Monday, 29 October 2012

Alan Jones and the Facts about CO2

Closer than Karoly.
Jones and the Facts about CO2.
Recently Alan Jones was subject to an adverse finding by ACMA. The finding was that Jones had not adequately presented the facts about how much CO2 Australia contributes to the atmospheric total.

What ACMA found was that Jones’s statement about the % of CO2 produced by Australia was his opinion and not, as implied when he made it, a scientific fact.

Jones’s opinion was that Australia produced 1/100,000th of the CO2 in the atmosphere. Jones also failed to produce any research to substantiate this opinion presented as ‘scientific fact’.

That is Jones’s error; not that his estimation of the CO2 contributed by Australia to the atmospheric bulk total of CO2 was necessarily wrong but that he presented it as a scientific fact.

The complainant to ACMA was not identified but there was a flurry of pro-AGW disapproval of Jones’s comments at the time from the usual subjects like Karoly who has a record of getting the sums wrong in a way far more egregious than Jones’s ‘error’.

Apparently, according to Karoly, the correct contribution of Australia to the total atmospheric concentration of CO2 is 0.45%.

According to Walter Stark, “Karoly’s figure may be derived by assuming that the purported rise of CO2 from the 280 ppm preindustrial level to current levels is due to anthropogenic emissions. This then puts the anthropogenic contribution at about 30% of current levels and Australia’s 1.5% share of global anthropogenic emissions then becomes responsible for about 0.45 % of total atmospheric CO2.”

Professor Murry Salby’s work makes that assumption that anthropogenic CO2 is responsible for the increase in CO2 problematic. But even if we allow that assumption Karoly’s figure of 0.45% is doubtful.

The bulk atmospheric CO2 is increasing by about 1.5ppm PA or about 4Gt; then there is the annual flux which is the movements into and out of the atmosphere which are described here.

Currently the atmospheric bulk is about 3000Gt; the annual flux is 218.2Gt [from Figure 7.3, AR4].

The amount of human sourced CO2, ACO2, in that annual flux is 8Gt, or about 3.67% of the FLUX.

How much of that flux actually stays in the air and adds to the atmospheric bulk? The answer is given by the US Department of Energy [DOE]; see Table 3 on page 22 of the PDF.

From this we can see that 98.5% of ALL annual emissions of CO2/ACO2 are reabsorbed and about 1.5% of the flux or about 4Gt is added to the atmospheric bulk.

In 2009 Australia was 16th of the world’s nations CO2 emitters, emitting 374 million tonnes or about 1.28% of ACO2.

So, there are all the facts; who is closer to the truth; Jones or Karoly?

1.5% of all CO2, both natural and ACO2, is retained annually to add to the atmospheric bulk.

Of that 1.5% addition, annually, the ACO2 component is 3.67%; so ALL of nations’ contributions is 3.67/100 x 1.5/100 = 0.000552.

Australia’s annual emissions are 1.28% of the global ACO2; so 0.000552 x 1.28/100 = far less than what Karoly said and even less than what Jones said.

So, both Jones and Karoly are wrong but Jones is closer to the truth.

This of course hasn’t stopped more of the usual subjects, like the ubiquitous John Byatt, from congratulating the finding against Jones and arguing against any revelation that their precious AGW is not happening.

It is evident that nothing will convince the believers of AGW that their belief is wrong. In this respect they are like religious fundamentalists. Australia allows for freedom of religion. The question is should the government financially support the religion of AGW and strive to make it the official Australian religion in contradiction of the Constitutional safeguards?