IPCC Expert Reviewer VINCENT GRAY's
NZCLIMATE
TRUTH NEWSLETTER NO 329
24th MARCH 2014
 |
Artistic Depiction of
Nuclear Winter |
ENVIRONMENTAL
SCAMS
In order to impose on the world their dogmas and
restrictions, the Environmental Movement has abandoned rational discussion,
scientific method and open debate and adopted the principle that the
ends justify the means. Distortion and fabrication of evidence has become routine,
and is a feature of our news bulletins, scientific journals, schools and university
departments. Sceptics are “deniers”, hounded from employment and publishable
only on the Internet. Exaggeration, partial evidence, speculation and
unjustified assumptions are compounded, often with the help of computers, to
provide scare scenarios for the future.
The following are examples
This idea from the early 1980s arose from the
popularity of computer models and was promoted by the physicist Carl Sagan. It
was claimed that a serious nuclear war would not only cause many deaths and a
disruption of human existence but would cause so much soot and other aerosols
in the atmosphere that all plant life on earth would die.
The use of nuclear weapons would undoubtedly cause considerable
harm. Since some 93% of them are in the arsenals of Russia and the USA the
priority is avoiding a war between them, something which we hope has become
increasingly remote. As for the rest we should note that even nuclear bombing
of modern towns, largely built from concrete and steel, would not contribute the
vast amounts of smoke required for this theory
We hope an international treaty for the abolition
and destruction of such weapons may progress. Unfortunately this is unlikely
until all states have a free choice, rather than being pushed around by those
who own them already.
Sagan expected that the fires in the Kuwait
oilfields would provide a “nuclear winter”. But he got it wrong. Some who think that Beijing air pollution
could be disastrous are unaware that similar problems of air pollution in Britain
and elsewhere have been successfully solved without a possible “nuclear winter.”
.
When I lived in Manchester in 1951 I recall a “pea
soup fog” where I could not see an illuminated street lamp. I was a member of
the Clean Air Society at the time. This Society was dissolved when a policy of
clean air was adopted by most local bodies, despite occasional lapses.
SILENT
SPRING
Silent Spring by
biologist/zoologist Rachel Carson (Houghton Mifflin 1962) warned of the dangers that DDT allegedly posed to all manner of
plant, animal, and human life. These threats were so great, said Carson, that
on balance they more than negated whatever benefits were to be gained from
using the pesticide to prevent malaria.
Carson claimed that the
atmospheric presence of DDT and its metabolites, DDE
(Dichloro-Diphenyldichloro-Ethylene) and DDD
(Dichloro-Diphenyl-Dichloroethane), caused the shells of bird eggs to become
thinner, thereby leading to an increased incidence of egg breakage and/or
embryo death. This, Carson postulated, would severely interfere with bird
reproduction and ultimately would lead to a “silent spring” bereft of the
familiar sounds of birdsongs.
She also stated that the overall rise
in U.S. cancer rates between 1940 (the dawn of the DDT era) and 1960 proved
that DDT was a carcinogen. She predicted that DDT and other pesticides would
spark a cancer epidemic that would wipe out “practically 100 percent” of the
human population.
After seven months of hearings in 1971, which produced 125 witnesses
and 9,362 pages of testimony, EPA Judge Edmund Sweeney concluded that according
to the evidence:
DDT is not a
carcinogenic hazard to man ... is not a mutagenic or
teratogenic hazard to man ... [and the] use of DDT under the regulations involved here do not have
a deleterious effect on freshwater fish, estuarine organisms, wild birds or
other wildlife.
The banning of the use of DDT has
caused great harm to their precious “environment” because supposedly “organic”
agriculture, campaigns against improved genetically engineered crops, and the
production of biofuels require extra
land, which has to come from clearing native reserves, with harm to the
native birds. The cost of food is increased and so world poverty.
The withdrawal of DDT is thought to
have caused the deaths of an extrea 50 million victims of malaria.
In September 2006, the WHO announced that it would thenceforth actively support indoor spraying of the chemical as a prevention of malaria “not
only in epidemic areas but also in areas with constant and high malaria
transmission, including throughout Africa.” “The scientific and programmatic
evidence clearly supports this reassessment,”said Dr. Anarfi Asamoa-Baah, WHO assistant director-general for
HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria. “DDT presents no health risk when used
properly.”
Elaborating on this theme, the WHO issued a statement asserting that DDT “provides the most
effective, cheapest, and safest means of abating and eradicating” infectious
diseases like malaria and typhus, which “may have killed half of all the people
that ever lived.”
The following table lists the
consequences of this decision
It shows that18 countries are now
either making use of DDT or planning to do so.
WORLD DYNAMICS AND
LIMITS TO GROWTH
The United Nations conference on the Human Environment,
held in Stockholm in June 1972 (Secretary-General Maurice F. Strong), was
dominated by the sensation that had been caused by the publication of two
books, World Dynamics by Jay W. Forrester (Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge
Mass. USA 1971) and Limits to Growth
by Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jφrgen Randers and William W.
Behrens III (New York, Universe Books, and London, Earth Island, 1972)
Forrester was a systems-dynamics analyst, Professor of
Management at the Alfred P. Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology. He devised an early computer model intended to
simulate the world responses to environmental change. His parameters were
population, resources, pollution, capital and agriculture. Fig 1 shows the
multitude of feedback loops , from which he derived his World 2 model.
 |
| Figure 1, Feedback Loops (Forrester 1973) |
His book actually lists all the equations he used,
taking up only two pages, a modest list by today's standards. Fig 2 shows the
main predictions of the standard run of his model, where decline is caused by
depletion of resources. Steadily increasing resource costs inhibit industrial
growth. This has the effect of lowering standards and causing population to
decline. Pollution plays no part here, unless the resource or capital declines
are inoperative. Note that the population decline is scheduled from 2020, and
the quality of life declines from 1950.
 |
| Figure 2. World Forecasts (Forrester 1973) |
The trick is to ignore the lessons of history, which
show how human progress is dependent of human ingenuity. If this disappears disaster
obviously follows.
THE
POPULATION BOMB
Paul R Erlich The
Population Bomb (Ballantine 1971) and The
Population Explosion (with Ann H Erlich, Simon and Schuster 1990) have
publicised the belief that the world’s population is too large and is exceeding
its resources.
Malthus claimed that, if unrestrained, population
will increase exponentially. But all organisms are restrained by the struggles
of evolution with other organisms. Population of any organism depends on success
in finding food, coping with predators, and ingenuity in expanding territory. Human
population increase is closely related to success in all of these factors,
Much is made of the current increases in human
population but little attention is paid to its lack of uniformity.
 |
| Figure 3 Fertility rates in different countries. |
The above map shows that fertility rates in most developed
countries are currently below the level needed to replace the present
population. In undeveloped countries, particularly most of Central Africa and a
part of India, fertility rates are above the ability of the local economy to
provide support for them.
Population programmes depend on the locality. They
need to concentrate on encouragement for childbearing in advanced countries but
for Central Africa and part of India there is a need for contraceptive advice,
empowerment of women, and industrial development .
DEPLETION
OF RESOURCES
Ehrlich and others believed the Earth's resources were becoming scarcer. Expanding
population uses them at an increased rate. Therefore he predicted that
the prices of these resources should increase. In 1980 Julian L Simon offered
Ehrlich a bet. Ehrlich could choose any five raw materials he wanted. Simon
sold Ehrlich an option to buy an amount of each raw material worth $200 in 1980
dollars. If the prices increased over the next ten years, Simon would pay
Ehrlich; however, if the prices decreased over the same time period, Ehrlich
would have to pay Simon.
Ehrlich chose five metals:
copper, chrome, nickel, tin and tungsten. The bet was on. Ten years later,
after adjusting for inflation, just as predicted, the prices of all five metals
went down. Ehrlich had lost. He sent Simon a check and nothing else. Simon
offered to bet again and up the ante to $20,000; Ehrlich declined.
Those who are capable of believing that the world
is static and has a fixed amount of resources
are also capable of believing that a static population will steadily deplete the ”resources" and decline to zero.
Fortunately the real world constantly changes. What
constitutes resources also changes, related to the requirements of
society, and its ingenuity on meeting them.
The
following figures are from the BP Statistical
Review of World Energy 2013
show how the
proved resources of various forms of energy have changed
PROVEN
ENERGY RESOURCES
Energy
|
1992
|
2002
|
2011
|
2012
|
Oil Barrelsx199
|
1039.3
|
1321.5
|
1654.1
|
1638.9
|
Gas m6
|
177.6
|
154.9
|
187.8
|
187.3
|
Coal tonnes6
|
981.8
|
984.5
|
861.0
|
|
Nuclear mt oil
eq
|
610.5
|
|
586.4
|
|
Hydro mt oil eq
|
598.5
|
|
|
851.1
|
Despite the persistent claims that the oil and gas
resources are falling they have a permanent tendency to keep on increasing.
Hydro is also increasing and nuclear power is now being planned to increase
WATER SHORTAGE
All organisms need water. Heat from the sun
evaporates it, mainly from the oceans , and deposits it as rain, hail, snow. dew
and frost. Since most precipitation on
land originated from the oceans, a steady bonus is supplied by the climate to
the land. Some may fill or replenish natural aquifers. The surplus flows from
rivers back to the sea.
Potable water is need for drinking and cooking,
Water is also needed for crops, cleaning, sewage disposal. Human settlements
have always been chosen from local accessibility to water. Human expansion has
needed measures to ensure reliability of supply. The Romans pioneered the
construction of reservoirs pipelines drainage and aqueducts.
Today their example pervades the world, and there
is the addition of the possibility of desalinating sea water, now practised by
25 different countries.
The availability of
water is usually considered to be a human right
that is available free, but supply costs money, which has to come from
somewhere, to an extent that depends on location and time of year. All claims
of water shortage can be met by the availability of finance, but this truth is
somehow often ignored.
Many current problems arise from reluctance to
maintain, modernize or expand pipelines, reservoirs or water treatment plants
to meet increases in demand. Campaigns to conserve water or limit its use are
easier to do than find or spend the money to increase services Some recent
floods in Britain were caused by neglect of drainage, recommended by
environmentalists, supposedly to benefit endangered
species.
THE
GLOBAL WARMING SCAM AND CLIMATE CHANGE SWINDLE
There is no question that the most successful scam
ever perpetrated by the environmental movement is the claim that the climate is
entirely controlled by human emissions of carbon dioxide and other minor trace
gases. This Newsletter will eventually become part of my new book of the above
title which is now in progress.
