Saturday, 2 February 2013

Pacific Islands sinking - NOT

Maldive stunt cabinet meeting
The Maldives cabinet held an underwater cabinet meeting as a stunt even though they were planning large developments; large airport expansions, new hotels and resorts. An each way bet? Or are the Hotel and Resort developers betting on a sure thing.

Now, a new study exposes the fallacy that islands and atolls of the Pacific are being inundated as sea level rises:

Nature and stability of atoll island shorelines: Gilbert Island chain, Kiribaati, Equatorial Pacific  Rankey, EC Sedimentology Volume 58, Issue 7, pages 1831–1859, December 2011  DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-3091.2011.01241.x


But is this contention correct? In a study that integrated field observations, differential global positioning system data, historical aerial photographs and ultra-high resolution remote sensing images that examined the nature, spatial patterns and rates-of-change of the shorelines of 17 islands on the Maiana and Aranuka atolls of Kiribati's Gilbert Island chain, Rankey (2011) obtained a wealth of data that come to bear on this important question. And the conclusions he derives from that information are vastly different from the data-sparse contentions of the world's climate alarmists.
Rankey found, for example, that short-term (four-year) rates of shoreline changes can indeed be dramatic, with significant intrusion of seawater over sloping shores. However, much longer (forty-year) rates of change are much smaller; and not all of his analyses depict shrinking dry-land surfaces, as some of the studied islands have actually been accruing above-water area. And so it is that he forthrightly and correctly states that "the atoll islands are not washing away."

See also: Lack of sea level rise too political for NSW Government.

CO2 Fertilization improves plant productivity.

The Hockey Shtick reports of a new paper published by the European Geosciences Union's Biogeosciences.

Biogeosciences, 10, 339-355, 2013 doi:10.5194/bg-10-339-2013
P. B. Holden, N. R. Edwards, D. Gerten and S. Schaphoff

New paper predicts CO2 fertilization will greatly improve plant productivity by 40-60%

A paper published today in Biogeosciences finds that the increase in CO2 levels since 1850 has greatly enhanced plant fertilization and that a doubling of CO2 levels would be predicted to increase plant productivity by 40 - 60%. The study derives "a probabilistic prediction for the globally averaged strength of CO2 fertilization in nature, for the period 1850 to 2000 AD, implicitly net of other limiting factors such as nutrient availability" and predicts, "the increase in gross primary productivity (GPP) in response to a doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial values is very likely (90% confidence) to exceed 20%, with a most likely value of 40–60%."