The Great Pause marches Onward: 18 years and 2 months.

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

Global temperature update: the Pause is now 18 years 2 months

Since October 1996 there has been no global warming at all (Fig. 1). This month’s
RSS temperature plot pushes up the period without any global warming from 18
years 1 month to 18 years 2 months (indeed, very nearly 18 years 3 months). Will this devastating chart be displayed anywhere at the Lima conference? Don’t bet on it.

Figure 1. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite 
monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset shows no 
global warming for 18 years 2 months since October 1996.

The hiatus period of 18 years 2 months, or 218 months, is the farthest back one can
go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a sub-zero trend.

What will the chart look like this time next year, at the beginning of the Paris World
government conference, at which the Treaty of Copenhagen will be dusted off and
nodded through by the scientifically illiterate national negotiating delegates of
almost 200 nations, ending the freedom and democracy of the West and putting
absolute economic and political power in the hands of the grim secretariat of the UN
climate convention?

When the November 2015 RSS data are available, how many years and months of
zero global warming will have occurred? Enter our friendly competition by putting
your best estimate in comments. For guidance, at the December 2012 Doha
conference I was banned from UN climate yadayadathons for life for the grave sin of
telling the truth that there had been no global warming for 16 years. And an El Niño of unknown magnitude is expected during the boreal winter, followed by a compensating La Niña.

Figure 2. Near-term projections of warming at a rate equivalent  to 2.8 [1.9, 4.2] 
K/century, made with “substantial confidence” in IPCC (1990), January 1990 to
November 2014 (orange region and red trend line), vs. observed anomalies 
(dark blue) and trend (bright blue) at less than 1.4 K/century equivalent, taken 
as the mean of the RSS and UAH satellite monthly mean lower-troposphere 
temperature anomalies.

A quarter-century after 1990, the global-warming outturn to date – expressed as the
least-squares linear-regression trend on the mean of the RSS and UAH monthly
global mean surface temperature anomalies – is 0.34 Cº, equivalent to just 1.4
Cº/century, or a little below half of the central estimate in IPCC (1990) and well
below even the least estimate (Fig. 2).

The Great Pause is a growing embarrassment to those who had told us with
“substantial confidence” that the science was settled and the debate over. Nature had
other ideas. Though approaching 70 mutually incompatible and more or less
implausible excuses for the Pause are appearing in nervous reviewed journals and
among proselytizing scientists, the possibility that the Pause is occurring because the
computer models are simply wrong about the sensitivity of temperature to manmade
greenhouse gases can no longer be dismissed, and will be demonstrated in a major
paper to be published shortly in the Orient’s leading science journal.

Remarkably, even the IPCC’s latest and much reduced near-term global-warming
projections are also excessive (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Predicted temperature change, January 2005 to October 2014, at a rate
equivalent to 1.7 [1.0, 2.3] Cº/century (orange zone with thick red best-estimate trend
line), compared with the observed anomalies (dark blue) and zero real-world trend
(bright blue), taken as the average of the RSS and UAH satellite lower-troposphere
temperature anomalies.

In 1990, the IPCC’s central estimate of near-term warming was higher by two-thirds
than it is today. Then it was 2.8ºC/century equivalent. Now it is just 1.7 Cº equivalent
– and, as Fig. 3 shows, even that is proving to be a substantial exaggeration.

On the RSS satellite data, there has been no global warming statistically
distinguishable from zero for more than 26 years. None of the models predicted that,
in effect, there would be no global warming for a quarter of a century.

Key facts about global temperature

 The RSS satellite dataset shows no global warming at all for 218 months from October 1996 to November 2014 – more than half the 430-month satellite record. 
 The global warming trend since 1900 is equivalent to 0.8 Cº per century. This is well within natural variability and may not have much to do with us. 
 Since 1950, when a human influence on global temperature first became theoretically possible, the global warming trend has been equivalent to below 1.2 Cº per century. 
 The fastest warming rate lasting ten years or more since 1950 occurred over the 33 years from 1974 to 2006. It was equivalent to 2.0 Cº per century. 
 In 1990, the IPCC’s mid-range prediction of near-term warming was equivalent to 2.8 Cº per century, higher by two-thirds than its current prediction of 1.7 Cº/century 
 The global warming trend since 1990, when the IPCC wrote its first report, is equivalent to below 1.4 Cº per century – half of what the IPCC had then predicted. 
 Though the IPCC has cut its near-term warming prediction, it has not cut its high-end business as usual centennial warming prediction of 4.8 Cº warming to 2100. 
 The IPCC’s predicted 4.8 Cº warming by 2100 is well over twice the greatest rate of warming lasting more than ten years that has been measured since 1950. 
 The IPCC’s 4.8 Cº-by-2100 prediction is almost four times the observed real-world warming trend since we might in theory have begun influencing it in 1950. 
 From September 2001 to September 2014, the warming trend on the mean of the 5 global-temperature datasets is nil. No warming for 13 years 1 month. 
 Recent extreme weather cannot be blamed on global warming, because there has not been any global warming. It is as simple as that.


  1. CO2 cannot warm our globe, it's impossible. Why? Because our earth always has 50% Sunshine (warming) and 50% Darkness (cooling). Thus the warming is cancelled out by the cooling, and vica versa. Thus rendering CO2 temperature Neutral, just like every other element on earth. Everything both warms and cools. Everything.

    1. You are just flat out wrong , terrestrial radiation escaping at night is affected by such things , for instance cloud cover has a HUGE effect on the amount of radiation escaping during the night , this is why frosts tend to happen on clear nights , more terrestrial radiation (infrared ) escape thus cooling the ground more than if there was cloud cover , to "bounce back a higher proportion of the terrestrial radiation .

      Now we all know that clouds aren't made of CO2 but H2O , but I have just shown you that differing concentrations of certain gases ( locally in this case) directly effect the amount of terrestrial radiation that can escape .

      Skepticism is great , however when one becomes cynical of everything this is just as bad as being gullible ,

      When you state that all gases are created equal and have the same properties ( in this case their ability to trap heat ) , you are denying BASIC scientific principles .

      "Everything both warms and cools. Everything. "
      Yes I'll grant you that , but at different rates and amounts depending on different variables ,

      Would you like some meteorological links ? I'm not saying your right or wrong on AGW but you need to get the basics first to even be able to understand the underlying processes ,

  2. Why do you refer to the weather as "extreme".. this only re-enforces the alarmists jaded view. The weather is what it always has been, sometimes fine , sometimes rough. The variable in the equation is the distribution of population, and the precious generation's soft ,weak, urban based view of what nature is about.. the little darling are quite sure that they are having it tougher than their ancestors. Brisbane based television , when dribbling on about weather "extremes", constantly refers to "out west" which invariably turns out to be bloody Ipswich, the adjoining city whose CBD would be flat out being 40 K's from Brisbane CBD , as the allegedly near extinct crow flies. The only "extreme" thing is the number of people affected... if the same event happened at Mungalala they wouldn't give a rats arse, or even bother mentioning it in the news.

  3. To measure the amount of global warming you cant just measure the atmosphere, melting ice and increased ocean warming all take heat out of the atmosphere. Also there are natural events such as volcanic eruptions that cause cooling.


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