Great Pause is now two months longer than it was last month. Would this year’s el Niño
bite soon enough to stop the psychologically-significant 18-year threshold from being
The official answer is No.
Globally, September was scarcely warmer than August, which was itself some distance
below the 18-year trend-line. Therefore, taking the least-squares linear-regression trend
on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomalies, there has now
been no global warming for 18 years 1 month.
Dr Benny Peiser, our good friend at the Global Warming Policy Foundation in the UK,
had anticipated the official crossing of the 18-year threshold by a day or two with an
interesting note circulated to supporters on the ever-lengthening period without any
global warming, and featuring our 17-years-11-months graph from last month.
The Great Pause is the longest continuous period without any warming in the global
instrumental temperature record since the satellites first watched in 1979. It has
endured for a little over half the satellite temperature record. Yet the Pause coincides
with a continuing, rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration.
RSS monthly global mean lower-troposphere temperature anomalies (dark blue)
and trend (thick bright blue line), September 1996 to September 2014, showing
no trend for 18 years 1 month.
See the full report HERE