Wednesday, 1 February 2012

Consensus? What Consensus? Part 2

For Consensus? What Consensus? Part 1 see here

US Journalist,  Alan Caruba has written his own take on the letter by the 16 scientists on his blog WARNING SIGNS.

Alan talks of the 16 signatories to the Wall Street Journal Op-Ed piece. Indirectly, TCS blog contributed to the inclusion of one of the signatories.

Alan writes:
What brought them together? On the surface it was just another of the countless articles that have been published over the years as scientists of real merit and courage took on the juggernaut of those for whom global warming had become a vast flow of government and foundation funding.
Alan writes that, with the release of the Climategate e-mails, it became clear that even the Alarmists knew the Earth had entered a cooling cycle around 1998.
The Wall Street Journal article said, in the plainest language, that candidates for public office “in any contemporary democracy…should understand that the oft-repeated claim that nearly all scientists demand that something dramatic be done to stop global warming is not true.”

In fact, scientists had been signing petitions opposing the global warming hoax for a very long time. The problem was that the mainstream media either paid them no attention or dismissed them as "skeptics" and "deniers".
The Inconvenient Truth was that the warming had stalled. The alarmists can "massage" the data but, in the end, they cannot hide the truth, the Inconvenient Truth that warming had stalled.
The article calmly said, “The fact is that CO2 is not a pollutant.” Indeed, more CO2 in the atmosphere is a good thing, aiding increasing crop growth and healthier forests and jungles worldwide.
At one stage the alarmists were saying that the world could not feed the bergeoning world population. However, the increase in vital-to-life CO2 has in fact increased the world's biomass, the world's ability to feed the population.

Alan concludes:
It has taken a very long time for most of the public to come to the conclusion that they have been the object of an elaborate hoax. In America polls demonstrate that global warming is at the very bottom of their concerns these days. In time, wind and solar power, electric cars, biofuels, and other environmental delusions will join that list.

Late Holocene Climate on the Korean Peninsula

From CO2 Science: See

Modern day Korean Peninsula by Night
Park, J. 2011. A modern pollen-temperature calibration data set from Korea and quantitative temperature reconstructions for the Holocene. The Holocene 21: 1125-1135. 

Should we believe the Climate Modelling used by the Alarmist scientists or should we used quantitative paleoclimate data?

The author writes that "information produced by climate modeling has become progressively more important to understand past climate changes as well as to predict future climates." However, Park rightly states that "to evaluate the reliability of such climate model results, quantitative paleoclimate data are essential."

What was done
In a study designed to obtain such "quantitative paleoclimate data" for a part of the world that has not been intensively studied in this regard, the Korean scientist used modern surface pollen samples from the mountains along the east coast of Korea to derive pollen-temperature transfer functions, which were tested for robustness via detrended correspondence analysis and detrended canonical correspondence analysis, after which the best of these transfer functions was applied to the five fossil pollen records of Jo (1979), Chang and Kim (1982), Chang et al. (1987), Fuiki and Yasuda (2004) and Yoon et al. (2008), which were derived from four coastal lagoons of Korea's east coast plus one high-altitude peat bog.

What was learned
Focusing on the late Holocene, and using results obtained from all five pollen data sets, Park found that "the 'Medieval Warm Period', 'Little Ice Age' and 'Migration Period' were clearly shown," the former of which is identified as occurring between AD 700 and 1200, the next of which is identified as occurring between AD 1200 and 1700, and the latter of which is identified as occurring between AD 350 and 700. This earliest period is also commonly referred to as the Dark Ages Cold Period; but it is sometimes described as the Migration Period, as Park reports that it was a time "when people migrated southward in Europe because of deteriorating environmental conditions." Also of significance is the fact that the graphical representation of Park's temperature reconstruction indicates that the peak temperature of the Medieval Warm Period was only slightly lower (by about 0.18°C) than the peak temperature of the Current Warm Period, which occurs at the very end of the Korean temperature record.
What it means
The first important implication of Park's findings is the fact that they imply that "the various late-Holocene climate shifts all occurred in the Korean peninsula at the same time as in other regions of the world." The second important implication is that modern-day warming on the Korean peninsula is only slightly greater than what occurred there back in the Medieval Warm Period. And if one looks a little further back in Park's temperature reconstruction, it can be seen that approximately 2200 years ago it may actually have been slightly warmer than it was near the end of the 20th century AD, suggesting that there is nothing incredibly unusual or unnatural about the earth's current level of warmth.

See also C3 Headlines:

James Hansen has provided proof over the last few decades that climate models are worthless as climate prediction tools - will NASA & the IPCC admit failure?


Human Activities -Nil Contribution to Warming, Peer reviewed paper.

Totenmaar volcanic lake near Daun at the Eifel, Germany
Photo credit: Dan Hammer
From Ice Age Now
From CO2 Science.

A 2000-Year Temperature History of the Mountainous West Eifel Volcanic Field of Germany

Moschen, R., Kuhl, N., Peters, S., Vos, H. and Lucke, A. 2011. Temperature variability at Durres Maar, Germany during the Migration Period and at High Medieval Times, inferred from stable carbon isotopes of Sphagnum cellulose. Climate of the Past 7: 1011-1026. Background
The authors write that "currently, there is specific interest in climate change during our historical past and in the human impact on past and future climate and ecosystem dynamics," and they say that "in this context, the reconstruction of decadal to centennial scale natural climate variability is of importance to estimate to what extent human activities contribute to the recent warming trend observable at a regional and global scale."
What was done
Moschen et al. present "a high resolution reconstruction of local growing season temperature anomalies at Durres Maar, Germany [50°52'N, 6°53'E], spanning the last two millennia," which was "derived from a stable carbon isotope time series of cellulose chemically extracted from Sphagnum leaves (δ13Ccellulose) separated from a kettle-hole peat deposit of several meters thickness," where the temperature reconstruction was based on the temperature dependency of Sphagnum δ13Ccellulose observed in calibration studies.
What was learned
"From the 4th to the 7th century AD," in the words of the five researchers, a cold phase "with below-average temperature is reconstructed, which is in accordance with the so-called European Migration Period," which has also come to be known as the Dark Ages Cold Period. Thereafter, they state that "during High Medieval Times above-average temperatures are obvious." In fact, the peak warmth of this Medieval Warm Period, which looks from the graph of their data to run from about AD 830 to AD 1150, was approximately 2.8°C greater than the peak warmth of the Current Warm Period in terms of individual anomaly points, while it was approximately 2.7°C greater in terms of 60-year running means. And between these two warm periods, the Little Ice Age can be seen to hold sway.
What it means
In terms of Moschen et al.'s stated purpose of hoping to illustrate "to what extent human activities contribute to the recent warming trend observable at a regional and global scale," based on what types of natural climate changes have occurred over the past two millennia, it would have to be concluded that human activities have contributed absolutely nothing in the way of warming, as it was much warmer at Durres Maar, Germany, back in the "good old (High Medieval) days," when there was far less CO2 in the air than there is today.