

The Centre for Ocean and Ice, located in Greenland, has put out the latest data for sea ice coverage in North America. 
I post this graph (see above) to show that the Arctic sea ice is not melting at a record pace.In fact, the surface ice area has increased greatly compared with 2008-2012. 
The area of latitude 80 degrees to 90 degrees is having a record cold summer.

We understand that the Alarmists have reputations to uphold and grants to maintain, but how much more contrary evidence do they need before they come out waving the white flag?


See Also: The Poles are Icing Up - Alarmists take note.


An Inconvenient Truth revisited

How did Al Gore's movie "An Inconvenient Truth" win him an Academy Award?

The Galileo Movement's new video 

Al Gore "The Inconvenient Truth" Global Warming Revisited

is shining the spotlight on Al Gore and "An Inconvenient Truth" and making some shocking findings. 


In this second video we put Al Gore and his movie, An Inconvenient Truth under the spotlight and make some startling findings.
For more information please visit 
http://www.galileomovement.com.au.http://www.conscious.com.au/

The Galileo Movement seeks to foster open and free discussion of major scientific issues, notably the current debate regarding global warming, or as it is now known, climate change.

AGW lies, Hiroshima and academics.

AGW lies, Hiroshima and academics.

by Anthony Cox

The comparison between the alleged destruction cause by (Anthropogenic Global Warming) AGW and the atomic bomb dropped at Hiroshima was first raised by professor of geology Mike Sandiford. Sandiford compares the human effect on the environment to the atomic bomb:
To put these numbers into a more human context we need a new measure for our energy use. The “Hiro” is one. It is the equivalent to the energy released by detonating one Hiroshima “Little Boy” bomb every second. One Hiro equals 60 trillion watts. In these terms, our human energy system operates at a rate of 0.25 Hiros, or one Hiroshima bomb every four seconds. That is the equivalent of more than eight million Hiroshima bombs going off each year. 
This is a disgraceful bit of misanthropy made nonsensical by the fact that the natural energy of the system on Earth is a million times greater than the energy produced by humans and that the energy produced by humans is incremental. We don’t set off atomic bombs when we walk out the door; our energy is expended over time.

Such is the insignificance of the energy impact of humans on the Earth’s system that if humanity were to disappear tomorrow all traces of our energy would be gone in a geological blink of an eye.

However Sandiford’s insidious metaphor has been picked up by another academic with even less pretension to expertise in the field of AGW. This time the Ivory Tower has let loose one David Holmes, a lecturer in communications, whatever that is.

Holmes outdoes Sandiford because now humanity is letting off FOUR Hiroshima atomic bombs every second. Not one but four!

As a taxpayer are you getting annoyed yet?

Holmes continues by saying all these Hiroshimas, Hiros for short, are going into the oceans which is accumulating heat or energy or Joules or something at the usual rate leading to the destruction of all life on Earth as we know it; in short the usual hysterical alarmism from AGW acolytes.

Holmes’ article is the usual garbage tip of scary images and smokestacks billowing out black smoke. If these people were not causing witless governments of all persuasions to waste billions this would be hilarious. But they are causing the wastage of billions so hilarious this is not.

To go through each and every one of the canards dribbled out by Holmes the communicator would give unmerited dignity to this dreck and anyway it has all been done before with posts by me and cohenite at this site.

It is sufficient to look at Holmes’ basic lie; which is all the heat going into the ocean. The first deceptive thing Holmes does is to exclude heat coming out of the oceans. When you do a comparison of the heat coming out of the ocean with the heat going into the ocean, guess what, they are essentially the same as Willis Eschenbach shows:

Image: WUWT

Eschenbach concludes after deducting the energy going out of the ocean from that going in: 
On average, little energy is going into the ocean, only two-tenths of a watt per square metre. In a world where the 24/7 average downwelling energy is about half a kilowatt per square metre, that’s tiny, lost in the noise. Nor does it portend much heating “in the pipeline”, whatever that may mean.
The second is that neither the average forcing, nor the trend in that forcing, are significantly different from zero. It’s somewhat of a surprise.
Eschenbach of course will often be surprised since he is a scientist. One feels that academics like Sandiford and Holmes will never be surprised because they are ideologues whose minds are made up.
The second deception Holmes makes is to ignore what the real world is telling us about heat in the oceans. As David Evans explains that data is showing little heating of the oceans. As well sea surface temperatures are declining:



The salient point about this is if the ocean surface is cooling how can heat be moving past the surface and going to the ocean depths? The leading expert [sic] from the AGW coterie of scientists, Trenberth, in his paper on ocean warming says heat misses the surface and moves deeper due to increasing wind variability [see paragraph 1]. Has the wind variability been increasing?

So Holmes doesn’t know what he is talking about. He is merely a propagandist. So many academics are like Holmes. They use the imprimatur of their academic position to give weight to their ideological beliefs. Australia has not been well served by its tax-payer funded intelligentsia on the issue of AGW.