Friday, 7 January 2011

The hypothesis was falsified years ago - why won't it lie down?

The hypothesis is that human-caused carbon dioxide emissions are causing dangerous global warming.  Five tests plus bonus test 6

5 tests:
TEST 1)  Has global temperature warmed over the last few years?

Using the data from the CRU – Hadley centre in Britain – the temperature data that the IPCC uses - the fact is that since 1998 and 2005 there is no trend up or down.
9 years no increase in Global Temperature at the same time a 4% increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide

 TEST No 1 Fails.

2) Satellite data – Southern Hemisphere same as it was 28 years ago. The Northern Hemisphere a very slight warming – averaged globally – an even slighter warming so over 25 yrs or so, it has only warmed a very small amount overall.  So, is dangerous warming occurring – NO.

TEST 2a): Is today’s global warming outside the historical natural variation?

Our second test then is whether modern temperature is in any way unusual warm or increasing at an unusually high rate – Again the answer is NO.

TEST 2b)  Is today’s global temperature unnaturally high last 2000 – 5000 years:

Looking at the Egyptian Warm period, The Minoan Warm Period, The Roman Warm Period, The Medieval Warm Period and the late 20th century Warm Period. Nothing unusual in the Late 20th Century warm period.

Again the answer is NO. There is no evidence that the late 20th century warming is in any way unusual either in the magnitude of the peak or in the rate of warming.
TEST 3: Does CO2 output correlate with temperature change?

Compares the IPCC temperature curve from 1860-2000 No Corellation

TEST 4: Does CO2 lead or lag temperature change?

No, the change in temperature precedes by between a few hundred and a thousand or so years the change in Carbon Dioxide. This is a simple cause and effect. The hypothesis says that it is the other way around.

TEST 5: Does the pattern of atmospheric temperature change match theoretical predictions of greenhouse warming?

The fingerprint method. If you have greenhouse warming forced by greenhouse gases the fingerprint you should produce is warming in the upper troposphere in the tropics around 10-12 kilometres and also warming at the surface at the poles. The empirical test of the theoretical prediction is – it fails.

Five tests                           Five Failures

Our “provisional supposition” of dangerous greenhouse warming does NOT account for the known facts.
The hypothesis is thereby falsified, i.e. rendered invalid.


TEST 6: The urban carbon dioxide dome test
The intensity of industrial and vehicular production of carbon dioxide often leads to the development above cities of a concentrated dome of carbon dioxide, especially in winter when the lack of photo synthesising vegetation leads to a reduced sink for the gas.  For example, winter levels of carbon dioxide above Phoenix Arizona range up to 500 ppm and commonly exceed 400 ppm.  That the winter temperatures for Phoenix show no sign of any warming as a result of this is another specific and negative test of the IPCC’s hypothesis of dangerous warming caused by carbon dioxide emisions.

(Bonus Test is from Professor Carter's Great Book: 
Climate: The Counter Consensus)
Reviews of Professor Carter's excellent book can be found at:

Professor Carter on AM Friday 21st January.    Listen here.

BOB CARTER: Lots of scientists have been looking for that evidence but to date there is nothing in the scientific literature which says we have more climatic emergency events at the moment than in the past or that these are more frequent or more dangerous. There is no scientific evidence for that.

MEREDITH GRIFFITHS: Professor Carter says it's not surprising that last year was one of the warmest, but says that doesn't mean greenhouse gases are the blame.

BOB CARTER: The question is not whether it causes warming, the question is how much warming? Since 1998 we've had three warm years - 1998, 2005 and 2010 - and each of those years is associated with an El Nino event which causes or is related to the warming. Okay, but there's no trend, 2010 is not significantly warmer in any way than 1998.

So we have a warm period over a period of 12 years. Over those same 12 years we have a five per cent increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The carbon dioxide is supposed to cause more warming. Well this data that we've just discussed tells you that human carbon dioxide emissions are not causing dangerous global warming, indeed they're not causing any warming at all at the moment.

MEREDITH GRIFFITHS: Professor Carter says the last 150 years have been among the coolest in the past 10,000 years of the Earth's history.