Thursday, 5 December 2019

Climate News - December 2019

A review and commentary on topical matters concerning the science, economics, and governance associated with climate change developments.

Alan Moran
1 December 2019
Climate Science
11,000 'scientists' sign a petition that, in the absence of massive emission reductions, the end of the world is nigh. Micky Mouse was among the signatories.  Ezra Levant found the 400 Canadian signatories were undergrads, people with phoney diplomas, yoga teachers, experts in reincarnation and romance, and hypnotists.  There were no recognised Canadian climate scientists.

Jo Nova shows that only 156 (1%) of the 11,000 have the word “climate” in their job title or speciality, most these being experts in adapting or mitigating climate change. She reprises a petition ten years ago of 31,487 American Scientists, including 9,029 with PhD’s, that said there was no convincing evidence of catastrophic man-made warming. 

New models of temperature tracking are being developed, the old ones having performed poorly as shown by examining the inaccuracy of projections from the 2005 IPCC report. In the graph below the black line shows actual temperatures and coloured lines are forecasts.
The poor performance was due to the models magnifying the effect of CO2.  The new models, known as CMIP6, judging by two published this month, have an even greater magnification of the CO2 effect and are therefore likely to be even less accurate.

An editorial in Nature suggests that “tipping points” (loss of ice, forests, pestilences, droughts etc.) of global system meltdowns may be more likely than IPCC and other scientists have previously judged.  It says the time scale is still under our control, “The rate of melting depends on the magnitude of warming above the tipping point. At 1.5 °C, it could take 10,000 years to unfold; above 2 °C it could take less than 1,000 years.”  A more pressing problem is the alleged threat of climate change to the Prosecco wine grapes.

The climate catastrophians, may not be moved by facts, like the comprehensive US hurricane data, compiled by Roger Pielke, which shows the downward trend continued in 2019.
Also not in the alarmists' script is the current extreme cold in the northern hemisphere, Finland actually logging record lows and Canada having the most extensive snow coverage since records began in 1998. It has been cold in Norway too but warmistas will take comfort from Longyearbyen, Svalbard where it’s been warmer-than-average for the past 107 months in a row!

Tony Thomas'  "Climate Science Proves Scams Don’t Die of Exposure" recalls the tenth anniversary of “climategate” under which climate alarmists’ leaked material showed the fraud and invention used to “prove” global warming. But this has not stopped the momentum.
Climate Politics
Trump commences Paris withdrawal, “because of the unfair economic burden imposed on American workers, businesses, and taxpayers by U.S. pledges. The United States has reduced all types of emissions, even as we grow our economy and ensure our citizens’ access to affordable energy." Top Democrat Tom Carper spokesman called the action, “shameful and cowardly when we need to be brave and act boldly”.

US Democrats are seeking more finance for activists in order to control banks’ policies on climate and energy.  That would be money syphoned off from the taxpayer in order to tyrannise them with higher prices and controls by the clerisy.

The European Investment Bank (EIB), having stopped lending for coal in 2013, is now to stop lending to gas and oil.  This brings it closer to becoming the European “climate bank” promised by incoming EU Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen.  In 2018, 30% of the EIB’s financing,€16.2 billion, went to climate action projects. 

The EU Parliament has endorsed this with an upping of the emissions target reduction from 40 per cent to 45 per cent and voting that we face a “climate emergency”.  That move will not help Tata Steel, which is to cut 3,000 of 21,000 jobs in Europe. Faced with the failing EU economy aggravated by its high energy costs due to climate change policies. Tata is expanding output in India.  The idiocy of European policies to increase thermal energy prices is illustrated here.

While the usual ill-informed protesters spat on and assaulted attendees at the international mining conference in Melbourne, at the Cape Town Africa Oil Week conference they were almost absent and politicians extolled the necessity of fossil fuels.

Meanwhile in Chile we are seeing the first popular vote against carbon tax impositions in unrest that started with metro fares being hiked to pay for green energy.

Italy is to make classes on climate change compulsory in school.  No, not the truth that the climate is doing what it has always done but the fabrication that tropical fish are moving to temperate zones, wine production is threatened and other alarmist claptrap.  The eccentric Five Star party has the education portfolio.

Fires in Australia are destroying the properties of the hippies, who campaigned for the national parks, no fuel clearance and prevention of logging that has caused the damage. As in California, the greens and their media cheer squad blame coal and global warming. Australian Nationals leader Michael McCormack spoke of "woke capital city greenies" ravings and was labelled a “dangerous fool” for rejecting coal-induced warming as the cause. But Victoria’s government is seeking carbon credits from the Commonwealth for creating additional national parks with apparent support of the federal Environment Minister
Climate Economics
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates a two per cent increase in CO2 emissions from energy this year.It also shows the Mission Impossible trajectory of emission cuts necessary to meet what it calls the “sustainable development” goal of the Paris target. With coal oil and gas rising, they would need to see a precipitous decline right now.
The anti-coal lobby group, ENDCOAL, finds that China, unlike the aggregate of other countries, is piling into new coal developments.   From January 2018 to June 2019, China increased its coal fleet by 43 GW, while countries outside of China decreased their total coal power capacity by 8 GW.
Here are the net additions over the past decade:
Due to the reduction in China’s demand, Bloomberg New Energy Finance show a reduction in wind/solar investment in developing countries last year.
Ahead of the Madrid climate conference, China is accusing the developed world of doing too little to combat climate change and its supposed effects. But, reversing its 2016 position of an acceleration towards renewables, Premier Li Keqiang has announced that  China is now intensifying its efforts to develop oil and coal. Little wonder that it is concerned about EU proposals to introduce a border tax on greenhouse gases incorporated in imports.

Canadian economists have determined the best way to meet the government’s climate goals is a carbon tax of $210 per tonne.  They say, “Other policy approaches, though less visible, are more costly.” As that tax rate means a fourfold increase in wholesale prices, the government will doubtless opt for measures that disguise its own culpability.   Ontario Premier Doug Ford is, however, tearing up his predecessor’s green energy contracts

By combining BP world energy data and US employment David Middleton demonstrates that not only is fossil fuel energy production far more productive than wind/solar, but that it employs three times as many people.
Elizabeth Warren takes the contrary view with a spurious claim that her plans for addressing climate change will "create more than a million good jobs here at home."
Whimsy
Australian Labor Party icon, Theo Theophanus calls for a carbon tax on pets that would raise $100 million for carbon credits in Victoria alone. No sign, however, that current MPs share such suicidal thoughts.

Peak idiocy rolls on, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez claimed that fighting "white supremacy" is a fundamental part of combatting climate change.

Billionaire activist and Presidential aspirant Tom Steyer goes the full Greta and proclaims climate change is scarier than threats to democracy.

Blaming global warming for walruses falling off cliffs in Our Planet, David Attenborough used the same footage in Seven Worlds, where he said polar bears' hunting was the cause.
Links to my November articles on climate change issues
In the Spectator, I wrote about Ross Garnaut, whose 2008 report armed PM Rudd’s climate change agenda, claiming hydrogen will propel Australia into energy leadership.

In Quadrant and Catallaxy, I discussed the slowdown in growth caused by low investment and regulatory measures bringing counterproductive investment, including in renewables.

In Quadrant I also addressed the negative effects of the Victorian government’s policies to exclude commercial and leisure activities from public lands, ostensibly to promote environmentalist goals.