Saturday, 26 January 2013

Obama's exceptionally flimsy case for Global Warming.

During his presidential campaign, Barack Obama tried to steer clear of the global warming  (non)-issue. However during his second inauguration address, he called for new action to “respond to the threat of climate change.”
“Some may still deny the overwhelming judgment of science, but none can avoid the devastating impact of raging fires, and crippling drought, and more powerful storms.”
James Taylor, in an opinion piece for Forbes, addressed these last three points.
President Obama, I agree we should strongly consider the overwhelming judgment of science. Let’s apply the overwhelming judgment of science to your three cherry-picked examples and see what the science reveals.

Leading off the Obama “Big Three” is wildfires. What does the overwhelming judgment of science reveal
The National Interagency Fire Center reports the number of annual wildfires in the United States has been declining for more than 30 years. In fact, the “overwhelming judgment of science” reveals the number of wildfires rose from the 1950s through the 1970s, as global temperatures declined, and has been declining ever since, as global temperatures have modestly warmed.
 Cross fire off the list. What about crippling drought?
U.S. and global soil moisture improved throughout the 20th century as our planet warmed in its recovery from the Little Ice Age. According to the Global Soil Moisture Data Bank, global soil moisture increased throughout the 20th century at almost all sites. Moreover, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that 20th century droughts were quite mild when compared to droughts in previous centuries. This “overwhelming scientific judgment of science” was confirmed in November when a study published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature found “there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years.”
Two down, one to go. Powerful Storms. Surely the US suffered from Superstorm Sandy?
Finally, the President asserts that global warming is causing more powerful storms. This assertion is particularly fictitious. NOAA reports a long-term decline in strong tornadoes striking the United States. The National Hurricane Center reports that the past 40 years have seen the fewest major hurricane strikes since at least the mid-1800s. Even Hurricane Sandy reminds us that the U.S. Northeast has experienced only one major hurricane strike since 1960, but experienced six major hurricane strikes during the 1930s, 1940s, and 1950s, when global temperatures were cooler.
James Taylor 3: Barack Obama Nil.

Read more from James Taylor in Forbes HERE.

No Warming for 16 years


Hadcrut3

Hadcrut4
Dr David Whitehouse, writing for the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) argues that there has been no warming for 16 years and projecting from these figures the temperature in 2100 would only rise by around 1ºC.
The UK Met Office and the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia have released the data for December in their Hadcrut3 and Hadcrut4 global temperature datasets. This completes the data for 2012 and allows it to be placed into context with the preceding years.
Statistically there has been no change in the average annual temperature of the globe since 1997 meaning that the standstill is now 16 years. The latest five-year average of Hadcrut3 and Hadcrut4 data shows a decline for the first time.
After examining a little graph trickery, he moves on to temperature projection.
It is interesting to note that since the IPCC says anthropogenic influences on the climate dominate – post 1980 – the global temperature has risen by 0.3 – 0.4 degrees C in a third of a century. If this rate were sustained then by 2100 the global temperature would have risen by another 0.9 – 1.1 degrees C. This is much less than the much touted 2 degrees C safety limit. Of course many maintain that in the past 16 years natural climatic influences have been acting in the opposite direction to man-made global warming. They expect these influences to diminish and an average rate of warming of 0.2 degrees per decade to occur.