Monday, 2 February 2015

Flawed Cherry Picking BOM


At the beginning of every year, as regular as clockwork, we get several alarmist reports.

First, the much refuted "Last year XXXX was the warmest ever."
Oh, we are 38% certain that it was..er....that means we are 62% sure that it wasn't.
Then we get the disaster report jointly issued by CSIRO/BoM. Science Fiction.

Quote from this year's report: (link)
Data collected and analysed by the Bureau of Meteorology show that 2014 was Australia's third-warmest year on record
(3rd)  Warmest Year on Record? A few sentences later there is a qualification:
2014 was Australia's third-warmest year since national temperature observations commenced in 1910. 
Hello-o-o-o! When did records begin? Well, for Sydney, Wikipedia notes: (link)
The Bureau of Meteorology has reported that 2002 through 2005 were the warmest summers in Sydney since records began in 1859. 
As Scientist Jennifer Marohasy wrote to Bob Baldwin , Parliamentary Secretary for the Minister to the Environment: (link)
 Start the official record from 1880, not 1910, thus including the hot years of the Federation drought (1895-1903).   To suggest this is impossible because there were no Stevenson screens before 1910 is inconsistent with the historical record, which shows there were even Stevenson screens installed at locations in Western Australia from 1880.
Hmmm...and they accuse US of cherry-picking!

How about the BoM's recent work?

Warwick Hughes exposes some recent BoM failed predictions: (Thanks, Warwick.)

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY PREDICTED A DRY JANUARY BUT IT TURNED OUT VERY WET


January Rain Outlook:


January actual rain percentages :


And again, from Warwick Hughes:

JANUARY DAYS OVER AUSTRALIA THE COOLEST SINCE 2000 – CONTRARY TO BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY PREDICTIONS

Maps tell the story – first the Outlook prediction for a hot January:


Then the real world result:


Projected to Actual- does not give one much faith in the Bureau of Meteorology.