All Scientists are Sceptics ~Professor Bob Carter

Whenever someone asserts that a scientific question is “settled,” they tell me immediately that they don’t understand the first thing about science. Science is never settled. Dr David Deming

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A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at:
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at:
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at:

Tuesday, 11 August 2015

Arctic Ice Melt IS a natural cycle

Another debunking of one of UNSkeptical UNScience -SS's- so-called "Myths." This time debunking their #29

"Arctic ice
melt is a natural cycle"
Thick arctic sea ice is undergoing a rapid retreat.

SS say that
Satellite measurements of Arctic sea ice extent reveal a rapid decline over the past 30 years, particularly at the end of each year's annual melt season.  The downward trend and the increasing difference between seasons are in keeping with predictions of the effects of global warming
and show this graph from NSIDC:
 SS Graph ends in 2009 with an upturn

As Steve Goddard tweeted today(11/8/2015):

 Anthony Cox writes:

Arctic ice melt is a natural cycle.

Sure is. See items 44, 95.

First of all the alarmists predicted the Arctic would be free of Summer ice in by 2013.

That was wrong.

Peer reviewed papers show the Arctic had less ice in the Holocene warm period 6-10000 years ago.
The top graph shows simulated annual mean sea ice thickness [orange curve] was
much less during the Holocene Climate Optimum ~13,000-6,000 years ago
compared to the end of the 20th century at right side of graph.
The bottom graph shows multiple proxies of sea ice with darker green
indicating periods of less sea ice. Modern sea ice is at high levels in
comparison to the rest of the Holocene.

That was natural. The current Arctic ice reduction, not loss, which sounds much worse, is correlated with the Sun.

What a surprise!

AND  is also natural; so natural that scientists cannot distinguish natural warming from any alleged AGW.

Scientists are now saying that natural climate forces account for a “substantial” amount of the (arctic) region’s warming in the past three decades. 
A new study found that natural forces could account for as much as half of Arctic warming.

Tropical forcing of the recent rapid Arctic warming in northeastern Canada and Greenland

  • Rapid Arctic warming and sea-ice reduction in the Arctic Ocean are widely attributed to anthropogenic climate change123. The Arctic warming exceeds the global average warming because of feedbacks that include sea-ice reduction45 and other dynamical and radiative feedbacks678910111213. We find that the most prominent annual mean surface and tropospheric warming in the Arctic since 1979 has occurred in northeastern Canada and Greenland. In this region, much of the year-to-year temperature variability is associated with the leading mode of large-scale circulation variability in the North Atlantic, namely, the North Atlantic Oscillation1415. Here we show that the recent warming in this region is strongly associated with a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is a response to anomalous Rossby wave-train activity originating in the tropical Pacific. Atmospheric model experiments forced by prescribed tropical sea surface temperatures simulate the observed circulation changes and associated tropospheric and surface warming over northeastern Canada and Greenland. Experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (ref. 16) models with prescribed anthropogenic forcing show no similar circulation changes related to the North Atlantic Oscillation or associated tropospheric warming. This suggests that a substantial portion of recent warming in the northeastern Canada and Greenland sector of the Arctic arises from unforced natural variability.

1 comment:

  1. If you look at research on deposits in the Fram Straits, you will find that for most of the first 2/3 or so of the Holocene, Arctic sea ice was more like a winter only occurrence. (also look up "neoglaciation")

    Arctic sea ice is actually anomalously high compared to the rest of the Holocene, which makes sense because we are actually only just climbing out of the coldest period in the whole of the last 10,000 years.

    Unfortunately, its beginning to look like that brief, but highly beneficial, warming has finished :-(



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