Friday, 10 July 2015

Neptune IS Warming

UNSkeptical UNScience in their list of supposed climate change myths, have at #81

81"Neptune is warming"And the sun is cooling.

Anthony Cox writes:

The major TSI datasets all agree there has been a large fall since 2003, in terms of 11 year smoothing (which is obviously required to remove the sunspot cycle and reveal the underlying trend). The SORCE/TIM reconstruction shows the fall starting in 1994. The “composite TSI” is that used by David to drive the model, averaging Lean 2000 (to the end of 2008), PMOD, and ACRIM (from the start of 1992).  Source Jo Nova

Neptune is warming. (see items 28 and 43) That should give real estate prices a boost. And the Sun is not cooling as the alarmists chant; it’s still above the average and has declined since about 2003; let’s look at TSI, again, and read David Stockwell, again. What TSI is doing explains temperature, no doubt about that. On Earth and Neptune.   

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1000frolly writes

The climate changes or global warming observed on the planet Neptune correlate with those seen on Earth over the same time period; 1920 - 2002.

The common factor in the causation of the observed planetary changes are the simultaneous documented changes in the Sun.

Lockwood & Thompson 1991;
Sromovsky et al 2003;

The Sromovsky paper is surprised by the strength of the changes, 1990-2002; 
"From 1972 to 1980 Neptune's reflectivity appeared to correlate well with solar UV variations during the 11-year solar cycle (Lockwood and Thompson, 2002, 1986; Baines and Smith, 1990). But from 1980 to 2000, Neptune brightened continuously, by 11% at 472 nm, with most of the increase coming after 1990".

The nature of Neptune’s increasing brightness: evidence for a seasonal response  
L.A. Sromovsky, P.M. Fry, S.S. Limaye, and K.H. Bainesb

Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations in August 2002 show that Neptune’s disk-averaged reflectivity increased significantly since 1996, by 3.2 ± 0.3% at 467 nm, 5.6 ± 0.6% at 673 nm, and 40 ± 4% in the 850–1000 nm band, which mainly results from dramatic brightness increases in restricted latitude bands. When 467-nm HST observations from 1994 to 2002 are added to the 472-nm ground-based results of Lockwood and Thompson (2002, Icarus 56, 37–51), the combined disk-averaged variation from 1972 to 2002 is consistent with a simple seasonal model having a hemispheric response delay relative to solar forcing of 30 years (73% of a full season).

© 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Slam Dunk - UNSkeptical UNScience debunked again.

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