All Scientists are Sceptics ~Professor Bob Carter

Whenever someone asserts that a scientific question is “settled,” they tell me immediately that they don’t understand the first thing about science. Science is never settled. Dr David Deming

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A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at:
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at:
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin - See more at:

Monday, 2 February 2015

Flawed Cherry Picking BOM

At the beginning of every year, as regular as clockwork, we get several alarmist reports.

First, the much refuted "Last year XXXX was the warmest ever."
Oh, we are 38% certain that it means we are 62% sure that it wasn't.
Then we get the disaster report jointly issued by CSIRO/BoM. Science Fiction.

Quote from this year's report: (link)
Data collected and analysed by the Bureau of Meteorology show that 2014 was Australia's third-warmest year on record
(3rd)  Warmest Year on Record? A few sentences later there is a qualification:
2014 was Australia's third-warmest year since national temperature observations commenced in 1910. 
Hello-o-o-o! When did records begin? Well, for Sydney, Wikipedia notes: (link)
The Bureau of Meteorology has reported that 2002 through 2005 were the warmest summers in Sydney since records began in 1859. 
As Scientist Jennifer Marohasy wrote to Bob Baldwin , Parliamentary Secretary for the Minister to the Environment: (link)
 Start the official record from 1880, not 1910, thus including the hot years of the Federation drought (1895-1903).   To suggest this is impossible because there were no Stevenson screens before 1910 is inconsistent with the historical record, which shows there were even Stevenson screens installed at locations in Western Australia from 1880.
Hmmm...and they accuse US of cherry-picking!

How about the BoM's recent work?

Warwick Hughes exposes some recent BoM failed predictions: (Thanks, Warwick.)


January Rain Outlook:

January actual rain percentages :

And again, from Warwick Hughes:


Maps tell the story – first the Outlook prediction for a hot January:

Then the real world result:

Projected to Actual- does not give one much faith in the Bureau of Meteorology.

1 comment:

  1. Forcings (per unit area) have units Watts i.e. Joules/sec. To produce energy change (Joules), the forcing must exist for a time period. Temperature change is energy change divided by effective thermal capacitance. Thus a scale factor times the time-integral of the forcing produces the temperature change.

    CO2 has been considered to be a forcing. Because, during the previous glaciations and inter-glacials, the CO2 level and temperature went up and down nearly together, the energy change is obviously not a result of a scale factor times the time integral of the CO2 level. This observation actually proves that CO2 has no significant effect on temperature at least up to about 280 ppmv.

    This same type assessment over the entire Phanerozoic demonstrates that ‘climate sensitivity’ (the average global temperature increase caused by a doubling of the CO2 level to 580 ppmv from the pre-industrial level of 280 ppmv) is not significantly different from zero.

    The two natural factors that do explain average global temperature since before 1900 (including the flat since before 2001) with 95% correlation are disclosed at and also in a peer reviewed paper published in Energy and Environment, vol. 25, No. 8, 1455-1471.


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