Thursday, 13 December 2012

IPCC’s Sea level Rise Projections Busted.

Image credit: S. Nerem, University of Colorado
The IPCC’s AR4   
 (Link) and (Link)

Sea level indicators suggest that global sea level did not change significantly from then until the late 19th century. The instrumental record of modern sea level change shows evidence for onset of sea level rise during the 19th century. 

Estimates for the 20th century show that global average sea level rose at a rate of about 1.7 mm yr–1

Satellite observations available since the early 1990s provide more accurate sea level data with nearly global coverage. This decade-long satellite altimetry data set shows that since 1993, sea level has been rising at a rate of around 3 mm yr–1, significantly higher than the average during the previous half century.

Table SPM.1 shows model-based projections (m) of global average sea level rise for the century to 2090-2099.[10]

B1 scenario  
0.18 – 0.38  
A1T scenario  
0.20 – 0.45  
B2 scenario  
0.20 – 0.43  
A1B scenario  
0.21 – 0.48  
A2 scenario  
0.23 – 0.51  
A1FI scenario  
0.26 – 0.59  

Roughly 20 to 60 cm per century that is 200 to 600 millimetres per century or average of 2-6mm per year but general reported as ~3.2mm  yr.

NOAA 2012 report finds sea levels rising at less than half the rate claimed by the IPCC 


The Hockey Schtick has a post on the latest NOAA sea level budget (Link)
According to the latest NOAA sea level budget, global sea levels rose at only 1.1 - 1.3 mm/year from 2005-2012, which is less than half of the rate claimed by the IPCC [3.1 mm/yr] and is equivalent to less than 5 inches per century. Contrary to alarmist claims, sea level rise decelerated over the 20th century, has also decelerated since 2005, and there is no evidence of any human influence on sea levels.

The report compares sea-level rise calculated from two different methods: 1) satellite altimetry and 2) ARGO measurements of the steric [thermal expansion] component + GRACE measurements of ocean mass. The rate of sea level rise using the 2nd method [ARGO + GRACE] shows a sea level rise of only 0.2 {ARGO] + 0.1 [GRACE] = 0.3 mm/yr. Only by adding on a relatively large and highly questionable GIA adjustment [based on a model] of 0.9 mm/yr to the GRACE data do the two estimates come close to agreement. Following this questionable GIA adjustment, the ARGO + GRACE estimate is 1.1± 0.8 mm/yr as compared to the satellite altimetry estimate of 1.3 ± 0.9 mm.

NASA Satellites Detect Pothole  (link)   August 23, 2011


An Update from NASA's Sea Level Sentinels:

Like mercury in a thermometer, ocean waters expand as they warm. This, along with melting glaciers and ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, drives sea levels higher over the long term. For the past 18 years, the U.S./French Jason-1, Jason-2 and Topex/Poseidon spacecraft have been monitoring the gradual rise of the world's ocean in response to global warming. 

While the rise of the global ocean has been remarkably steady for most of this time, every once in a while, sea level rise hits a speed bump. This past year, it's been more like a pothole: between last summer and this one, global sea level actually fell by about a quarter of an inch, or half a centimeter. 

Nils-Axel Mörner detects wash away.

If NASA thinks there is a POT-HOLE, Nils-Axel Mörner thinks that the road has been washed completely away.

In a paper published by the Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI) titled

Sea Level is Not Rising

Professor Mörner makes these main points:
  • At most, global average sea level is rising at a rate equivalent to 2-3 inches per century. It is probably not rising at all.
  • Sea level is measured both by tide gauges and, since 1992, by satellite altimetry. One of the keepers of the satellite record told Professor Mörner that the record had been interfered with to show sea level rising, because the raw data from the satellites showed no increase in global sea level at all.
  • The raw data from the TOPEX/POSEIDON sea-level satellites, which operated from 1993-2000, shows a slight uptrend in sea level. However, after exclusion of the distorting effects of the Great El Niño Southern Oscillation of 1997/1998, a naturally-occurring event, the sea-level trend is zero.
  • The GRACE gravitational-anomaly satellites are able to measure ocean mass, from which sea-level change can be directly calculated. The GRACE data show that sea level fell slightly from 2002-2007.
  • These two distinct satellite systems, using very different measurement methods, produced raw data reaching identical conclusions: sea level is barely rising, if at all.
  • Sea level is not rising at all in the Maldives, the Laccadives, Tuvalu, India, Bangladesh, French Guyana, Venice, Cuxhaven, Korsør, Saint Paul Island, Qatar, etc.
  • In the Maldives, a group of Australian environmental scientists uprooted a 50-year-old tree by the shoreline, aiming to conceal the fact that its location indicated that sea level had not been rising. This is a further indication of political tampering with scientific evidence about sea level.
  • Modelling is not a suitable method of determining global sea-level changes, since a proper evaluation depends upon detailed research in multiple locations with widely-differing characteristics. The true facts are to be found in nature itself.
  • Since sea level is not rising, the chief ground of concern at the potential effects of anthropogenic “global warming” – that millions of shore-dwellers the world over may be displaced as the oceans expand – is baseless.
  • We are facing a very grave, unethical “sea-level-gate”.

Update: Steven Goddard of Real Science: (Link)

Desperate Censorship

I posted the following comment at The Mercury News, which was promptly taken down.
Sea level is not rising in California. The tide gauge at Crescent City shows sea level declining and the ones at Alameda and Monterey show no change in sea level. Satellites show no sea level rise along the entire west coast.
Truth – the one whose name must never be spoken among leftists.
Biggest tides of the year set to hit California later this week – San Jose Mercury News