Thursday, 31 October 2013

Poll: Bushfires not caused by man-made global warming

In a Morgan poll conducted 29th and 30th October, a clear majority say the New South Wales bushfires were not caused by human-induced global warming and climate change.

Analysis by Voting Intention

Supporters of the different political parties have very divergent views of the recent NSW bushfires: 78% of L-NP supporters, 62% of Palmer United Party supporters and 64% of supporters of Independents/ Others say that human-induced global warming and climate change played no party in the recent NSW bushfires compared to only 35% of ALP supporters and 29% of Greens supporters. 

However, a majority of Greens supporters (60%) and ALP supporters (56%) say human-induced global warming and climate change did play a part in the recent NSW bushfires compared to only 17% of L-NP supporters, 30% of Palmer United Party supporters and 33% of supporters of Independents/ Others.

Full details of the poll -

Respondents were asked: “Do you think that human-induced global warming and climate change played any part in the recent bushfires in New South Wales or not?

The age groups are interesting. In only one age range did the "Ayes" exceed the "Nays." That was the group who have been fed unga-dunga AGW at school ie the 18-24 group.



by IPCC Expert Reviewer Dr Vincent Gray

 OCTOBER 30TH  2013


Port Arthur MSL Mark
Image: John Daly
Chapter 13 of the IPCC 5th WGI Report claims that sea level will rise by an amount between 0.26 to 0.97 metres by 2100 according to which of their new scenarios actually happens.

Relative Sea Level, the distance between the level of the sea and the level of neighbouring land is what matters to most of us. The Level of the open ocean is only of minor importance. This Report tries to mix the two up in a single chart.

Relative Sea Level is measured by tide gauges which measure the distance between the level of the sea registered on specialist equipment and a supposedly constant benchmark location on the neighbouring land. carried out in over 1000 coastal locations all over the world. The records are averages, over a day, week, month or years.

Both the level of the sea and of the neighbouring land constantly vary  from place to place and from  time to time.

The sea changes level constantly, diurnally and seasonally.  It is influenced by winds, storms and hurricanes and also by earthquakes. The level of the sea may be influenced by breakwaters and  harbour works. The equipment may be damaged or its location altered by storms. Severe storms may prevent correct measurement and give a false reading which interferes with claims for “change."

Land surfaces may change. The land may subside by weight of buildings, and removal of minerals and groundwater.The Report illustrates the problem of measurement near land covered in ice. Geological change (Isostasy) may result from plate movements and earthquakes. Many of these effects cause an upwards bias to the readings.

Long term trends may as much show these changes as any other influence. As a result  they are not a reliable guide to the future.which should be based on a recent period of reliable measurements.

The recent installation of GPS levelling equipment on many sites has greatly improved the reliability of the land-based benchmark. It has resulted in a nearly constant sea level change for many records it is therefore wrong to place reliance on older readings in order to assess future behaviour. It should be based on the most recent measurements which are the least likely to be affected by previous bias.

The records are publicly available at the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level  (PSMSL) website at   at  which features a very convenient map of the world from which all the records can be obtained.

Many records are defective in one way or another. Many have gaps or sudden changes. Few have a long-term continuous record.  Frequently there is little sign of change during the recent decade. 

Evidence that currently there is little or no change in sea level. The following figure from Chapter 13, FAQ 13.1 Figure 1. illustrates this error.

It shows six tide gauge records compared with the supposed global average.

The actual current records, which are shown (rather small), disagree with this supposed trend
  • San Francisco is unchanged since 1990.
  • Charlottetown is unchanged from 1995 to 2010.
  • Antofagasta  is unchanged from 1980 to 2012
  • Pago Pago is unchanged since 2000.
  • Stockholm is actually falling.
  • Manila is a rogue record.

The following website states that the gauge is subject to subsidence

The following records from the Philippines show no recent rise.


 Port Irene    

I have published a study of the Pacific islands which also display no recent rise at

Recently there was a Pacific Forum meeting in Kiribati attended by our Prime Minister which complained that the islands were sinking. And we must take action.
(see also Sinking Islands: Fact or Fiction - Ed)

This is a recent tide gauge record from  Kiribati:

These figures and also those from Australia continue to show little change. The same is true for many islands  as shown at

Future projections for different places from the latest IPCC Report Chapter 13 are shown in their Figure 13.23.

Every one of these actual measured sea levels have shown no sign of change for at least ten years, yet all the projections claim that this settled behaviour will suddenly change to an upwards level of around half a metre by the end of the century.

This is based on models which have failed to predict the lack of a global temperature increase for the past 17 years, yet it is claimed they are causing melting of ice, particularly in the Arctic.

All the models assume that any temperature rise will be least at the poles and greatest at the tropics because the water vapour feedback is lower at the poles. They do not mention Antarctica where the ice is currently increasing.

There are no measurements of temperatures on ice anywhere, on ice caps, oceans or glaciers. In all cases there are other influences on their behaviour. In the Arctic it is the temperature of the ocean and the behaviour of the ocean oscillations.

The ice in the Arctic is beginning to grow now.

The satellite measurements do seem to show a steady increase in sea level, but it seems to be little known that the instruments are subject to drift and they have to be calibrated on tide gauge measurements.

This is described in the following web address

which can be boiled down to

These satellite measurements have only been going since 1992. There have been several calibration problems and it is unclear to what extent it incorporates errors from tide gauges.


Models based on an assumption of a temperature change that is not currently happening, and on melting ice which is absent from Antarctica and which appears to have ceased in the Arctic, are poor guides to practical sea level changes near a coast. These need to be judged from tide gauges measuring recent local behaviour with reliable equipment. 

The IPCC “projections” are thereby grossly exaggerated.

Vincent Gray
Wellington 6035
New Zealand

Climate Change Authority: Last Spasm

Climate Change Authority: Last Spasm

by Anthony Cox

The government has already abolished the Climate Commission and Flannery is off romancing the new lady in his life, ex-prostitute, Kate Holden. Now it is the turn of that equally pompous and irredeemably incompetent Climate Change Authority [CCA] which will soon be abolished by the practical Abbott government.

None the less the CCA has managed to squeeze out one last report about the dire need to reduce our CO2 emissions due to man-made global warming [AGW]. The report is a farrago, an absolute mishmash of unrelenting garbage.

The basis of all its recommendations about increasing renewables and reducing CO2 emissions is Chapter 2, which deals with the ‘Science’ supporting [sic] AGW. Nothing in this chapter is correct; it is misleading from go to woe. Some examples demonstrate this.

On page 2 of Chapter 2 the Report says CO2 is the most important Greenhouse gas [GHG] and is produced in large quantities by humans.

CO2 is not the most important GHG, H2O is. This is beyond dispute despite bizarre ‘consensus’ papers produced on behalf of AGW which purport to show CO2 is a control knob for climate [see point 8 here.].

But there is no question that H2O is at least 2.5 times as important as CO2 in trapping and reemitting radiation as the Report quaintly and erroneously explains. The greater importance of H20 is clearly shown in this table prepared by one the greatest of all climate scientists, Ramanathan:

As is plain when H20 is removed there is a 25% adjustment on radiation flux; whereas when CO2 is removed there is a 9% adjustment. That is at the top of the atmosphere.

The difference within the atmosphere is even more marked. This is illustrated in the famous schematic cartoon prepared for AGW science purporting to show the movement of radiation within the atmosphere by Keihl and Trenberth [K&T]:

K&T show a huge amount of backradiation of 323W/m2; the bulk of this is in the 15um wavelength; is it from water or CO2?
The question is answered in the following paper: Measurements of the Radiative Surface Forcing of Climate, W.J.F. Evans & E. Puckrin, American Meteorological Society, 18th Conference on Climate Variability and Change (2006).
From Evans and Puckrin we see in tables 3a and 3b); Winter H20 94 to 125 W m-2 CO2 31 to 35 W m-2 Summer H20 178 to 256 W m-2 CO2 10.5 W m-2 Not only did the relative CO2 contribution drop in Summer, but the back radiation value decreased from about 30 in Winter to about 10 W/m2 Summer.
How do these Evans and Puckrin (2006) values compare with and confirm the energy estimates in K&T? The back radiation shown in the K&T chart is 323 W/m2. Data from Evans and Puckrin suggests that CO2 accounts for at most 10% of K&T, and in Summer CO2 is only about 3% of the K&T back radiation.
To get close to the K&T back radiation values, there apparently needs to be a LOT of water in the atmosphere; CO2 would only be relevant if there were no water.

As for the claim that humans are producing large quantities of CO2, this is contradicted by the IPCC, the source of the science which the CCA relies on. In the IPCC 4th Report, AR4, Figure 7.3 from AR4 showed the annual flux or movement of CO2 from natural and man-made sources:

The total flux from all sources per year is 218.2Gt; the amount of CO2 from human sources is 8Gt or 3.67% of the annual total.

The CCA Report then says that the increase in temperature since 1950 is extremely likely caused by humans as asserted by the latest IPCC Report, AR5, which has been roundly critiqued. The CCA then scraps the bottom of the barrel by referring to the consensus and the Cook et al paper which has not only been critiqued but ridiculed.

It is worth looking at the Cook paper in some detail because this egregious paper is the basis of all that is wrong with the CCA Report. Put simply Cook used different definitions to both bolster his claim and to exclude contrary papers. As expert statistician William Briggs says:
In any survey such as Cook’s, it is essential to define the survey question very clearly. Yet Cook used three distinct definitions of climate consensus interchangeably. Also, he arbitrarily excluded about 8000 of the 12,000 papers in his sample on the unacceptable ground that they had expressed no opinion on the climate consensus. These artifices let him reach the unjustifiable conclusion that there was a 97.1% consensus when there was not. 
As Ken Gregory states:
 The Cook et al study data base has seven categories of rated abstracts.
1. 65 explicit endorse, >50% warming caused by man (See link in first news release) 2. 934 explicit endorse 3. 2933 implicit endorse 4. 8261 no position 5. 53 implicit reject 6. 15 explicit reject 7. 10 explicit reject, <50 by="" caused="" man="" span="" warming="">
We can't even say that 65 abstracts in the "explicit endorse" category, or 0.54% of 12,000 abstracts, supports the IPCC consensus as many climate skeptics believe the humans (via black soot, UHI, GHG) may cause 50 to 80% of the warming, but strongly disagree that man-made greenhouse gases have caused more that 90% of the 20th century warming. There has been no warming for 16 years, a fact that strongly supports the skeptics case. 
Put bluntly Cook et al is a disgrace yet the CCA uses it as the bulwark of its scientific justification for the rest of its recommendations about comprehensive energy and social policy to be implemented in Australia.

The CCA should follow the Climate Commission and its members can then go about their business like Flannery and no longer cost the rest of Australia vast amounts of money with grandiose schemes to change the weather.

- - - - - - - - -

See Also Terry McCrann's Eliminating Climate Insanity.

Wednesday, 30 October 2013

Sinking Islands: Fact or Fiction? (UPDATED)

“They keep saying that sea levels are rising an' all this. It's nowt to do with the icebergs melting, it's because there's too many fish in it. Get rid of some of the fish and the water will drop. Simple. Basic science.”   ― Karl Pilkington

That's a tongue in cheek quote, but here's another from UN IPCC's SPM:
"Rising sea level is consistent with warming" 
That's a good thing. The alternative is still being stuck in the Little Ice Age. However scientists inform us that the rate of sea level rise is slowing:

Reference   Watson, P.J., 2011. Is there evidence yet of acceleration in mean sea level rise around mainland Australia? Journal of Coastal Research 27, 368-377. 
From the Australian
ONE of Australia's foremost experts on the relationship between climate change and sea levels has written a peer-reviewed paper concluding that rises in sea levels are "decelerating". 
The analysis, by NSW principal coastal specialist Phil Watson, calls into question one of the key criteria for large-scale inundation around the Australian coast by 2100 -- the assumption of an accelerating rise in sea levels because of climate change. 
Based on century-long tide gauge records at Fremantle, Western Australia (from 1897 to present), Auckland Harbour in New Zealand (1903 to present), Fort Denison in Sydney Harbour (1914 to present) and Pilot Station at Newcastle (1925 to present), the analysis finds there was a "consistent trend of weak deceleration" from 1940 to 2000. 
Mr Watson's findings, published in the Journal of Coastal Research this year and now attracting broader attention, supports a similar analysis of long-term tide gauges in the US earlier this year.
Two Australian researchers have had a paper published in Sustainability Science 8 july 2013:

Historical area and shoreline change of reef islands around Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati


Low-lying reef islands on atolls appear to be threatened by impacts of observed and anticipated sea-level rise. This study examines changes in shoreline position on the majority of reef islands on Tarawa Atoll, the capital of Kiribati. It investigates short-term reef-island area and shoreline change over 30 years determined by comparing 1968 and 1998 aerial photography using geographical information systems. Reef islands have substantially increased in size, gaining about 450 ha, driven largely by reclamations on urban South Tarawa, accounting for 360 ha (~80 % of the net change). Widespread erosion and high average accretion rates appear to be related to disjointed reclamations. In rural North Tarawa, most reef islands show stability, with localised changes in areas such as embayments, sand spits and beaches adjacent to, or facing, inter-island channels. Shoreline changes in North Tarawa are largely influenced by natural factors, whereas those in South Tarawa are predominantly affected by human factors and seasonal variability associated with El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, serious concerns are raised for the future of South Tarawa reef islands, as evidence shows that widespread erosion along the ocean and lagoon shorelines is primarily due to human activities and further encroachment onto the active beach will disrupt longshore sediment transport, increasing erosion and susceptibility of the reef islands to anticipated sea-level rise. Appropriate adaptation measures, such as incorporating coastal processes and seasonal variability associated with ENSO when designing coastal structures and developing appropriate management plans, are required, including prohibiting beach mining practices near settlements.

Biribo, N. and Woodroffe, C.D. 2013. Historical area and shoreline change of reef islands around Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati. Sustainability Science 8: 345-362.

What was learned
First of all, the two Australian researchers determined that the reef islands of Tarawa Atoll "substantially increased in size, gaining about 450 ha, driven largely by reclamations on urban South Tarawa, accounting for 360 ha (~80% of the net change)." And of the 40 islands of North Tarawa, where population is absent or sparse, they report that "25 of the reef islands in this area showed no change at the level of detection, 13 showed net accretion and only two displayed net erosion." In addition, they indicate that "similar reports of reef island area increase have been observed on urban Majuro, in the Marshall Islands, again mainly related to human activity," citing Ford (2012). And they say that "a recent analysis of changes in area of 27 reef islands from several Pacific atolls for periods of 35 or 61 years concluded that they were growing (Webb and Kench, 2010)," likely "as a result of more prolific coral growth and enhanced sediment transport on reef flats when the sea is higher," under which conditions they note that "shorelines will actually experience accretion, thus increasing reef island size (Kinsey and Hopley, 1991)."

What it means
Biribo and Woodroffe conclude that "despite the widely held perception that reef islands around the perimeter of coral atolls are eroding and will disappear as a consequence of sea-level rise resulting from global warming, this study shows that the total area of reef islands on Tarawa Atoll has increased over recent decades," just as it has also done on many other reef islands.


See also NIPCC report on this paper:  Link HERE

Additional References
Ford, M. 2012. Shoreline changes on an urban atoll in the central Pacific Ocean: Majuro Atoll, Marshall Islands. Journal of Coastal Research 28: 11-22.
Kinsey, D.W. and Hopley, D. 1991. The significance of coral reefs as global carbon sinks - response to Greenhouse. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 89: 363-377.
Patel, S.S. 2006. Climate science: a sinking feeling. Nature 440: 734-736.
Webb, A.P. and Kench, P.S. 2010. The dynamic response of reef islands to sea-level rise: evidence from multi-decadal analysis of island change in the central Pacific. Global and Planetary Change 72: 234-246.

Tuesday, 29 October 2013

Peter FitzSimons: Bushfire Bastard

Peter FitzSimons:
Bushfire Bastard.

by Anthony Cox

I’ll admit FitzSimons gets up my nose. He is everything which is wrong with the media. Arrogant, opinionated and incapable of changing his mind because his ego is so wrapped up with his ‘position’ on the particular issues he supports.

Like all the left media FitzSimons is a moralist. His position on any issue is predicated on his position being morally right. Therefore, according to the logic of his position, anyone who takes a contrary view is immoral, inferior and deserving of scorn.

It’s a mental prison which has trapped all the left-wing media especially the ABC and Fairfax.

Naturally FitzSimons endorsed and enthusiastically and sarcastically supported the stupid and opportunistic position that the recent bushfires were evidence of man-made global warming [AGW].

In tweets FitzSimons said:

Bolt has looked at the factual ignorance of this tweet by FitzSimons. Which is to say neither cyclones are increasing nor bushfires, nor droughts or floods. In fact the whole tweet by FitzSimons is either a lie or a reckless, irresponsible claim incompatible with the prominence FitzSimons has in the media.

FitzSimons’ wilful ignorance about bushfires and AGW extends to his own paper, the SMH. As Bolt notes FitzSimons makes this claim:
Me? I thought this was effectively blown out of the water by Fairfax writer Tony Wright, who looked a little deeper at Wikipedia and established that: ‘’According to Wikipedia ... they’re the first major conflagrations over more than a century that have occurred as early as October. With the exception of a couple in November, all the rest – and there are about 40 of them – have been in December, January, February, March, and once, in April.’’
This is terrible; even a cursory check of the SMH’s records show coverage of other “conflagrations” as early as October.

As well, bushfires are so common in this country they are sometimes not even reported to any great extent. I can remember doing my HSC in October 1970 when many of my fellow students were called away to fight bushfires on their properties in the Hunter Valley. Mention of them was made in the local paper but it was accepted as normal.

Today we have ignorant vultures like FitzSimons who have considerable influence in the media making pernicious claims about these bushfires and AGW. For that he is a member of the bushfire bastards club.

His pretentious red bandana will make an appropriate symbol for the other poseurs and wankers already in the club.

New Little Ice Age Cometh? Pray for Warming.

Mars Odyssey is a robotic spacecraft orbiting the planet Mars. The project was developed by NASA. The Mars Odyssey spacecraft journeyed more than six months before placing itself in orbit around the red planet in October 2011.

Bill Dunford for the Planetary Society writes:
On March 23, 2013 the Mars 2001 Odyssey spacecraft completed 50,000 orbits around the Red Planet. If it's not a mixed metaphor to call a solar-powered robotic orbiter a workhorse, then Mars Odyssey is a serious contender for the title of Workhorse of the Solar System. In December 2010 Odyssey broke the previous record to become the longest-working spacecraft at Mars.
Mars's southern polar ice cap, seen here in true color,
 has shrunk in recent years due to planetary warming —
 to what's happening on Earth.
Simultaneous rise in temperatures on Earth and
Mars indicates a natural—and not a human—
cause for global warming.
National Geographic, in 2007, wrote of the melting Martian Ice Caps:
Simultaneous warming on Earth and Mars suggests that our planet's recent climate changes have a natural—and not a human-induced—cause, according to one scientist's controversial theory. 
Earth is currently experiencing rapid warming, which the vast majority of climate scientists says is due to humans pumping huge amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. 
Mars, too, appears to be enjoying more mild and balmy temperatures. 
In 2005 data from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions revealed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mars's south pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row. 
Prof. Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of space research at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun. 
"The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars," he said.
Habibullo Abdussamatov, this week was quoted by
Prof. Abdussamatov, who reaffirms, in support of his theory, which, because of strong solar activity, all the planets in the solar system have experienced an increase in temperature in recent years, far more significant than that on Earth, as has happened on Jupiter and Mars, where the temperature increase is also indicated by the decline of the polar caps. Even in the more distant planets like Uranus, Neptune and Pluto can be observed temperature increases. 
He continues:
But now everything will change: the sun came into being relatively "quiet", the solar cycle 24, after a last gasp, end with very few spots, the cycle 25 will be negligible. 
Within a few months the sun will start towards a phase of further "dormancy", characterized by very few sunspots. Accordingly, the climate of northern Europe, including the UK, within a few years will become icy.

This week we have a report from the UK:

Real risk of a Maunder minimum 'Little Ice Age' says leading scientist

According to Professor Lockwood the late 20th century was a period when the sun was unusually active and a so called ‘grand maximum’ occurred around 1985.

Since then the sun has been getting quieter.

By looking back at certain isotopes in ice cores, he has been able to determine how active the sun has been over thousands of years.

Following analysis of the data, Professor Lockwood believes solar activity is now falling more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years.

He found 24 different occasions in the last 10,000 years when the sun was in exactly the same state as it is now - and the present decline is faster than any of those 24.

If we had a vote, I would vote for warming

Climate Scare is an abuse of science

Image: "Our" ABC
"Our" disgraceful ABC used this image to depict
invisible CO2 (non-)pollution
Meteorologist John Coleman interviews Professor S. Fred Singer of the University of Virginia and Professor Bob Carter, ICSC Chief Science Advisor and former head of the School of Earth Sciences at James Cook University, Australia. 

Singer: There is no evidence at all that we can find that humans are contributing in a substantial way to climate change. Nothing to worry about; its bunkum!

Carter: A trained scientist will tell you what Dr Singer has already told you: there is no evidence that human carbon dioxide emissions are causing dangerous global warming. Indeed, carbon dioxide emissions are an environmental benefice. It makes plants grow; it is plant food. It greens the planet.

Bob asks why does the Green environmental movement call Carbon Dioxide a pollutant. (If they were truly "green" they would welcome increased carbon dioxide.)

Carter: To call carbon dioxide a pollutant  is

  • an abuse of logic;
  • is an abuse of language
  • and it's an abuse of science

The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) report referenced by Professor Singer may be seen here.

Joe Bast and Jim Lakely, both of the Chicago-based Heartland Institute, join Mr. Coleman later in the program.

Coleman: It is a very difficult thing to defeat this bad science....

Bast: Research that has been done now shows that the human influence on climate is very small; it's a non-problem. - KUSI News - San Diego CA - News, Weather, PPR