All Scientists are Sceptics ~Professor Bob Carter

Whenever someone asserts that a scientific question is “settled,” they tell me immediately that they don’t understand the first thing about science. Science is never settled. Dr David Deming

Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the science of climate change is the lack of any real substance in attempts to justify the hypothesis ~Professor Stewart Franks

A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at: http://thepeoplescube.com/lenin/lenin-s-own-20-monster-quotes-t185.html#sthash.aTrSI3tG.dpuf

Tuesday, 5 July 2016

False "Climate Change" Statistics

NZCLIMATE TRUTH NEWSLETTER NO 327

by IPCC Expert Reviewer Dr Vincent Gray

JULY  3RD 2016 


Statistics:

The aim of statistics is to model a particular phenomenon on the basis of scientific measurements. Statistics of climate take into account temperature, wind speed, rain, air pressure, and many other variables. The best that can be done on the basis of these variables is to forecast future climate to +-2 degrees accuracy, with a bias of +-1 degree, covering a period of a few days. Incidentally, it is not necessary to take carbon dioxide measurements into account for such forecasts.


I argue that the following errors are made:

  1.   Having selected a completely false claim for temperature, this is used to claim a false model of the climate.
  2.   All normal statistics necessitate admissions of variability. However, none are supplied by this technique.
  3.  This is based on the assumption that the climate is constant, whereas it varies over time. Even the variability of the climate is not constant - it is variable, and satellites prove it.

I am surprised at the number of people who have accepted these false ideas, and have failed to notice the above points.

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