Monday, 15 August 2011

Lubos Motl, RSS AMSU, Jan-Jul: 2011 second coldest in this century

According to RSS AMSU, the first 7 months were the 2nd coldest January-July period in this century so far (second among 11 candidate years).

The top 15 ranking of the years 1979-2011 according to the average temperature during the first seven months is as follows:

  1. 1998: 0.652
  2. 2010: 0.545
  3. 2002: 0.373
  4. 2005: 0.356
  5. 2007: 0.310
  6. 2003: 0.295
  7. 2004: 0.230
  8. 2006: 0.206
  9. 2001: 0.195
  10. 2009: 0.168
  11. 1991: 0.163
  12. 2011: 0.138
  13. 1995: 0.134
  14. 1988: 0.121
  15. 1983: 0.118
You can see that the first seven months of 2011 were colder than the same period of 1991 which was 20 years earlier; and of course, 1998 remains the leader of the league: its first 7 months were more than 0.5 °C warmer than the same months of 2011. At the 12th position, 2011 is out of top ten. Only Jan-Jul 2008 with -0.024 °C managed to be colder than the same period of 2011 among the years of the 21st century. So 2011 is helping to make the preliminary 21st century temperature trend even more negative than before; this is no bulšit, angry Al.

Some warming may have been taking place in recent months - because of the delayed effect of the disappearing La Nina a few months ago.

More at The Reference Frame. 

Vincent Courtillot at the Internationa Climate Conference in Berlin Dec 2010

Professor Dr Vincent Courtillot addressing the International Energy & Climate Conference in Berlin, December 2010.  Some quotes:

There is regional warming in Europe but the shape of that warming is not at all what was expected by us…there is ZERO WARMING between 1900 and 1986 in Europe.
In the US the temperature rise from 1910 to 1930 has the same value and  slope as the recent global warming..

Global temperature rise has STOPPED for 12 years..none of the models predict that…

He mentions a 2008 paper by Grudd that says for proxies  one should not measure tree thickness but rather tree wood densities.

Temperature in Europe at least in the twentieth century is not exceptional..... it has been encountered at least five times in the last 1500 years…

National Post report (link in title) on Courtillot under the banner:

Skewed science

CRU’s average temperature data doesn’t jive with that of Vincent Courtillot, a French geo-magneticist, director of the Institut de Physique du Globe in Paris, and a former scientific advisor to the French Cabinet. Last year he and three colleagues plotted an average temperature chart for Europe that shows a surprisingly different trend. Aside from a very cold spell in 1940, temperatures were flat for most of the 20th century, showing no warming while fossil fuel use grew. Then in 1987 they shot up by about 1 C and have not shown any warming since. This pattern cannot be explained by rising carbon dioxide concentrations, unless some critical threshold was reached in 1987; nor can it be explained by climate models.