Saturday, 6 April 2013

Global Warming and Climate Science; Science and Politics

A magnificent new paper by Emeritus Professor Cliff Ollier.

Professor Cliff Ollier, School of Earth and Environmental Studies, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia -Department of Geoecology and Palaeogeography, Maria Curie-Skłodowska University, Lublin, Poland

He tackles many of the myths associated with Global Warming Alarmism.
  • Warming has ceased!
  • Direct studies of sea level are showing only small rises. 
  • The greenhouse effect is real, but trivial. Water is the major greenhouse gas, about four to ten times more effective than CO2.
  • Today the icecaps are increasing in thickness, and many glaciers are advancing
    Sea ice shows no change in 30 years in the Arctic.
  • To demonise COagain, a false claim is made that human production of COwill cause the oceans to become acid  
  • Many think that the political decisions concerning climate are based on scientific predictions. This is quite untrue: what the politicians get are projections based on models.  
  • Rising COlevels follow temperature rise as recorded in ice cores. 

Ollier 2013. Global warming and climate change: science and politics   
Quaestiones Geographicae 32(1),
Bogucki Wydawnictwo Naukowe, Poznań, pp. 61–66. DOI 10.2478/quageo-2013-0008


Graphs showing monthly Antarctic, Arctic and global sea ice 
extent  since November 1978, according to the

The threat of dangerous climate change from anthropogenic global warming has decreased. Global
temperature rose from 1975 to 1998, but since then has levelled off. Sea level is now rising at about 1.5mm per year based on tide gauges, and satellite data suggests it may even be falling. Coral islands once allegedly threatened by drowning have actually increased in area. Ice caps cannot possibly slide into the sea (the alarmist model)because they occupy kilometres-deep basins extending below sea level. Deep ice cores show a succession of annual layers of snow accumulation back to 760,000 years and in all that time never melted, despite times when the temperature was higher than it is today. Sea ice shows no change in 30 years in the Arctic. Emphasis on the greenhouse effect stresses radiation and usually leads to neglect of important factors like convection. Water is the main greenhouse gas. The COin the ocean and the atmosphere are in equilibrium: if we could remove COfrom the atmosphere the ocean would give out more to restore the balance. Increasing COmight make the ocean less
alkaline but never acid. The sun is now seen as the major control of climate, but not through  greenhouse gases.
There is a very good correlation of sunspots and climate. Solar cycles provide a basis for prediction. Solar Cycle 24 has started and we can expect serious cooling. Many think that political decisions about climate are based on scientific predictions but what politicians get are projections based on computer models. The UN’s main adviser, the IPCC, uses adjusted data for the input, their models and codes remain secret, and they do not accept responsibility for their projections.