According to the RSS satellite data, since September 1996 there has been no global warming for 209 months (17 years 5 months). NOAA’s 2008 State of the Climate report said 15+ years without warming would show a discrepancy between prediction and observation. There has been no warming in central England for 25 years.
The Lord Monckton Foundation’s monthly Global Warming Projection Index (See Below) number for February 2014 is 0.13 Cº. That is how much the IPCC’s latest central projection of global warming over the 9 years 1 month January 2005 to January 2014 has overshot the observed temperature trend. Note that the Index now takes account of the cut by almost half in the IPCC’s best estimate of near-term global warming.
If the 108-month IPCC overshoot were to continue for 100 years, the IPCC’s prediction would exceed the
measured trend by almost 1.5 Cº. Though the IPCC projects that the world should have warmed by 0.12 Cº
(1.33 Cº/century) since 2005, the mean of the RSS and UAH satellite datasets shows cooling of 0.01 Cº
(0.12 Cº/century). The predicted and actual trends continue visibly to diverge.
The trend in CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa shows a rise of 18 μatm since January 2005, equivalent to
199 μatm/century. On its own, this CO2 increase should have caused a radiative forcing of 0.25 Watts per
square meter, or 0.35 W m–2 after including the influence of all other greenhouse gases. Even without
temperature feedbacks, according to the IPCC’s methods this forcing should have caused 0.1 Cº warming.
Adding in the IPCC’s temperature estimates of temperature feedbacks and of previously-committed global
warming should have caused up to 0.3 Cº warming since January 2005. None has occurred.
- Lord Monckton said: “Recent record cold in the United States and flooding in the United Kingdom cannot have been caused by global warming because for almost two decades there has not been any.”
Around the tenth of every month, as soon as the satellite temperature data and CO2 concentration records for the previous month are available, the Lord Monckton Foundation publishes the Global Warming Prediction Index and its companion graph comparing modeled predictions against measured reality. The Foundation’s model takes full account of revisions to all data in the datasets.
The Global Warming Prediction Index reduces to a single value a comparison of predicted global warming since January 2005 with measured warming. The monthly index number is the amount by which the IPCC’s central projection has overshot or undershot the observed temperature trend since January 2005. The monthly graph (example at left) displays the IPCC’s range of projections of global warming as an orange region (representing the region bounded by the two dark green trend arrows, below left) against the mean of the global mean satellite lower- troposphere anomalies from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc., and the University of Alabama at Huntsville (dark blue spline-curve overlying the bright blue least-squares trend-line). The CO2 concentration record (gray) is from Mauna Loa, Hawaii.
The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (2013, Fig. 11.33a, left) backcasts to January 2005 the combined global-warming projections of up to 34 models under each of four radiative-forcing scenarios. Its range of projected warming, 0.3-0.7 Cº over 30 years (equivalent to 1-2.33 Cº/century), is at the low end of models’ projections.
The lower bound of the orange region on the monthly Global Warming Prediction Index graph represents the 34 models’ low-end projection of future global warming: 0.3 Cº over 30 years (1 Cº/century).
The thick, bright red line through the orange region shows the IPCC’s central projection: 0.4 Cº global warming over 30 years (1.33 Cº/century).
The high-end projection of 0.7 Cº global warming over 30 years (2.33 Cº/century) is the upper dark red line on the monthly graph.
Observed temperatures from 2005-2012 are shown in black in the IPCC’s spaghetti-graph (above). During the 2005-2012 training period, most of the models’ backcast projections are appreciably above observation. Note that the new projections shown by the green arrows are considerably below the projections in the pre-final draft of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, and signal for the first time a recognition by the IPCC that the models on which it had previously relied have consistently over-predicted global warming.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013 [in press], Fifth Assessment Report, §22.214.171.124 and Fig. 11.33a.
National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, 2013, Monthly mean Mauna Loa CO2 concentration: ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_mlo.txt.
Remote Sensing Systems, Inc., 2013, Monthly global mean lower-troposphere temperature anomalies: remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt.
University of Alabama at Huntsville, 2013, Monthly global mean lower-troposphere temperature anomalies: vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt.