Saturday, 10 September 2011

La Nina is ba-a-a-ack, is it a fore-runner to another Little Ice Age?

Image: Bureau of Meteorology
On 31 August the Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported:
Neutral conditions persist in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, though a return to La Niña towards the end of 2011 cannot be ruled out. Trends over the past fortnight include further cooling of the central Pacific Ocean, persistent positive Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values and stronger than normal trade winds. However, cloud patterns are currently close to normal, and all indicators remain well short of the strong La Niña conditions evident at the same time last year.
The majority of international climate model forecasts of ENSO predict that neutral conditions are likely to continue into the southern spring. While no models suggest El Niño conditions are likely, half of the models predict further cooling over the coming season and into the southern summer.
It’s worth noting that since 1900, about half of all La Niña events re-emerged in the second year. Further cooling of the central Pacific Ocean coupled with persistent positive SOI values in the next few months would further increase the chance of a La Niña event at the end of 2011.
How long will we have to wait until we know? The BOM says "end of 2011.." but wait!

Well, until 10th September, when Scott Sistek in KOMOnews reports:

La Nina: 'I'm baaaaaack. Did you miss me?'

Scott graduated from the UW in 1994 with a degree in Atmospheric Sciences and has been producing weather reports for broadcast and on the Web ever since.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center officially upgraded our La Nina Watch to a La Nina Advisory, which in essence means La Nina conditions are forecast to return for the (US) fall (Autumn) and winter.
Forecasts through the summer had shown moderating ocean temperatures and a return to "neutral" conditions (neither El Nino nor La Nina. By the way, those winters tend to run the gamut of conditions) and the expectation was that we would stay neutral through this winter.
Today, the East coast of Australia has been hit with icy wintery blasts due to a low off the coast. (See image.)

How is the Global Temperature going? Lubos Motl has looked at the RSS AMSU data and posts:

Jan-Aug: 2011 second coldest in this century  According to RSS AMSU, the first 8 months were the 2nd coldest January-August period in this century so far (second among 11 candidate years).

So, are we heading for another Little Ice Age? Salomon Kroonenberg, a professor of Geology at Delft University of Technology is quoted in the China Daily. Kroonenburg has published a book -The Human Dimension: the Earth in Ten Thousand Years from Now. In it he challenges Gore's "alarmist rhetoric".
Kroonenberg argues that climate change has been happening since antiquity and humans are known to have survived "two ice ages, with bear skins and ice axes".

"We're smart enough to evolve flexible solutions" to deal with a devastating deluge should the glaciers melt and inundate the earth, Kroonenberg suggests.But more importantly, he insists that reducing carbon footprints would not necessarily make a difference to the future of the world.
Urging his audience to see things in terms of geological time, (10,000 years at a stretch), the geologist contends that we are, in fact, living at the peak of summer between ice ages, and, if the cyclical rhythm of climate change is anything to go by, we should be preparing for a "little ice age" like the one experienced between 1350 and 1800.
Often labeled a "climate skeptic" by the anti-CO2-emissions lobby, and criticized for his indifference to the Kyoto Protocol of 1997, in which parliaments of 55 countries decided to cut down on greenhouse emissions, Kroonenberg prefers to call himself a climate relativist. He doesn't consider CO2 emissions "an insurmountable problem" in the context of nature changing and adjusting itself as a continuous process.
"I don't deny climate has been warming and I also do not deny that humankind has emitted large quantities of CO2. I only challenge the importance of that for climate change.
(H/T to The New Nostradamus who comments
Kroonenberg is spot on when he describes the arrogance of the warmist doomsday prophets. Fortunately, recent polls show that ordinary people are increasingly sharing his view. That´s why there is hope that decision makers and environmentalists before long will again begin to focus on fighting real pollution.



Green Jobs produce oceans of red ink

The Gillard Green government are constantly pushing the benefits of Green Jobs.
Oceans of Red Ink
JULIA Gillard says Australia will probably never put a price on carbon if her planned climate change measures do not pass Parliament this year.
Defending her plan to price carbon emissions, Ms Gillard last night vowed the reforms would create jobs we "could never imagine" before.
and HERE
Building a case to support renewable energy and her carbon pollution tax, Prime Minister Julia Gillard said the abundant Queensland sun could help power the region and keep the environment clean.
"We will protect Australian jobs at the same time as we create new ones," she said.
For Ms Gillard it proves her carbon tax will create green jobs and drive innovation.
However experience shows that far from creating employment, green jobs are very costly and only produce oceans of red ink. The US's Marc Morano (of Climate Depot) argues the case: