Tuesday, 3 January 2012

Fake! Fake! Fake! Fake! IPCC's case collapses!

"They are real -- and they're spectacular."
Fred Singer, writing for American Thinker:
In discussing the recent release of some 5,000 Climategate e-mails, blogger Anthony Watts uses the clever headline "They are real -- and they're spectacular."  He credits Jerry Seinfeld as the source.  Following his example, I choose the headline "Fake! Fake! Fake! Fake!"  -- also taken from a Seinfeld episode  -- in discussing the surface temperatures generally reported for the latter part of the 20th century; they form the science basis for prosperity-killing international climate policy.
Here I am using the word "fake" as an adjective, and not as a verb.  I mean to say that the scientific conclusions derived from such temperatures are not real, but I don't imply that the values themselves have been purposefully altered or adjusted.  We simply don't have any information to support such an accusation. 
Fred says that the most reported temperatures are from land based thermometers whereas oceans comprise 71% of the earth's surface. The recent BEST temperatures (see HERE and HERE) were also only land-based from "poorly situated" weather stations.
While we can applaud the fact that the BEST results agree with other analyses of weather station data, we still need to explain why they don't agree with atmospheric trends that are close to zero, or with ocean data that show no appreciable warming. 
As a first step, the BEST data are ideally suited for a number of internal checks.  For example, one would like to see if the number of stations changed appreciably between 1970 and 2000, and if their "demographics" changed -- which might lead to the formation of artificial trends. 
There are many other such tests that can be performed.  They might help us discover why land surface data disagree with all other data; thereby, we may get a better handle on whether the planet is really warming.  We note here that the BEST results do not show any warming trend in the 21st century -- even though carbon dioxide levels have been rising more rapidly than before. 
Mr Singer writes: "But if there is no warming between 1978 and 2000, then IPCC's case collapses -- and so do all policies built on the IPCC conclusion."

2012 Global Warming Report Card

Image: Real Science.
AT Real Science, Steve Goddard has produces the 2012 Global Warming Report Card:

The massive bulk of evidence indicates that nothing is wrong, and that Hansen, Mann and the rest of the hockey team are not being honest with us.
  • Temperatures are below Hansen’s zero emissions after 2000 Scenario C
  • Global temperatures are declining this century
  • Sea level has been declining for several years, and is lower now than it was in 2003
  • Arctic ice extent and area is the highest for the date since 2005
  • Temperatures in western Greenland last year were the coldest since 1996
  • Temperatures in Antarctica have been declining for 30 years
  • Antarctic ice has been increasing for 30 years
  • Winter snow extent is increasing, and has been near record highs in recent years
  • Temperatures in Texas show no increase since 1895
  • Drought in Australia is at historic lows
  • Drought in the US is well below the mean
  • Severe tornadoes are on the decline in the US
  • US hurricane strikes are on the decline
  • Intense hurricanes are on the decline
  • Polar Bear populations have tripled
  • Yellowstone Grizzly Bear populations have tripled
  • USHCN raw thermometer data shows that the US has been cooling since 1895
  • The ten deadliest floods in history all occurred with CO2 below 350 ppm
  • The deadliest US hurricane, the most powerful US hurricane, and the deadliest US tornado all occurred with CO2 below 350 ppm
Let’s put this scam to bed in 2012. It has nothing to do with science, and everything to do with money and politics.

For all the graphs and links go to Real Science.