Wednesday, 5 December 2012

2012 - The Year in Review - peer-review that is....Part 2 Februry

The Year in (Peer) Review.
Over the next weeks, NCTCS blog will present peer-reviewed papers published and featured on the
Totenmaar volcanic lake near Daun at the Eifel, Germany
Photo credit: Dan Hammer
From Ice Age Now
NCTCS blog during 2012. 

To read  Part One - here.

Part 2 - February 2012: 
  • Human Activities -Nil Contribution to Warming;

  • No need to attribute 20th Century Warming to CO2; 

  • Roman Warming Period In Eastern Mediterranean Warmer Than Modern Warming.

Human Activities -Nil Contribution to Warming, Peer reviewed paper. 1 Feb 2012

In terms of Moschen et al.'s stated purpose of hoping to illustrate "to what extent human activities contribute to the recent warming trend observable at a regional and global scale," based on what types of natural climate changes have occurred over the past two millennia, it would have to be concluded that human activities have contributed absolutely nothing in the way of warming, as it was much warmer at Durres Maar, Germany, back in the "good old (High Medieval) days," when there was far less CO2 in the air than there is today.

No need to attribute 20th Century Warming to CO2   8 Feb 2012

 Morellon et al conducted a multi-proxy study of several short sediment cores they recovered from Lake Estanya (42°02'N, 0°32'E) in the Pre-Pyrenean Ranges of northeast Spain. Their studies suggest that  there is no compelling need to attribute 20th-century global warming to the concomitant increase in the air's CO2 content.
 Roman Warming Period In Eastern Mediterranean Warmer Than Modern Warming Peer reviewed  29 Feb 2012  
 With respect to the southern region of Italy, it would appear that the relatively high temperatures of today are not unique. In fact, they may well be somewhat lower than those that prevailed there during the Roman Warm Period. And these findings suggest that the non-unique warmth of our day need not be attributed to a unique phenomenon, such as the historical increase in the atmosphere's CO2 concentration that has resulted from mankind's burning of fossil fuels  


Reduce Your carbon (dioxide) Footprint...Wear a mask!

Michael Williams
World Meteorological Organisation
The Alarmists' aim is to scare the populace in order to gain world governance. CFACT tested how the scare is working by asking the "alarmed" to wear masks.

coral reefs in locations with more frequent warm events may be more resilient to future warming

CO2 Science reports on a peer reviewed paper published in PLoS ONE

Historical Temperature Variability Affects Coral Response to Heat Stress Jessica Carilli, Simon D. Donner, Aaron C. Hartmann Jessica Carilli ... Carilli 1 * Simon D. Donner 2 Aaron ... Carilli et al This is an open-access article distributed PLoS ONE: Research Article, published 30 Mar 2012 10.1371/journal.pone.0034418

Carilli, J., Donner, S.D. and Hartmann, A.C. 2012. Historical temperature variability affects coral response to heat stress. PLoS ONE 7: e34418. 

What was done
Carilli et al., as they describe it, "collected cores from massive Porites sp. corals in the Gilbert Islands of Kiribati to investigate how corals along a natural gradient in temperature variability responded to recent heat stress events," in the course of which activity they "examined changes in coral skeletal growth rates and partial mortality scars (Carilli et al., 2010) to investigate the impact of the bleaching event in 2004 (Donner, 2011) on corals from different temperature variability regimes."

What it means
In the concluding sentence of their paper's abstract, Carilli et al. say their study indicates that "coral reefs in locations with more frequent warm events may be more resilient to future warming," which suggests that taking a little extra heat every once in a while prepares corals to better deal with less frequent but more extreme heat waves when they inevitably do occur.

Accelerating Increase in Greenland Ice Sheet Accumulation - Peer reviewed.

The American Meteorological Society in their journal  "Journal of Climate" have published a paper

Greenland ice sheet mass balance reconstruction. Part I: net snow accumulation (1600-2009)


Ice core data are combined with RACMO2 regional climate model (RCM) output (1958-2010) to develop a reconstruction of the Greenland ice sheet net snow accumulation rate (Ât(G)) spanning years 1600-2009. Regression parameters from RCM output regressed on 86 ice cores are used with available cores in a given year resulting in the reconstructed values. Each core site’s residual variance is used to inversely weight the cores’ respective contributions. The interannual amplitude of the reconstructed accumulation rate is damped by the regressions and is thus calibrated to match that of the RCM data. Uncertainty and significance of changes is measured using statistical models.

We find a 12% or 86 Gt y-1 increase in ice sheet accumulation rate from the end of the Little Ice Age in ~1840 to the last decade of the reconstruction. This 1840-1996 trend is 30% higher than that of 1600-2009, suggesting an accelerating accumulation rate. The correlation of Ât(G) with the average surface air temperature in the Northern Hemisphere(SATNHt) remains positive through time, while the correlation of Ât(G) with local near-surface air temperatures or North Atlantic sea surface temperatures is inconsistent, suggesting a hemispheric-scale climate connection. We find an annual sensitivity of Ât(G) to SATNHt of 6.8% K-1 or 51 Gt K-1.
The reconstuction, Ât(G), correlates consistently highly with the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Yet, at the 11-year time scale, the sign of this correlation flips four times in the 1870-2005 period.

H/t The Hockey Schtick (LINK)