Sunday, 10 April 2011


APRIL 9th 2011

Vincent Gray. IPCC Lead Author
We have all been subjected to one of the most elaborate con jobs in the history of science by the IPCC and their supporters.

It all began with the only indisputable fact about our climate: that all of our energy comes to us from the sun by means of radiation.

Somebody had the brilliant idea that if all other manifestations of energy were marginalized or suppressed  and everything about the climate was due to radiation, then it would be much easier to manipulate our entire energy system to claim that it was controlled by the minor atmospheric gas that can absorb radiation, carbon dioxide, provided you can get rid of the major gas, water vapour, which is about 650 times the concentration of carbon dioxide.

It is amazing how they have got away with it. The idea that water vapour is a mere "feedback" to carbon dioxide has been accepted without a murmur and all forms of energy flow except radiation are ignored. So most of us who wish to dispute the outrageous consequences of this deception spend our energies worrying about carbon dioxide and global temperature instead of the real issues that affect the climate.

They tell us that the earth would be much colder if it were not for the "greenhouse" gases but they do not mention what it might be like if we had no atmosphere at all. Yet there is an obvious way of finding out. Our satellite, the moon, is approximately the same distance from the sun as we are, so it gets the same input of the sun's radiation per unit area as ourselves, but it has almost no atmosphere.

Since it has no energy input at night, and if it were insulated you would expect the moon to  cool to absolute zero  at night.

The mean night temperature of the moon is -147ºC. with a  minimum temperature of -233ºC with craters as low as -249ºC; not far off absolute zero. The reason it is not colder than this is that the moon  does not have an insulated surface, so there is some residual hear from daytime which  warms it at night.

By day the average temperature on the moon is 107ºC with a maximum of 123ºC. So there is a mean difference between day and night of 254ºC .

Mean day and night temperatures on earth seem not to be available, so we must assume rough figures of 25ºC by day and 10ºC by night (average of 15ºC)

So why is it that there is so much difference (254 ºC) between day and night on the moon, and only 35ºC on the earth?

The answer has to be that the earth has an atmosphere, and that it must play the major role in the earth's climate, cooling the earth by day and warming it by night.

The IPCC have cleverly concealed this major role  by its emphasis on radiation. They have also done it by using models which cover up the important difference between day and night, together with a whole array of other absurd assumptions.

Any schoolboy will know that there are four means of transfer of energy:conduction, convection, latent hest and radiation. The first three are all but ignored by the IPCC

But not quite completely. The two "Global Energy Budgets" by Kiehl and Trenberth (1997) and Trenberth, Fasullo and Kiehl (2009), the diagrams from which were attached to Newsletter No 264, mention two items that cool the earth (on average), "Latent Heat"and "Thermals" and they give values of 78 to 90 W/sqm for Latent Heat and 15 to 19 W/msq for the "Thermals" Each of these quantities are admitted to be highly uncertain; indeed the "Thermals" are obtained by difference between other quantities.

It is immediately obvious that these two effects. including their uncertainties and possible :"trends": are overwhelmingly more important than the claimed 0.9W/msq supposed to have resulted from the increases in human induced greenhouse gases since the year 1700

The Latent Heat of water is 2,270kJ/kg  and its evaporation cools the earth. This happens  mainly during the day, Its return as liquid water or snow is probably not much different between day and night, so its cooling effect is mainly by day

"Thermals" refer to the cooling of the earth's surface by convection in the atmosphere. The  surface that is heated by the sun transfers heat by conduction and  since the hot air is lighter it rises and  is replaced by more. The system generates winds and even hurricanes  and tornados with different patterns which form the basis for weather forecasting. As the air mixes with upper layers the atmosphere cools with height which peters out at the tropopause. The heated air radiates its energy, half upwards and half back down.

This happens only when the sun shines, By night, when there is no input from the sun, the surface cools by radiation, but the atmosphere that has been warmed by day transfers some heat back to the surface. It is more effective with wind intensity, so there is a cooler surface on still nights.

This mechanism operates in exactly the same way in a greenhouse. The only difference is that the amount of air available in a greenhouse is much smaller, so it is able to maintain a higher temperature inside than outside. The fact that the air in the greenhouse cools the sun-heated ground by day is not generally appreciated, nor the fact that it keeps the ground warm at night

These mechanisms, which cool the earth and even out night and day temperatures, are little understood and there is very inaccurate knowledge of the actual quantities of heat transferred by either mechanism or how they vary in time and place.. Both of them  are certainly affected by human activity but there are no attempts being made to find out their extent. Every activity we have with water affects its evaporation. Every  activity affects the degree of convection. These are the true "anthropogenic" effects on the climate. The amounts are certainly far greater than the miserable 0.9W/msq which is claimed to have resulted from emissions of carbon dioxide since the year 1700.


Vincent Gray
75 Silverstream Road
Crofton Downs
Wellington 6035
Phone/Fax 064 4 9735939
"To kill an error is as good a service
as, and sometimes better than, the
establishing of a new truth or fact"
Charles Darwin
" .