Monday, 2 September 2013

Why do NCTCS preference Labor over LNP in three states?

I’m glad the question has been asked, and I hope the answer I provide here will be given equal prominence to avoid confusion. No, we are not a Labor front group. What we are doing is trying to keep Greens from getting elected.
Let me explain. Suppose there are 69 voters and the quota to elect a Senator is 10. The LNP gets 35 votes, the ALP 25 the Greens 6 and the No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics 3. The LNP elects 3 senators, the ALP 2 and there is a preference race for the last seat with the two major parties each having a surplus of 5. As our vote is lowest we are excluded and our preferences distributed first.
If we got to the LNP, their vote goes up to 8 – still short of a quota. Then the ALP is excluded and their preferences elect a Green. Bad outcome.
However, if our preferences go to the ALP, this puts them in front of the Greens and they instead will win the last “left” seat.
This is a highly simplified example but a similar situation is likely to unfold in those three states. In each the “right” will win three seats and the “left” three – and there is nothing we can do to change that. However we do have the opportunity to potentially change which party gets the last “left” seat and that is what we are trying to do.
Trust us. We really really understand preference math. If you don’t believe me, go here:

Thanks Nathan.


  1. Thanks Geoffrey ....

    It's bloody complicated in a simple way!

  2. Thank you Geoff. We were initially surprised at this preference arrangement and found the explanation difficult but, in the world of real politics, we now understand these counterintuitive preference arrangements.
    Richard and Lisa Peppard

    1. Thanks for your contribution, Richard and Lisa!


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