Wednesday, 17 August 2011

Climate Alarmists cause panic in Local Governments.

Central Coast Resident looking for his house.
A link in the title will take the reader to many reports in my (Geoff Brown's) local paper.
A series of stories  with alarmist sea level rise predictions
In the last mention report, The Minister for Human Services said that our region (the Central Coast of NSW) faces the worst sea level rises.
Ms Plibersek said. “The science shows us that the Central Coast faces the highest risk of inundation from sea level rise in NSW. The Federal Government is taking action to tackle dangerous climate change and move Australia towards a clean energy future while supporting jobs and providing assistance to households and pensioners.”
When confronted by 2GB's Ben Fordham, Tanya couldn't remember saying that the Central Coast faced the worst risk (HERE) Funny, as Ben pointed out, it was included in her press release.

However, the Alarmists are not just scaring our local community, their scares are Australia wide and indeed worldwide. From USA Today:
In Chula Vista, Calif., new waterfront buildings will be required to have higher foundations because of an expected rise in sea levels.
In Chicago, where flooding is predicted to worsen, residents can get rebates for putting rain barrels, compost bins and native plants in their yards.
And in New York City, where rising tides are also projected, wastewater treatment plants will elevate their pumps.
Norfolk, Va., is doing a feasibility study on measures such as dam structures to deal with the area's 14.5-inch rise in sea level over the past 80 years — whatever the cause. "The city is trying to be as proactive as possible without engaging in the hyperbole of climate change arguments," says John White, the city's engineer for storm-water systems.
New York City is not only planting a million trees, it also has a $1.5 billion, 20-year plan for green infrastructure to help manage storm-water runoff from increasingly powerful storms.
Is there cause for alarm?  Well, although the 2007 IPCC's 4AR says, for the 21st Century, the sea level ris will be
  • in a low scenario[9] 18 to 38 cm (7 to 15 inches)
  • in a high scenario[10] 26 to 59 cm (10 to 23 inches)
In Professor Bob Carter's "Climate: The Counter Consensus:"

No scientific basis for global-warming related sea-level alarm.
There elementary facts about sea-level change have been taught to university first year science classes
around the world for generations, yet the still seem to elude today's politicians and their advisors. For, also around the world, governments, councils and planning authorities are ignoring the reality of local sea-level changes altogether  and instead using the IPCC's speculative projections for future global sea-level as the basis for coastal planning regulations that effectively confiscate property rights and diminish property values.

    a new paper by Phil Watson published in the Journal of Coastal Research shows that the rate of sea level rise is decreasing. The IPCC sea level rise predictions are based on modeled temperature rise over this century of between 1.1ºC and  6.4ºC.

    Wes Allen, in his excellent book "The Weather Makers Re-Examined" writes:
    Coastal flooding from rising seas has always been global warming's biggest bogeyman. And that threat has been diminishing. The first IPCC report in 1990 projected a maximum possible sea level rise this century of 100cm; in 1995 it was 94cm; in 2001 it was 88cm and in 2007 it was just 59cm. And it may well be closer to that IPCC report's minimum projection of 18cm.

    However, a new paper - Spencer, R.W.; Braswell, W.D. On the Misdiagnosis of Surface Temperature Feedbacks from Variations in Earth’s Radiant Energy Balance. Remote Sens. 2011, 3, 1603-1613 - show that the models are based on a false premise.

    Another New paper -
    Richard S. Lindzen1  and Yong-Sang Choi2
    1Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, U. S. A.
    2Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, Korea
    Asia-Pacific J. Atmos. Sci., 47(4), 377-390, 2011 DOI:10.1007/s13143-011-0023-x
    However, warming from a doubling of CO2 would only be about 1°C (based on simple calculations where the radiation altitude and the Planck temperature depend on wavelength in accordance with the attenuation coefficients of wellmixed CO2 molecules; a doubling of any concentration in ppmv produces the same warming because of the logarithmic dependence of CO2’s absorption on the amount of CO2) (IPCC, 2007).

    This modest warming is much less than current climate models suggest for a doubling of CO2. Models predict warming of from 1.5°C to 5°C and even more for a doubling of CO2





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