Wednesday, 7 August 2013

Climate Models Are Failing - IPCC Lead Author

Graph: Roy Spencer.
Previously this blog posted -regarding Australian PM Rudd's interview on the Bolt report:

Australian Prime Minister Amazingly Ignorant on Climate Matters (Link)

 One exchange involved IPCC lead author Hans von Storch:
ANDREW BOLT: Another IPCC scientist, Hans von Storch - I’m sure you’ve heard of him, very prominent - has said that there’s been no - essentially no warming for 15 years. In another five years, if there is no more warming, he will have to reconsider the global warming theory. Will you reconsider your adherence to the global warming theory if there is no more warming for another five years?

KEVIN RUDD: There are two sources of authority that we should listen to, because we pay them for their best and considered advice. One is the International Panel of Climate Change scientists - not just-

ANDREW BOLT: I’ve just quoted one.

KEVIN RUDD: Yeah, you’ve just quoted one of 4,000-
Where  did PM Rudd get his mistaken belief of 4000?  Amazingly Ignorant. And does the PM realise that it is not International - but the political InterGOVERNMENTAL?

Andrew Bolt was probably referring to an article that originally appear in the German Newspaper Der Spiegel, June 20, 2013 


Climate experts have long predicted that temperatures would rise in parallel with greenhouse gas emissions. But, for 15 years, they haven't. In a SPIEGEL interview, meteorologist Hans von Storch discusses how this "puzzle" might force scientists to alter what could be "fundamentally wrong" models.
The Managing Editor of Environment & Climate News, James M Taylor has written of the matter -


United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change lead author Hans von Storch told Der Spiegel that climate models are having a difficult time replicating the lack of global warming during the past 15 years. 
“So far, no one has been able to provide a compelling answer to why climate change seems to be taking a break," said Storch.
It's the old "models vs data" argument. See Roy Spencer's Graph above (Link

Von Storch says that the models say that it should be much warmer.
"According to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years. That hasn't happened. In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) -- a value very close to zero," Storch told Der Spiegel. "This is a serious scientific problem that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will have to confront when it presents its next Assessment Report late next year.
So, according to Hans von Storch, when will we know that the CAGW hypothesis has failed.
"If things continue as they have been, in five years, at the latest, we will need to acknowledge that something is fundamentally wrong with our climate models. A 20-year pause in global warming does not occur in a single modeled scenario. 
James Taylor notes WUWT's Anthony Watt's comment:
“The nature of science is to go where the data tells you to go, not to go where you believe you should, and that is what von Storch is doing as a scientist. Meanwhile, those who go in the direction they believe they should go—or are told to go—are continuing on like lemmings marching to the sea, blissfully unaware that the road of science has a U-turn sign up ahead. The belief-system pileup at the U-turn will be something to behold.”
Wood for trees

The RSS satellite data show no significant warming for Twenty-Three (23) years. Three years past Herr von Storch's 20 year key point.



The Poles are icing up - Alarmists take note.


Fig 1. Antarctic Record Sea Ice: Image Jo Nova
The Alarmists would like to tell you that the poles are melting and even that the melting Arctic Ice will release Methane (link)and so exacerbate the warming.


Can it be true?


As can been seen from Figure 1, there have been daily records set for a number of days recently and have been hovering near record highs all year.


Fig 2. Arctic Sea Ice Extent: Image DMI.
But, you say, that Arctic is melting, isn't it?

Well, no, as you can see from Figure 2.


As Pierre Gosselin points out on his excellent blog, NoTricksZone: 
The chart shows this year’s current sea ice at about 5.2 million sq. km. Last year it was about 3.5 million sq. km. That’s an increase of almost 50%!
See also the following confirming links:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html (Figure 3)

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html (Figure 4.)

Will these be reported in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's forthcoming  Fifth Assessment report? Will the MSM be shouting "Hooray! All is good!"


Figure 3

Figure 4.

H/t Marc Morano, Gordon Fulks, Jo Nova.




Replace the Carbon Tax with . . . NOTHING

Spreading Carbon Dioxide.
"Carbon Sense"

by Viv Forbes

Common sense on carbon, food, energy and climate. 8 August 2013
www.carbon-sense.com
    

Public opinion is what decides elections and changes legislation. Help us stop this war on carbon.
If every recipient sends this email to five more, we will play our part in changing public opinion.

Replace the Carbon Tax with . . . NOTHING


To view in your browser, or if images are missing from this email, a pdf print-ready copy of this newsletter with all illustrations in place can be downloaded from:    http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/replace-ctax-with-nothing.pdf


Killing Australia’s carbon tax is a good idea but it should happen immediately, not later.

But replacing it with an ETS is a very bad idea and should never happen.

The carbon tax is a known amount, simple in principle, needs no bankers or brokers, and all receipts end up in Australian hands. And it is easy to abolish at any time.

The ETS is a variable and unpredictable carbon tax. It creates business uncertainty, is complex in operation, encourages brokers, lawyers and speculators and it will drain our money to middlemen and into the European carbon credit casino. And it will create a growing army of vested interests who will forever oppose its abolition.

Neither the fixed tax nor the vacillating tax will have any beneficial effect on climate.

The carbon tax should be axed, but replaced with . . . NOTHING.


Consumers will be Creamed in the Corrupt Carbon Credit Casino

Some people think an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is superior to a Carbon Tax.

It’s time to expose the corrupt carbon credit casino.

In this casino, producers are forced to pay for emitting the same harmless, colourless, non-polluting, natural gas of life that every human produces in his lungs with every breath.

At the same time, other smarties are paid to promise they will not emit the gas they intended to emit tomorrow.

The size of this carbon tax paid by Australian business will reflect speculations in the ETS of old Europe, where the carbon scam started. Foreigners will collect much of it.

In the middle of the ETS casino, empires of bankers, brokers, speculators, lawyers, auditors and regulators will wax rich by clipping every transaction, and an army of bureaucrats and academics will feed on the government windfall.

And at the end of this feed chain, innocent consumers get creamed.

All of this confirms that we live in a political madhouse.

The Heavy Cost of Climatism:

"The heavy cost of green energy policies might have been justifiable if they had delivered results, but they haven’t. Since the Kyoto treaty on climate change, global emissions have continued to rise. Since 1990 they have increased by about 50 per cent. China’s increase in emissions has been 25 times greater than the reduction by the EU’s core nations. In so far as Europe has actually met its environmental obligations it has only done so by exporting industrial capacity (and jobs). Once the environmental impact of imported goods has been added to its carbon footprint Europe has clearly failed to keep its environmental promises."
 
From Tim Montgomerie in The Times:
“The greens can’t defy gravity. They’re finished.”

Even the BBC is starting to challenge the serial lies of alarmist politicians:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23306153
Why the greens want to hide the truth about your soaring bills:


Who’s Afraid of a Bit of Warmth?

Billions of dollars have been wasted in the war on carbon in the vain hope of reducing natural global warming. This has disrupted the electricity market, caused numerous business closures and created a costly and oppressive climate bureaucracy.

However, Earth’s climate history shows that it is cold, not warmth, that destroys life. Ice ages have caused massive extinctions and converted verdant life-filled landscapes into barren, frozen, hungry wastelands. Life flourishes in Earth’s warm moist places, but struggles to exist in the icy deserts.

People who live close to nature, such as farmers and village dwellers, always celebrate the coming of spring – the first robins, the cherry blossoms and the new calves. Today, people flock towards the equator as winter comes, and a lack of food forces migrating animals to leave the tundras.

Life can adapt to a bit more warmth but ice is a killer.

This fortunate generation lives in a warm inter-glacial era. When the cycles change, and the ice returns, we will yearn for some global warming and curse those fools who destroyed our capacity to extract and use our abundant carbon fuels to produce food and warmth for our people.


For those interested in looking a bit further:  
Something is now happening on the sun, and it is not caused by man-made carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere. See:



Warmists should Go the Whole Hog

Global warmists claim that carbon dioxide is a dangerous air pollutant which is cooking the planet. They claim it causes ice sheets to melt, threatens polar bears, spreads malaria and asthma, and increases droughts, floods, tornadoes, heat waves and snow storms.

Thus their policies aim to stop generation of electricity from coal and gas, as well as production of cement and steel and usage of petrol and diesel.

However if the globe is really in such danger, then they should also support the removal of all man-made carbon dioxide.

Each human produces over 300 kg of CO2 per year just by breathing out. There are seven billion of us. Surely everyone should be equipped with gas absorbent masks to catch all this dangerous man-made gas?

And brewers must be forced to produce flat beer to prevent all those dangerous bubbles of carbon dioxide from reaching the atmosphere. Same goes for champagne and all those fizzy drinks.

Bakers will have to stop using yeast and baking soda to create carbon dioxide to put all those holes in bread – nothing but unleavened dampers in future.

Gas-burning barbies are adding to the problem – sun dried meat should be mandatory for biltong parties. And we must extinguish all those pot-bellied stoves and all crematoriums.

Fireworks are a huge problem, producing not only carbon dioxide but also unfiltered smoke and particle pollution. There should be an end to public fireworks and no more government promotion of carbon-belching car racing.

If the future of the globe is in such peril, alarmists must go the whole hog and eliminate all of man’s production of carbon dioxide.

“Taxing Air” by Bob Carter, John Spooner and friends.

Accessible, clearly written and illustrated with simple scientific illustrations, and accompanied by Spooner's brilliantly wry and telling cartoons, “Taxing Air” answers every question you have about global warming but have been too intimidated by the oppressive 'consensus' to ask.

To buy the book, or read more about it see:

And on Facebook:

“My three main goals would be to reduce human population
to about 100 million worldwide, destroy the industrial infrastructure,
and see wilderness, with its full complement of species,
returning throughout the world.”

David Foreman, co-founder of “Earth First”.

Stop the Greens who Gamble with our Future

Greens are concerned with the survival of everything except the human race. They would like to see humans confined to concentrated cities with all humans except authorised green guardians excluded from vast “wilderness areas”. They consistently attack farming, mining, fishing and forestry and have long tried to deny land and ocean space to productive humans. Now they are denying water and efficient energy to those people. Their aim is to strangle industrial man, returning us to backyard-garden peasantry. Always the mantra is “sustainability” or “declining resources”, but they continue to strangle the industries and people that create the resources and sustain western societies. Their actions will ensure our societies and populations are not sustainable. Their model of sustainability will work, but only if 90% of the population is eliminated.

Don’t waste time or energy arguing with dedicated greens or sending them material. They will never change. Talk to uncommitted people and the young. Most extreme greens cannot be converted – they must be replaced. There is only one rule in this election in Australia – judge every candidate (not just the party label) and put the green climate zealots and global warming alarmists in every party LAST.


Viv Forbes


“Carbon Sense” is an independent newsletter produced for the Carbon Sense Coalition, an Australian based organisation which opposes waste of resources, opposes pollution, and promotes the rational use of all energy resources including carbon energy.  

Literary, financial or other contributions to help our cause are welcomed. We get no government grants and unlike many of our opponents, we do not pose as a charity and in fact pay GST and income tax on our operations. We live on subscriptions alone.

For more information visit our web site at
www.carbon-sense.com
If you would like to keep Carbon Sense operating, send subscriptions to
Carbon Sense Pty Ltd, by post to the address below, or direct deposit to:
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Please spread “Carbon Sense” around.

Authorised by: Viv Forbes, Chairman, MS 23, Rosewood   Qld   4340   Australia. 


Viv Forbes takes responsibility for anything above that attracts official interest as “Election Comment or Advice”. 

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