Wednesday, 28 December 2011

Warm is Better - Peer-Reviewed Paper

CO2 Science reports a peer reviewed paper published in the International Journal of Environment Research which shows that the alarmists are wrong again. Warm is better than cold - an increase in temperature leads to a decrease in the mortality rate.

What was learned
Wichmann et al. found -- during the warm half of the year (April-September) -- that a rise in temperature actually had an inverse or protective effect with respect to CVD mortality (a 1% decrease in death in response to a 1°C increase in apparent temperature), which finding is rather unusual but has also been observed in Dublin, Ireland, as reported by Baccini et al. (2008, 2011), while they found no association with RD and CBD mortality. And at the other end of the thermal spectrum, during the cold half of the year, all three associations were inverse or protective, which finding, according to the researchers, is "consistent with other studies (Eurowinter Group, 1997; Nafstad et al., 2001; Braga et al., 2002; O'Neill et al., 2003; Analitis et al., 2008)."

What it means
Whereas climate alarmists continue to emphasize the primarily negative impact of summer heat waves on human death rates in low- and mid-latitude regions of the earth, essentially neglecting to report what happens there during winter cold spells, Wichmann et al.'s summer results tell a dramatically different story that is likely typical of higher latitudes. And they additionally portray what tends to happen nearly everywhere in winter, noting that during that cold part of the year "only protective effects [of warming] were observed," as may readily be seen to also be the case throughout the world by perusing the materials we have archived in our Subject Index under the general heading of Health Effects (Temperature -- Hot vs. Cold Weather), where the number of warming-induced deaths avoided in winter significantly over compensates for the number of deaths caused by an equivalent warming in summer.

Wichmann, J., Anderson, Z.J., Ketzel, M., Ellermann, T. and Loft, S. 2011. Apparent temperature and cause-specific mortality in Copenhagen, Denmark: A case-crossover analysis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 8: 3712-3727

Read more at CO2 science HERE