NZCLIMATE TRUTH NEWSLETTER NO 327
by IPCC Expert Reviewer Dr Vincent Gray
JULY 3RD 2016
The aim of statistics is to model a particular phenomenon on the basis of scientific measurements. Statistics of climate take into account temperature, wind speed, rain, air pressure, and many other variables. The best that can be done on the basis of these variables is to forecast future climate to +-2 degrees accuracy, with a bias of +-1 degree, covering a period of a few days. Incidentally, it is not necessary to take carbon dioxide measurements into account for such forecasts.
I argue that the following errors are made:
- Having selected a completely false claim for temperature, this is used to claim a false model of the climate.
- All normal statistics necessitate admissions of variability. However, none are supplied by this technique.
- This is based on the assumption that the climate is constant, whereas it varies over time. Even the variability of the climate is not constant - it is variable, and satellites prove it.
I am surprised at the number of people who have accepted these false ideas, and have failed to notice the above points.