Saturday, 30 May 2020

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling

Oh! First of all, the peer revue journal Nature recognises that there was a global-warming hiatus, and then they published (on 28/8/2013) "the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century,  challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming,"

Here is the abstract: (
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12534)

Abstract

Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century1,2, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming3,4,5,6, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970–2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.

Wednesday, 27 May 2020

The Bureau of Meteorology gets it wrong, again.

By Anthony Cox

The Royal Commission into the recent bushfires which while bad was typical for this nation and demonstrated nothing more than the negligence of greenie policies preventing proper preparation through back-burning and hazard reduction, have just started.

The greenie/left maxim of never letting a crisis go unused was evident when Dr Karl Braganza, the head of the Bureau of Meteorology, made his opening statement.



As reported by the ABC, arguably the major reason why Australia has suffered under the green disease, Braganza said:

The commission started its first day of witness hearings with Dr Karl Braganza from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), who said the weather forecasts ahead of the last bushfire season proved to be very accurate.
Dr Braganza told the commission a mix of climate drivers in the past few years led to an extended dry period, hotter-than-average temperatures and reduced humidity, particularly over the south-eastern states.
"We were getting strong indications of our seasonal drivers … that we were going to favour hotter and drier conditions," he said.
"Unfortunately, the conditions turned out to be very severe.
The other misrepresentation by Braganza that the BoM weather forecasts were accurate has also been dealt with by Jo Nova. Jo notes that the pre-Summer forecast by the BoM was:
Summer is looking hot for most of the country and dry for the east, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s summer outlook.
Andrew Watkins, head of long-range forecasts at the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), said the overall outlook for summer is generally warmer than normal conditions over much of the country, with particularly dry conditions for the east.
“The highest chances of it being drier than normal, unfortunately, are in those drought areas through central New South Wales, southern Queensland and eastern Victoria,” he said.
And what in fact happened:


Sydney has been hit by its heaviest rain in 30 years, bringing widespread flooding but also putting out two massive bushfires in New South Wales. Australia’s weather agency said 391.6mm of rain had fallen in the past four days in Sydney, more than three times the average rainfall for February. About 100,000 homes are without power, and officials have warned flash floods could be life-threatening.
The BoM’s prediction record is atrocious and Braganza has at best misrepresented this. However, the real lie is that this mob advises the government on environmental and energy policies. 
What a disgrace.








The Bureau of Meteorology gets it wrong, again.

The Royal Commission into the recent bushfires which while bad was typical for this nation and demonstrated nothing more than the negligence of greenie policies preventing proper preparation through back-burning and hazard reduction, have just started.

The greenie/left maxim of never letting a crisis go unused was evident when Dr Karl Braganza, the head of the Bureau of Meteorology, made his opening statement.


As reported by the ABC, arguably the major reason why Australia has suffered under the green disease, Braganza said:

The commission started its first day of witness hearings with Dr Karl Braganza from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), who said the weather forecasts ahead of the last bushfire season proved to be very accurate.
Dr Braganza told the commission a mix of climate drivers in the past few years led to an extended dry period, hotter-than-average temperatures and reduced humidity, particularly over the south-eastern states.
"We were getting strong indications of our seasonal drivers … that we were going to favour hotter and drier conditions," he said.
"Unfortunately, the conditions turned out to be very severe.
The other misrepresentation by Braganza that the BoM weather forecasts were accurate has also been dealt with by Jo Nova. Jo notes that the pre-Summer forecast by the BoM was:
Summer is looking hot for most of the country and dry for the east, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s summer outlook.
Andrew Watkins, head of long-range forecasts at the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), said the overall outlook for summer is generally warmer than normal conditions over much of the country, with particularly dry conditions for the east.
“The highest chances of it being drier than normal, unfortunately, are in those drought areas through central New South Wales, southern Queensland and eastern Victoria,” he said.
And what in fact happened:

Sydney has been hit by its heaviest rain in 30 years, bringing widespread flooding but also putting out two massive bushfires in New South Wales. Australia’s weather agency said 391.6mm of rain had fallen in the past four days in Sydney, more than three times the average rainfall for February. About 100,000 homes are without power, and officials have warned flash floods could be life-threatening.
The BoM’s prediction record is atrocious and Braganza has at best misrepresented this. However, the real lie is that this mob advises the government on environmental and energy policies. What a disgrace.



Tuesday, 26 May 2020

More Useless Energy Policies

Australian Climate Sceptics Blog
Please post or Spread Around

26 May 2020

More Useless Energy Policies

by Viv Forbes

Australian Minister for Energy

The Australian Minister for Promoting Useless Energy thinks that hydrogen fuel, carbon capture and storage, soil carbon and biofuels are priorities for energy policy and greenhouse gas reduction. 

If that’s the best our leaders can come up with, Australia should have voted Green last election to speed the inevitable recession and blackouts that will eventually kill this tsunami of energy nonsense.

“Hydrogen” does not supply net energy-burning it can return some of the energy used to produce it from hydrocarbons or electrolysis of water. It is an expensive explosive gas that makes less sense than Snowy 2 - more energy in than out!

Moreover, we have no infrastructure that can safely store, distribute or use hydrogen in our transport fleet, energy network or smelters. Governments should not force energy consumers or tax payers to promote Canberra’s thought bubbles - let the “green hydrogen” entrepreneurs risk their own or shareholders’ money.

“Carbon capture and storage” is another dumb idea. To capture CO2 emissions from coal, gas or biomass power stations consumes a lot of energy to separate, store, pipe and pump it underground (hoping it will stay there). It would be far better leave non-polluting CO2 in the lower atmosphere and surround every power station with crops and forests hungry for the CO2 plant food so essential to their growth. 

Trying to extract CO2 from the atmosphere is even dumber because the mighty oceans will quickly release CO2 from their huge stores to restore equilibrium between atmosphere and oceans. Even if it could be done, it is a bad idea – why steal plant food from grass, crops and forests?

“Soil carbon” is green-speak for what every sensible pastoralist tries to do – increase the humus and biological activity in soil. The quickest way to do this is via keyline/contour ripping to retain water in the soil (as shown in Australia by P A Yeoman), and by managed periodic heavy impact of grazing animals to promote pasture growth (as shown in Africa by Alan Savory). But it is total nonsense to turn “carbon farming” into a costly rural rort run by a bureaucracy of soil samplers and modellers who think it will cool the climate.

“Biofuels” are another way to waste energy, food crops and trees to do jobs better done by coal, gas and oil - a crime against humanity and the environment.

If our Minister for Promoting Useless Energy is determined to sequester and store carbon, there is only one sensible way - restore the forestry industry. Harvest mature forest trees for poles, posts, sleepers, paper, cardboard or dance floors. Then replant with new trees. Young trees grow rapidly and extract much CO2. But old trees reach a stage of carbon equilibrium when the CO2 they extract in summer is equal to what they lose as leaves, branches and trunks fall to frosts, droughts, bushfires and termites.


Viv Forbes
Washpool   Qld   Australia 4306

Viv Forbes is a geologist, financial analyst, weather watcher and pastoralist with long experience at maintaining the health of pastures and soils. He and his wife have used a Yeoman ripper for about 30 years and have studied and practiced Savory animal management techniques for a similar time. He is Executive Director of the Saltbush Club.

Reading:

Simon Benson “Hydrogen provides lift in post-Covid tech recovery”. 
The Australian - Page 1 & 4 : 21 May 2020 
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coronavirus-hydrogen-a-key-player-for-tech-recovery/news-story/5b32c19342c75b47aea1685dc6f7f79a

The Carbon Capture Con:

“Livestock are the Solution not the problem”: 

P A Yeomans, 1965: “Water for Every Farm”, K G Murray Publishing.

“The fundamental reason why carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is critically important to biology is that there is so little of it. A field of corn growing in full sunlight in the middle of the day uses up all of the carbon dioxide within a metre of the ground in about five minutes.”  Freeman Dyson - a prominent scientist specialising in physics, mathematics and astronomy.


Wednesday, 20 May 2020

AGW Disproved again

AGW Disproved; again.

Anthony Cox

The International Energy Agency, IEA, states that due to the Chinese virus human emissions of CO2 will drop by 8%.


For years we have had the alarmists telling us that the increase in CO2 causes climate change and that human emissions of CO2 have caused CO2 to increase.

So, if human emissions are causing all the increase in atmospheric CO2 you would expect if human emissions of CO2 are falling, sharply, then atmospheric CO2 should also be decreasing. 
Is atmospheric CO2 decreasing? 
No:

Tuesday, 19 May 2020

Energy & Environmental Newsletter May 18, 2020

May 18, 2020/in EnergyEnvironment /





Our latest Energy & Environmental Newsletter is now available... For the full version of this issue, go here…  To review some of the highlights, see below.

Two COVID-19 upbeat specials:
Version of Paul Simon’s song: Fifty Ways to Catch Corona
Version of Billy Joel’s song: We Didn't Start the Virus

Based on serious concerns for our Country, a letter with multiple COVID-19 recommendations was written and signed by 70 scientists, economists, medical professionals, etc. It was delivered to the President last week by a member of the House Republican leadership. Two sample write-ups about it are: here and here.

My votes for the most outstanding articles this cycle are:
——————————
Climate Change – Ebb and Flow of the Tide: Part 1Part 2 & Part 3
The Strategic Conquest of America: Part 1 & Part 2 Part 3
Good short video about President Trump

COVID-19: Therapies and Prevention 

COVID-19: Models and Data 

COVID-19: Misc 

Greed Energy Economics —

Renewable Energy Health and Eco-system Consequences —

Solar Energy —

Nuclear Energy —

Natural Gas Energy —

Misc Energy —

Manmade Global Warming: Some Deceptions —

Manmade Global Warming: Misc —
Climate Change – Ebb and Flow of the Tide: Part 1, Part 2 & Part 3

Education Related —

US Politics and Socialism —
The Strategic Conquest of America: Part 1 & Part 2 & Part 3

US Politics and China —

Other US Politics and Related —
Good short video about President Trump

Science and Misc Matters —

scaremongering ain’t going to cut it any more

John Droz, jr.
physicist & citizen advocate

Note 1: We recommend reading the Newsletter on your computer, not your phone, as some documents (e.g. PDFs) are much easier to read on a large computer screen… We’ve tried to use common fonts, etc. to minimize display issues.
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Note 4: Our intention is to put some balance into what most people see from the mainstream media about energy, environmental and education issues… If you want to know our perspective on current events, please read the Big Picture New Year/New Decade commentary.
Note 5: See this extensive list of reasonable books on climate change. As a parallel effort, we have also put together a list of some good books related to industrial wind energy.
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Note 7: This Newsletter is intended to supplement the material on our website, WiseEnergy.org. (For wind warriors, the most important page there is the Winning page.)
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